2007-Jan-3
Diary for Jan 03 2007
Day274Month10Week1.3Phase06CDay62
Might be OK
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday)
5 for my short-list: 1 x Row 1, 1 x Row 2, 2 x Row 3, 1 x Place Only II
My Odds stats for the win are very encouraging on TABORA/WON (Row 1), encouraging on ALL FOR LUCK/WON (Row 2), not that this guarantees anything. My "Majority" stat is strongest on MASTERSHIP/2ND (Row 3), weakest on SMOOTHLY DOES IT/WON (Row 3), contradictory on THEATRE GIRL/WON (Place Only II). None is Supported unopposed, but I am hopeful.
OUTCOME The day went better than I expected. The added FS bet on Smoothly Does It doubled the gain BASIC PLAN +26 (within OVERALL +63)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Jan Week 1.4 Day 275 (Phase C: Day 63)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +43 @ an average this Phase of +c1/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-396 points gross @ an average of -c6/day deary me (or should I say 'dreary?' So far, anyway). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Jan '07: 3 B/pl (3 O/a) Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300 O/a] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones - a ruling I introduced a month or so ago on the basis that "if I haven't lost, I must have won."
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Row 1
240 Weth. TABORA/WON F/c 2/7 Min value odds according to my Odds Config. stat + 20% = 1.31 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 2.83 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.18
Bets: Token Basic, Star + Mop Up, 2-Row 'Double' (with Naps I, today a small enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 2, today a Seq. Double), Capped Place Only + Ad Hoc Supplementary Mop Up, the 3 Combos BASIC PLAN +16
Row 2
1220 Weth. ALL FOR LUCK/Won F/c 4/7 Min val odds + 20% = 1.84 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.36 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.30
Bets: Token Basic, FS (Zero Rung) + Mop Up, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1, today a Seq. Double), Place Only + Ad hoc S. Mop Up (as above), the 3 Combos + Xtras if any, Supplementary Short List (Place Only) 'Combo,' Mistake: MultiFancy/A (on 3 runners instead of 4), Discrepancy (Negligible) BASIC PLAN +3 plus OVERALL +5
Row 3
125 Weth. SMOOTHLY DOES IT/Won F/c 11/10 Min Val odds + 20% = 2.68 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.30
210 LingA: MASTERSHIP/2nd F/c 8/13 Min val odds + 20% = 2.76 (not that it will be available) New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.94
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos BASIC PLAN +3
Place Only I - on Rows 1-3
Bet: Basic, Xtra Combo I omitted to do a LateXtra Combo after Mastership's 2nd BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II
KempA: HOSTAGE/WON
Weth: THE HAIRY LEMON/2ND - THEATRE GIRL/WON
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +2
Naps I - No selection
Naps II
SMOOTHLY DOES IT/Won (Triple stake) - see above
Bets: Ad hoc FS (Zero rung: Quadruple stake) + Mop Up, Total Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.38] plus OVERALL +29
My Lay bets - Discontinued for the time being
Fancies - on all the above (except Place Only II) and
KempA: TELLTIME/2ND - no bet
Bets: Multi Fancy (Trebles) OVERALL EVEN [+0.19]
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bet: (against advice - these are win tips), Split Small Win/Place Only, to grand total of ? points] [OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over jumps (Good words) at Weth: ALL FOR LUCK/WON no bet - ILOVETURTLE/WON - no bet - SMOOTHLY DOES IT/WON - no bet - TABORA/WON
Bets: Place Only [OVERALL +1]
3) Other tips (not USA Naps): DECIDEDLY GREEK F/c 25/1 520 Newm(RSA/LOST - from yesterday
BILBAO F/c 5/1 515 Newm(RSA/Late result - see tomorrow
Bet: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.13)]
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