2007-Jan-4
Diary for Jan 05 2007
Day276Month10Week1.5Phase06CDay64
Another day for caution, perhaps
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday)
I struggled today and eventually short-listed 4 qualifiers [2W-2PL]. My Odds stats for the win are very encouraging on 3 out of the 4, but this indication is not endorsed by favourable Majority stats. I take contradictory stats as a warning. So I've located 2 of the short-list just in Row 3 and 1 each in Place Only I & II.
My struggles produced a host of minor possibles which I discarded pretty much wholesale, in the end, on the thought that my best stats being unemphatic, non-qualifiers were liable to prove still dodgier. I might have broken even on these
My main dependence for profit today is via small (or tiny) Place Only bets. Not very exciting. However, a main tip has come in, not that this source has been any good lately.
OUTCOME The subscription tip failed to win, alas; the 18th consecutive one to do so from that source. (The "Tips" Row disappointed altogether, in fact.) But I was pleased to come out of today with a profit on Basic Plan BASIC PLAN +8 (within OVERALL -19)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Jan Week 1.6 Day 277 (Phase 06C: Day 65)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +56 @ an average this Phase of +c1/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-414 points gross @ an average of -c6/day deary me (or should I say 'dreary?' So far, anyway). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Jan '07: 5 B/pl (4 O/a) Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300 O/a] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones - a ruling I introduced a month or so ago on the basis that "if I haven't lost, I must have won."
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2): Short-List (Place Only) 'Combo' (an enhancement of the Place Only bets @ Basic Place Only I stake levels), Mistake(s), Discrepancy (Negligible) OVERALL +1
Row 3
330 Newc. JASS/3RD F/c 11/10 Min val odds + 20% = 1.83 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.75 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.79
420 Wolv. FOURSQUARE FLYER/WON F/c 10/11 Min val odds + 20% = 1.59 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.64 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.64
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos + Xtras if any BASIC PLAN +2
Place Only I - on Row 3 and
Muss: PURPLE MOON/WON
Newc: MR PICKLE/WON (Combo only)
Added (too late for the Combo): Wolv: CHERRI FOSGATE/WON
Bet: Basic, Xtra Combo + LateXtras if any BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II
Muss: GRINGO/LOST
Newc: CLOUDY LANE/2ND/NUMERO UN DE SOLZEN/WON - REGAL HEIGHTS/WON
Added: Wolv: MAYYAS/LOST
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +3
Naps I
Newc: MR PICKLE/Won (Double stake)
Bets: Basic, Total Combo + Xtras if any BASIC PLAN +1
Naps II
FOURSQUARE FLYER/Won - REGAL HEIGHTS/Won
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN +1
My Lay bets - Discontinued for the time being
Fancies
PURPLE MOON/Won/GRINGO/Lost - CLOUDY LANE/2nd/NUMERO UN DE SOLZEN/Won (5 runner race) - FOURSQUARE FLYER/Won/MAYYAS/Lost
Bets: 2x2x2 EWTrebles OVERALL EVEN [+0.02]
Tips
1) Main tip to hand is KEALSHORE LAD/LOST Fc 7-2 230 Newc
Bet (always against advice, as these are win tips, occasionally, EW): Split Small Win/Place Only, to grand total - for a "small" field race - of 15 points] [OVERALL -15]
2) Endorsements over jumps (Good words) at Muss: GRINGO/Lost - CORBIE LYNN/Lost - Newc: REGAL HEIGHTS/Won - MR PICKLE/Won - no bet - JASS/3rd
Bets: Place Only [OVERALL -9]
3) Other tips (USA Nap added after all): PRETTY CRAZY F/c 4/1 726 Laur(USA/LOST - from yesterday
CLASSIC LODGE 1110 Fair(RSA)LOST
Bet: Small win Lately, back em, they lose, ignore em, they win! [OVERALL -4]
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