2007-Jan-4
Diary for Jan 04 2007
Day275Month10Week1.4Phase06CDay63
A day for caution, perhaps
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday)
5 for my short-list [3W-2PL]. My Odds stats for the win are very encouraging on AN ACCORDION/WON (Row 2), not that this guarantees anything. All my other stats are contradictory. Basically, my Majority stats say OK to Very Good, and my Odds stats Very good to Bad. I'm relying on my multiples in hopes that the Majority stats today prove overall the better forecast.
OUTCOME "Fancies" were the let-down today, not for the first time. A good win had better come up in this category soon or it's for the chop BASIC PLAN +5 (within OVERALL +1)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Jan Week 1.5 Day 276 (Phase 06C: Day 64)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +48 @ an average this Phase of +c1/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-395 points gross @ an average of -c6/day deary me (or should I say 'dreary?' So far, anyway). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Jan '07: 4 B/pl (4 O/a) Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300 O/a] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones - a ruling I introduced a month or so ago on the basis that
"if I haven't lost, I must have won."
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
NOTE: TODAY'S ENTRY IS IN SHORTENED FORM AS I LOST THE ORIGINAL WHEN IT WAS ALMOST FINISHED AND HAD TO START AGAIN
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
240 Font. AN ACCORDION/Won F/c 1/2 Min value odds according to my Odds Config. stat + 20% = 2.00 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.42 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.50
Bets: Token Basic, FS (Zero Rung) + Mop Up, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1, today an enhancement of the Basic bet), Place Only, the 3 Combos + Xtras if any, Mistake, Discrepancy (*+0.65) BASIC PLAN +1 plus OVERALL [*+2] *adjusted to +3
Row 3
100 Ling. KING'S REVENGE/WON F/c 10/11 Infiltrated into Row 3 on Support (2xNaps)
Bets: The 3 Combos BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only I - on Row 2 and all, or from,
JUST BOND/WON - POLINAMIX/3RD - SARATOGANE/WON
Bet: Basic, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN +3
Place Only II - on all, or from,
HE'S THE GAFFER/3RD - KARELLO BAY/3RD - FOREIGN LANGUAGE/LOST - CLIMATE CHANGE/LOST - OWELSBURY DREAM/2ND - KING'S REVENGE/Won - BACK ON LINE/2ND
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.16]
Naps I - No selection
Naps II
AN ACCORDION/Won - see above
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.27]
My Lay bets - Discontinued for the time being
Fancies - all the above (except Place Only II), and all, or from,
ESPRIT SPIRIT/3RD - ERRA GO ON/LOST - SHUNKAWAKHAN/LOST - ELLABLUE/3RD - SPECIAL ENVOY/WON - LADY MARANZI/LOST
Bets: Multi Fancy (Trebles)
KARELLO BAY/3rd/BENETWOOD/WON - POLINAMIX/3rd/CLIMATE CHANGE/Lost - JUST BOND/Won/FOREIGN LANGUAGE/Lost
Bets: 2x2 Doubles, 2x2x2 Trebles
The pairs above + SARATOGANE/WON/BACK ON LINE/2nd
Bet: 2x2x2x2 4-Folds OVERALL -5
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bet (always against advice, as these are win tips or, occasionally, EW): Split Small Win/Place Only, to grand total of ? points] [OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over jumps (Good words) on several other runners but I am going with just one: at Ling: SARATOGANE/Won
Bets: Place Only [OVERALL EVEN (+0.49)]
3) Other tips (not USA Naps): BILBAO F/c 5/1 515 Newm(RSA/3RD - from yesterday
JOYCE THE VOICE F/c 5/1 Vaal(RSA/2ND
Bet: Tiny win [OVERALL -2]
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