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its been a few days since I posted a blog. Lay to Profit has been quiet, and still nothing today. As for the over/unders i thought it best to stay away from the last weekend of the premiership, as it was gonna be quite unpredicatable. Tonight sees Sherwsbury take on MK Dons in a game i expect to see goals in. Both tema shave goals in them, and more importantly both teams perform well when going a goal down. MK Dons are a strong team with a good away record, and Shrewsbury will know they must take something from this game, so its overs for me tonight, with a small 2-1 win for MK Dons as a side bet. Tomorrow I will be back with my thoughts on the Derby v Southampton game.
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4th August Dundee United v Aberdeen - Over 2.5 Goals - Loss Stirling Albion v Partick Thistle - Over 2.5 Goals - Loss St Mirren v Motherwell - Under 2.5 Goals - Win 6th August Hearts v Hibs - Over 2.5 Goals - Loss 11th August Falkirk v Celtic - Over 2.5 Goals - Win Bolton v Newcastle - Over 2.5 Goals - Win Wed 15th August Portsmouth v Man Utd - Over 2.5 Goals - Lost Sat 18th August Birmngham v west Ham - over 2.5 goals - Lost Berwick v Airdrie - over 2.5 goals - Lost East Stirling v Forfar - over 2.5 goals - Win Rangers v Falkirk - over 2.5 goals - Win Sun 19th August Aberdeen v Celtic - over 2.5 goals - Win Saturday 25th August Arsenal v Man City - Over 2.5 goals - Lost Sheffield Utd v West Brom - Over 2.5 Goals - Lost Gretna v Motherwell - Over 2.5 Goals - Won ICT v Dundee Utd - under 2.5 goals - Lost Dundee v Partck Thistle - Over 2.5 Goals - Won Airdrie Utd v Queens Park - Over 2.5 Goals - Lost Saturday 1st Sept Fulham v Spurs - Over 2.5 Goals - Won Bolton v Everton - Over 2.5 Goals - Won Sheffield Wednesday v Bristol City - Over 2.5 Goals - Lost Colchester v Burnley - Over 2.5 Goals - Won Leeds v Luton - Over 2.5 Goals - Lost Rotherham v Chester - Over 2.5 Goals - Lost Aberdeen v Kilmarnock - Under 2.5 Goals - Won St Mirren v Celtic - Over 2.5 Goals - Won Partick v Hamilton - Over 2.5 Goals - Won Ayr v Alloa - Over 2.5 Goals - Lost Albion v East Stirling - Over 2.5 Goals - Won
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I'll start todays blog with a recommendation. I dont know if any of you read the comments sent to this blog, but one was sent by Nick who published the TrainerFlatStats ebook. He gave a link to his own blog, which can be found at www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/blog.html I openly admit I know nothing about horse racing, I don't even enjoy watching it that much. But Nick is a bit of an expert, and reading his blog confirms that. If you want to read about someone who knows there gee-gee's then head along to his blog. I have been dissapointed in my blog of late. Mostly due to the little amount of time I can dedicate to it. This is a major problem for me as I have a busy job, and a young family. Lately I took a step back, trying to analyse where I was with gambling and was it worth carrying on. Well, my conclusion was I was far too amateur, far too complicated, but yes it was worth carrying on. To start with, I am ditching all the systems I have been paper trading. I dont have the time to do it properly. In fact, the only system I will be running will be Lay To Profit. it is an easy two minutes a day system and seems to run in profit. I am stripping everything away, and getting back to basics. I am doing what I should have done a long time ago and sticking with what I know best, football. Now Ideally I would do some trading, but my wife and daughter dont see enough of me as it is so to sit in front of a computer every night and weekend ain't fair on them. So that leaves football betting and the one I have had most success on lately has been the over/under 2.5 goals. I am going to put all my effort into this(pity the season is coming to an end) The plan then, is once I can handle the work load this entales, and am happy, i can add something else. All i am doing just now is trying to cover everything, and succeeding at nothing. So for Lay To Profit there is one selections today, Adantino in the 4.50pm at Warwick. And on to the football. Tonight's first game is Charlton v Spurs. I cant see anything other than a high scoring game here. Spurs have the worst clean sheet record in the premiership which says more about there defence than there keeper. They may be missing Robbie Keane but have plenty of goals and the excellent Berbatov up front. they also need the points to get in the UEFA cup. Charlton get relegated if they dont win so must go for it. Darren Bent is there only proven goalscorer, and it may be a shout for him as first goalscorer. A combination of there need for goals, Tottenhams high score ratio and poor defence means I will be going for an over 2.5 goals. The other game on tonight is Dunfermline v Motherwell. With the SPL splitting into two for the last 5 games it throws up games like this, where bottom placed Dunfermline meet third bottom Motherwell. Dunfermline are the third form team in the league and Stephen Kenny has them playing good football, adopting two wingers. Motherwell on the other hand have the worst form in the league, and aren't completely out of danger. Both teams have struggled to score all season, so under 2.5 goals is the call for me. I think Dunfermline will win but when you have survival to fight for anything can happen.
