Its been a tough decision but I have decided its best to close this blog for a while. Successful punters spend hours studying form and I just cant spare that amount of time, which inevitively makes me an unsuccessful punter. every time i think i am getting somewhere, something happens to stop me in my tracks. It could be work commitments, it could be family commitments, but this blog isnt anywhere near the standard i hoped it would be, so i think its better to walk away. but I hope one day I will be back, and wish you all the best!

Dont you bloody hate referees!! I couldn't believe that decision to send off Jon Mikel Obi, but it seems refs are getting fussier and fissier as the weeks go on. I now need to take more consideration of the referees when making my selections.

Tonight sees Arsenal v Tottenham, and both teams love to score goals, so i cant see anything other than over 2.5 goals.

lets get straight to it tonight. Two games that interest me, first off Chelsea v Everton. With Chelsea losing Michael Ession, Didier Drogba and Kalou all off to the African Cup of Nations it leaves Chelsea missing three quality players. They are still more than equiped to deal with Everton, but without Drogba the goals may be hard to come by so I am going for under 2.5goals

The second game is St Mirren v Rangers. St Mirren are on a decent run just now, as are Rangers. Rangers have Alan Hutton and Lee Mculloch missing which should help even things up, and may give St Mirren some confidence. i expect Rangers to win but St Mirren should puch them close so i am going for over 2.5 goals and a small wager on 2-1 Rangers.

Not a great weekend, with only one winning bet out of four, and my three FA Cup bets all failing. I could argue i was unlucky with Ipswich and Bristol City, but hey thats football. I did at least get the over 2.5 goals correct.

This week we have a few games tomorrow and Wednesday, mainly the Carling Cup semi's, so i will post a blog tomorrow.

Hi Folks, hope you all had a great festive period, i'd like to wish you all the best for the New Year. Its been a while since I posted, its hard work finding the time to post this blog, but the time you need to study form, watch matches etc has just been beyond me. In the past I would have just thrown money at my bets in the hope they came in, now I know better and step back if I am not 100% happy.

So a gentle way to start the New Year, I will have three small bets on todays FA Cup Final. The three selections are

Bristol City to beat Middlesbrough and the game to have over 2.5 goals

Ipswich to beat Portsmouth

Crystal Palace to beat Watford

Lets start with Bristol City v Boro. Boro have struggled all season, while City have played some excellent football, and are third in the Championship on merrit. Boro will not fancy this tie, and though they are slight favourites, and the odds aren't great, odds of 2.94 for City at home where they have only lost two league games is good enough for me. The one concern is they will have Michael McIndoe missing.

Next up is Ipswich to beat Portsmouth at 3.85. Ipswich have a brilliant home record, whereas Portsmouth cant buy a goal. They are also missing 4 kep players due to the African Cup, so Ipswich is the obvious choice.

Finally Crystal Palace to beat Watford. Watford have went off the boil lately, whereas Palace are the form team. the local derby will be a cracker i am sure, but at odds of 4.5 there is value in picking Palace.

Fingers crossed we get a good start to 2008

Just a quick note about last nights game, just how i seen it going. Definite value in the under 2.5 goals market. Lets hope this continues....

Also, looking at the weekend coupon, 4/1 for Derby to beat Sunderland has to be great value, with Derby getting Paul Jewell in place, and Sunderland suffering a 7-1 hammering last week.

speak with you soon.

Just as soon as I get up and running again I am on the move, having to work away from home for the next 10 days or so, so no blog til then.

Tuesday was two out of two losses, which wasnt good, both games just a goal short, but hey, i can live with that.

Tonight I am going for a small crazy bet, I am going for under 2.5 goals in the UEFA Cup tie between Athletico Madrid and Aberdeen at odds of 2.6 on Betfair. Sounds crazy as Aberdeen have let in 7 goals in there last two games, with Athletico scoring 10 and losing 10 in there last 3 home games. Aberdeen have no chance, I should know, I'm a Season ticket holder at Pittodrie, but ever since the draw was made this is the game everyone has been focusing on. The aberdeen players should be up for it, and will probably play 4-5-1. If Jimmy calderwood gets his tactics right we could keep it tight, if he gets them wrong we are in for a hammering. So with small odds I will be going for under 2.5 goals.

speak with you in a week or so

ok, so last night was a good call, with a 0-0 draw between Leicester and Cardiff. Both team had chances to scroe but lacked quality up front and some luck, with the woodwork saving Leicester and Schmeichael saving Cardiff.

Tonight see's the rest of the division playing. First off we have to look at Ipswich v Southampton. Southampton are having a terrible time with injuires at the back, and there keeper is facing his 13th different defensive line up in 17 matches. With this amount of changes, no wonder they have let in more goals than any others in the league with 33 goals. Ipswich can also score goals, scoring 31 so far this season, the second best in the league. They could be missing Johnathan Walters which will be a big miss, as he has scored 7 with 6 assists and that could be a big factor. So if Walters plays I will plump for over 2.5 goals, if he doesnt I will leave the game alone.

In the other matches, Coventry v Scunthorpe looks appealing, as both teams have low goals for, with Coventry scoring 1.17 goals per game, and Scunthorpe managing only 1.11 per game. At the back Scunthorpe have a better record than Coventry, with Coventry the 4th worst defensive record in the division. Coventry are also missing Michael Mifsud and Kevin Kyle, so this should be a tight game, so I am going for under 2.5 goals.

Thats it for me for tonight, fingers crossed!!

This weekend was an exercise in analysis. I decided instead of over analysing games, I would stick with my first round of selections. I wondered how gut insinct would work. And let em tell you on this evidence, it doesnt!! Out of 26 selections this weekend I only got 10 right, a very poor return. I should tell you now that I didnt back any of these with hard cash, so I didnt lose anything, but I wanted to know how i would get on. And at the very least I know that to make money in this market you need to put the work in.

This week I will be back to more traditional betting, using proper analysis!!

Tonights game with Leicester and Cardiff sees two teams who are both struggling, but both won at the weekend. with Collins John and Carl Cort missing for Leicester and Robbie Fowler missing for Cardiff goals may be hard to come by.

Leicester have only averaged a goal a game this season, while Cardiff have only managed 1.25 goals per game. Leicester also have the best defence in the league, letting in only 12 goals this season.

the only concern with this selection is the fact that it will be Ian Holloway's first home game in charge and the fans will be right up for it. The players admitted they were fired up on Saturday and beating the team sitting 4th away from home is a great result.

So tonights selection will be under 2.5 goals. I will have a small bet on this, but as there is some concern only a small interest.

okay so i am back in the thick of it and feeling much better for it. Here we go then with todays selections

These are all over 2.5 goals

Arsenal v Wigan

Birmingham v Portsmouth

Man City v Reading

Barnsley v Watford

Cardiff v Ipswich

Norwich v Coventry

Brighton v Carlisle

Huddersfield v Leyton Orient

Port Vale v Doncaster

Tranmere v Swansea

Hereford v Accrington Stanley

Macclesfield v Dag & Red

MK Dons v Chesterfield

Celtic v Aberdeen

Falkirk v Rangers

Brechin v East Fife

Livingston v Alloa

the following are under 2.5 goals

Lincoln City v Notts County

Inverness v St Mirren

Airdrie v Queens Park

Stenhousemuir v Forfar

a slightly different approach with far more selections, lets see how we get on. I have also highlighted the following games for Sunday. All are over 2.5 goals selections

West Ham v Tottenham

Cheltenham v Leeds

Gretna v Hearts

at the moment they are all selections, but until i see the line ups thsi might change

speak with you soon

Its been a quiet time for this blog lately. in reality i didnt have much to say because i have been trying to revise my plan. there was something not quite right with my selections. Now after some revision, I'm not sure I have found the problem, but time will tell.