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Hello and welcome!
You know it's time to worry when you receive an email from someone asking if you're still alive.
Folks, I have some good news and some bad news.
The good news is that no I'm not dead. In fact, I'm far from it.
The bad news is that it's been over 60 days since I've updated this blog and that's just too long.
However, I'm back with avengence and ready to rock 'n' roll once again. I'm planning on making new posts once (maybe twice) a week and taking it from there.
But enough about that, let's move onto other things:
I discovered a pretty interesting (or it was interesting for me, anyway) football story recently on the BBC. In the 90's there was a footballer from Ghana called Abedi Pele. Now, from what I gather, 'Pele' was some footballer who played from some big sides (like Marseilles when they were one of the best teams in Europe) and I think he won 'African Player of the Year' a few times, too. Anyway, he's since retired from football and several years ago started his own football academy in Ghana. The idea was to register a team who would have to start in the bottom league and then work up the leagues to reach Ghana's top-flight. From winning successive promotions they climbed up into the second division and, on the last game of the season, needed to win to guarantee their promotion to the highest league.
What happened? They won 38-0.
Surprise, surprise the authorities looked into the matter and found that there was match fixing going on. Seriously, how dumb can you get? If you're gonna' do it, please make it believable.
Furthermore, another team who needed to win to guarantee promotion won their game 28-0. Again, investigations showed that the game had been fixed.
I'm lead to believe that everyone involved (officials, players, coaching staff, board members) have been stripped of the right to be involved in the sport of football for a few years and the teams involved have been sent down into the basement league. Rightly so, in my opinion, too.
Quick change of topic:
It's been interesting to see how many twists and turns have been made at the end of this season (in all of the leagues). From a betting perspective, it could be lucrative to start trading on teams whose prosepcts of avoiding 'the drop' look bleak (like West Ham) and vice-versa (like Wigan) with the expectation that their fortunes will turn.
Something to think about for next season, perhaps...
Have a good one,
Josh.
P.S. Let's all hope Spurs beat Charlton today and land earn European football next season. | ||
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It looks like a bit of a quiet week this week, as we only have a few games this week. On Friday I am down at Perth for a day at the Races which will in turn effect my weekend as I will no doubt be suffering. Lay To Profit has a horse racing today in the 5.40pm at Wolverhampton, Machinete, currently around 4.4 on Betfair.
Over/Under has been quiet lately but this is more due to me not having the time to do some research. Tonight we have Man U v Milan in the Champions League, a game I think will be low scoring, purely down to Man U having too many injuries and Milan playing it tight in the away leg. An early away goal may open things up but I will be keeping away from this. Also the Scottish Cup semi final between Hibs and Dunfermline will probably also be quite tight, but both teams can score goals so another to avoid. The football league games dont really fair much better, so I think I will leave them alone. I fancy over 2.5 goals in the Macclesfield v Bristol Rovers game but there isnt enough there for me to be 100% sure
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I have just had far too hectic a day to study the upcoming games this weekend, doesn't work suck!! One game that stands out for me is Liverpool v Wigan. 4/9 for Liverpool is great value, when you see Man Utd are 1/6 to beat Middlesboro.
Lay to Profit has two selections tonight at Lingsfield. they are
6.45pm - Midmaar 7.15pm - Orpsie Boy
Hope you all have a good weekend
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Well three out of three last night, not bad if I do say so myself. Its funny when things all go right for you, you think you can take on the world, but quickly you are brought back down to earth. Nothing much happening today, still no Lay To Profit selections. This filter i have added better work, because it has certainly reduced the amount of selections. Tonight I will be working on the weekend fixture list so speak with you soon | ||
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First off, Lay to Profit. You will have noticed there has been no additions to the Catagory lately. Well two reasons. One, i have been less than professional and haven't been following it. Two, i have added filters to hopefully improve the results. From tomorrow I will keep it updated the best I can. Tonight we have three premiership games, and none of them excite me. The only one that stands out is Chelsea, as I can see some goals there. The hope is that West Ham score first, or we could end up with a 0-1 result, as that is how Chelsea play. But with West Ham fighting for survival they must attack Chelsea, so over 2.5 goals is my selection. Blackburn v Watford should be a home win, with Watford's season ending last week, there relegation is just a formality. Blackburn, the other beaten semi finalists still aspire to play European football next year, but Watford are closer to survival than they are of that dream. They do have games in hand and as long as the dream is alive there players should give 100%. Finally Liverpool take on Middlesboro. Both teams need points, Liverpool to jump into third and Boro should finally seal there safety if they win. I can't see Boro winning, and cant see much goals. Apart from Arsenal in the Cup no one has scored more than one goal at Anfield this year. Liverpool also score at Anfield, with only five failures to score in the last 35 games. Liverpool will be on a high with the Champions League to come, Boro seem to have given up on there season, so I am going for 2-0 Liverpool. Finally I want to mention TrainerFlatStats. Tomorrow they have a few selections, see them below. No selection if the horse is over 14/1. Any questions regarding it, drop me a line
Newmarket
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A poor weekend, with my over/unders coming in with 2 out of 4 for a small profit. I think I called right on most of them, maybe the Reading v Fulham game should have been given more consideration. This week we have a busy schedule of games, with the top teams in the Premiership playing, and all the leagues are really hotting up. Nothing tonight though.
Lay the Profit finally has aselection after what seems an age with nothing. It is the Roman Quest in the 5.15pm at Windsor.
Hopefully soon I can start to get back into the trading on football. I hoped to start earlier but the games so far haven't appealed. It may be the case I just observe them from now until the end of the season, giving me a fresh start next season.
also want to talk about a book that is doing the rounds and you may have seen, called TrainerFlat Stats. This is a follow up to Trainer Track Stats. Matt who wrote both books has systematically went through each race course, identifying which trainer performs best at which course in which type of race. These ebooks can be a great source of information, used on there own or as part of your own system. Definitely worth checking out, i have added a link to the side of this blog. | ||
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I've just realised its Friday the 13th!! Personally I don't believe in any if that tosh, but I am sure it will affect some of your betting patterns today!! Yesterday I made a small loss, only one horse came in so a small loss there, and one out of two for my over 2.5 goals. Looking back I should have spent more time studying the form but I am new to this form of betting and will learn from it. This weekend we have a few games that I fancy, with over 2.5 goals being the theme, so here's hoping for a goalfest. The games I fancy goals in is
Man Utd v Watford Chelsea v Blackburn Arsenal v Bolton Reading v Fulham
I am also going for a long shot here, I am going to lay Celtic against St Johnstone tomorrow. 1/5 is a ridiculous price for Celtic, who have won 1 in 5, and are being outplayed and outperformed every week. St Johnstone may be a league below, but they outplayed Hibs in the CIS Cup semi final, after beating Rangers away, and also beat Dundee Utd and Falkirk in the Cup. Last week they beat top team Gretna 2-0 to keep there league campaign alive, and in Jason Scotland have a strong target man. I will have a small bet on him as first goalscorer. 10/1 is very good odds for St Johnstone but the big occasion might overwhelm them, so laying Celtic is my choice.
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So Aintree starts today, and I have decided to emrace the meet as opposed to avoiding Cheltenham. Cheltenham may be a great spectacle but try finding winners there, it aint that easy. Aintree should hopefully a bit easier. My selections for the day are
3.10 - Katchit 4.20 - Hasty Prince & Demi Beau 4.55 - Wins Now
Katchit and Wins Now are my strong fancies and I will be doubling them up. I will split my stake 50/50 on the 4.20 as I can't split either horse.
Tonight's football is the UEFA Cup and am considering a small over 2.5 goals in the Spurs game. Spurs have injury problems at the back, with Ledley King possibly being rushed back. The other game I fancy is Benfica v Espanyol, 3-0 up and cruising Espanyol let Benfica back into the tie with two goals. Both teams are capable of scoring so will be going for over 2.5 goals with this.
Thats all for now, tonight I will have a look at the weekend fixtures.