This week we have the International matches, so I will be back with a bang this weekend!!

After being off line for a few days due to my old laptop playing up on me, I am back in business today. No selections form the weekend just past, as I couldnt access the internet, so I will start by patting myself on the back because last Wednesday all three selections came in, just as I expected.

This week starts off with Crystal Palace v Watford. Now these types of games make you stand up and take notice. Watford are the best team in the Division and are playing away from home against a team whoare in the bottom three and desperate to get points on the board.

Palace have Neil Warnock in charge now, and you have to think he will pull them away from the relegation fight. As a Premiership manager he is left wanting, but he knows the deal in the Championship. This is only his third game in charge, but after losing at home to Stoke they wont be relishing Watford.

Watford would go 6 points clear tonight if they won and i expect an open game, so lets go for over 2.5 goals

Three selections tonight, i will give explanations tomorrow. All are over 2.5 goals

Coventry v Watford

Ipswich v Colchester

West Brom v Blackpool

All I can say about yesterdays selections is I got them round the wrong way!! If only it was that simple, but hey, I called it wrong, it wont be the first time, but I will learn from it.

Check back tomorrow as there may be some selections from the Championship

Lets start by reviewing yesterdays games

Fulham v Derby - I was well off the mark with this. billy Davies was happy with the performance and the point, but that would dissapoint me if I was a Derby fan. Performances mean nothing once you are relegated, and as the worst team in the league, they need to win games, especially against teams in the same region of the league as them, and even more so in that Fulham played half the game with 10 men. Maybe if Derby had taken one of there chances, and maybe if Fulham had 11 players on the pitch the game would have been different. Maybe.

Colchester v West Brom - I didnt say much in my reivew, and theres not much to say here. 5 goals, just the type of game I am looking for.

Hereford v MK Dons - This was a dissapointment, and once again i am left to question how much the sending off on the stroke of half time made a difference. I cant dwell on it though, i just have to take it on the chin!

East Stirling v East Fife - the difference between a win and a loss in this market can be tiny, and by all accounts this was another example of this, where East Fife thought they had scored a third before realising East Stirling keeper Hill had pulled off a brilliant save. I did expect at least one goal from East Stirling, but maybe with the poor run they are this wasn't a wise choice.

Onto todays choices

Southampton v Cardiff City - over 2.5 goals - Both these teams will be in the play offs at the end of the season or there abouts. Neither has made the best start, but both have quality in there ranks. Cardiff have the most glamorous front line in the division, with decades of experience. Southampton have top striker Grzegorz Rasiak and fellow striker Bradley Wright-Phillips available to play on Sunday. They also have spanish playmaker Inigo Idiakez back fit again, and he looks a great player.

The stats show Saints as third top scorers in the division, but also with the worst defence. This should ensure opportunities for both teams, and hopefully a barrel load of goals. Cardiff should also be confident of winning away form home, and should attack from the 1st minute.

Inverness CT v Aberdeen - under 2.5 goals - These teams have a close history. As Inverness's closest neighbour, Aberdeen offered them Pittidrie for there first season in the SPL, until there ground was suitable for the top league. They class this as a derby, though in reality there is a 3 hour drive from the two cities.

there is also the link with personnel. ICT manager Craig Brewster was with Aberdeen before moving back to Inverness, and is still our joint top scorer. They also have ex Dons Dennis Wyness, Stuart Mcaffrey and Phil McGuire in there ranks.

Looking at the stats can be misleading as ICT started the season badly, but Brewster has made them more solid at the back. Both teams play the same style of football, and there may be a bit of a stalemate here. Neither team has any major injury problems but I cant see a goalfest so will take the under 2.5 goals route.

Okay, to the rest of the football today. I will leave tomorrow's fixtures for just now.

Fulham v Derby - over 2.5 goals

Fulham have played 5 home games with an average of 4 goals a game, with 9 for the home team and 11 for the away team. there has been some cracking games there this season and this may be another. When the fixture list came up this would have been one game that Derby earmarked as a possible for 3 points.