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its good to be back folks, even if i still am not back into the swing of things. Last week I was off on a course and decided to avoid all bookies, well until i stuck a few quid on Retief Goosen. Pity i backed him on the nose, instead of each way, but I did manage to trade off for a free bet. My Valencia to win the Champions League also fell away last night. And to lose to that Chelsea team was a double blow. Nothing else much happening just now, i am avoiding the Champions League games tonight, i can see both ending in a draw. No horses lays either. Hopefully there will be more action tomorrow. | ||
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A quick blog today, and nothing for at least a week, as I am off on a course next week. I really haven't had the time to look at this weekend's football, though I do fancy Sunderland to take full points at Cardiff. Apart from that I haven't managed to study properly and dont want to make half-hearted selections. Speak with you all when I get back from this course.
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So a good night last night, with both over/under bets coming in, and my correct score for the Scotland game. I still think I was justified in laying England, especially after the first half performance. I am considering backing them not to qualify for Euro 2008, as I dont believe McLaren is the right man for the job. It takes someone special to have that much talent available and make them play so badly. This win just means prolonging the agony for England fans as Mac will keep his job for the next round of games. As for Scotland, well as I thought, 2-0 defeat. I got it wrong when they didnt play Dailly but they still played too defensively. But the difference between last nights team and two years ago is like night and day. Long may the progress continue!! Nothing much happening today. I have been a bit slack with LaytoProfit lately, and the other systems I was going to paper trade. This is due to poor time management on my part, and it will continue as I am off on a course next week. Hopefully the week after that will get it going! | ||
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A quick blog today as I have a sickness bug and am off home to my bed. And its my wedding anniversary today!! My first losing bet on the over/unders last night, and no excuses, a poor game, and in hindsight I should have left it alone. Tonight two games I will be on are the Scotland and England game. Scotland will be playing Christian Dailly in front of the back four with one up front, and with Italy dangerous from set pieces, i fancy 2-0 Italy so will be going for under 2.5 goals. Lampard is out for England with Hargreaves taking his place, so I fancy taking under 4.5 goals. I will also have a small stake laying england as the knives are out and they will be feeling the pressure. Speak with you soon.
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well another winner for the over/unders last night with Oxford and Dagenham seeing out a 2-2 game. Tonight I am going for another over 2.5 goals with Rotherham playing Blackpool, and both teams looking for three points for different reasons. I said yesterday I would add the LaytoProfit selections but I didnt get time to even have a look at them. Todays selections are below
Lingfield 3.40pm - Mind Alert 4.10pm - Iowe you
Wolverhampton 2.00pm - Laith 2.30pm - Prince of Gold 3.00pm - Spanish Air 3.30pm - Inwaan 5.00pm - Hits only cash
so a busy day for the horse laying. Nothing else much happening, a few Internationals tomorrow but nothing to get excited about. Still contemplating laying England tomorrow, will keep you posted
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Over-Under had one selection over the weekend, with Chester and Barnet playing out a 2-0 home win, just as I had hoped. That makes it four out of four selections so far. Tonight Oxford Utd play Dagenham in a must win for Oxford. Dagenham have an excellent record of away goals and I expect this to be over 2.5 goals. This over, under market is quite new to me, and I am trying to build up my resources. The internet is a great source but I still have some gaps, and maybe some of you can help. I would like to find out who's refereeing a particular game, is there a site I can check out that gives out this information? I also would like to find a stats site which gives player stats including assists. I would be grateful for any recommendations on statistic sites for football.
Later today I will give out the LaytoProfit selections. Nothing else happening for me. More International football this week, of which I will again have only a small interest. I had one out of two in my Internation lays for a small profit, and I am considering laying England on Wednesday, with all this in fighting, but I will wait until nearer the time. speak to you later | ||
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Tonight see's another over/under selection for me with Mansfield hosting Macclesfield, and the visitors are desperate for points. The home team have been ravished with injuries and I expect a few goals so over 2.5 goals at evens is my fancy. This weekend see's the internationals which have no interest for me, though i will be having two selections, I will be laying both Scotland and England. Scotland are far too short for my liking, with Georgia trading at around 8's. I think a draw is quite probable with this being Alex McLeish's game. With this I am in a win/win situation. Scotland win, I am happy being a Jock. Draw or lose and I will be quids in. As for England, I can see the headlines on Sunday, Mack for the Sack. England have quite a talent for appointing the wrong coach and with Steve McLaren you have certainly done that. I dont expect him to be at Euro 2008, and I think tomorrow will be a tough game. England are certainly capable of winning it, they are far stronger, but that isn't all that matters. A lay bet is value for me, but it will be at small stakes. Have a nice weekend and I will speak with you next week | ||
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