Derby haven't scored an away goal all season and that cant go on. Kenny Miller is in fine form and Rob Earnshaw is pushing for a place. They might not win but they will give it there all.

Colchester v West Brom - over 2.5 goals

All I can say here is that both teams score plenty of goals and both teams have key players fit so I expect goals.

Hereford v MK Dons - over 2.5 goals

MK Dons remain unchanged for a game where they are going for there 9th win in a row. Both teams like to play attacking football and this should make for a high scoring game

East Stirling v East Fife - over 2.5 goals

If any of this weekends games should have goals its this one. East Stirling are no longer the whipping boys of this division. They are still involved in high scoring matches but it isnt so one sided. At home there previous four games has seen 18 goals. Away from home East Fife's 4 away games have seen 16 goals. East Stirling have lost there last 5 games and will be desperate for at least a point but will find it difficult against the league leaders.

there may well be more selections tomorrow.

Today I have a few selections, but the chances are they wont be posted up until this afternoon, hence the reason why I have split them into two sections. I wanted to get my early kick of selections out.

Today see's two early kicks offs. The first is the Old Firm derby at Ibrox. These games can be a hit or a miss. The quality is usually non-existant as the usual bigotry of both sets of fans boils over. It will also be a close game in terms of the ability of both teams. As it is the first meeting of the two teams this season, both teams will be going for the win. They also had a fair few players off on International duty, and I think that could be the key here. As the game wears on the mistakes will happen. Both teams are capable of winning and Rangers will have the advantage, but only just. I fancy a high tempo, high scoring game, so will be going for over 2.5 goals.

The other early kick off is the Merseyside derby. Derby's are always hard to predict, and also how close they are going to be. Liverpool have a strong defence away from home, There record this season away is three wins and a draw with a total of 6 goals, 5 for and 1 against. Yes, derby games are different, but there isn't enough to make me back the over 2.5 goals. So what about under 2.5 goals? Well derby games are volatile situations, and anything can happen. Refs are very card happy nowadays. A stupid sending off can change games, so for that reason I will leave this one alone.

Part 2 will follow later today

Spot on the money last night, though I would never have guessed it would end up 4-1 to Luton. Okay the got two penalties but they seemed very impressive, and that has helped pick them up to 14th a place above Northampton.

Nothing now until Friday

So the holidays over, and its back to the grind. No excuses now, its heads down, lets get on with trying to earn some money from the bookies!

Today there is only one game on, Luton v Northampton. This is a tough call. Both teams are in the wrong half of the league. Luton seem to be going through a crisis, especially after manager Blackwell got stuck into them last week after they got knocked out of the cup. A win for Luton would push them above Northampton in the league. Both teams boast players that have scored 8 times this season, Andy Kirk for Northampton, Paul Furlong for Luton.

Luton have scored 9 and let in 6 in there 5 home games, a nice even 3 goals per game. Northampton have scored 6 and let in 9 away in there 5 away games, once again a nice even 3 gpg.

This one is a close call, but as it is early in the season and nerves shouldn't be a part of it  am going over 2.5 goals. I feel that both teams have goals in them, and if it is an open game then we should have 3 goals or more. The one thing that is niggling me is that Northampton will be without Paol Hubertz who is suspended but I will stick with over 2.5 goals.

nothing else until Friday due to the International matches

A mixed bag from last week, but before i go any further I need to tell you something. After the last month with my dad being in the hospital, we had my daughter at the hospital for her 6 month check up(she was born premature). the doctor told us she had cerebral palsy. So I have decided to take a coupel weeks off, as my wife isnt finding this all too easy. This year she has had a miscarriage, found a lump on he breast, lost her dad and two uncles, so the events of the last couple of weeks have been hard on her. I need to be with her and my daughter. So this blog will be on holiday.

Speak with you when i get back