2006-Dec-30
Diary for Dec 30 2006
Day270Month09Week4.7Phase06CDay58
Looks trappy to me - a Laura Luck day
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday)
3 for my short-list [1W-1PL-1L(bd)]: 2 for Place Only I, 1 for Place Only II
My Odds stats for the wins are not encouraging, not that this guarantees a mediocre day of itself. Strong "Majority" stats (82W-51L) on OCEANES DES OBEAUX/3RD & SKIPPERS BRIG/WON (Place Only I) but I tend to give priority to my odds stats, hence my caution. (I have placed the former in Row 3 on its Support, however.)
Aside from any subscription tip that comes in, I'm reliant just on peripheral bets to small stakes and if lucky enough to register a profit on those it will be tiny.
OUTCOME The size of today's Overall deficit is especially disappointing considering I am trying to be careful BASIC PLAN -4 (within OVERALL -39)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Dec Week 4.7+1 Day 271 (Phase C: Day 59)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -32 @ an average this Phase of -c1/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-555 points gross @ an average of -c10/day deary me (or should I say 'dreary?' So far, anyway). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Dec: 16 B/pln (11 o/all) Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones - a ruling I've lately introduced on the basis that
"if I haven't lost, I must have won."
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifer
Bets (Row 2): Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on OCEANES DES OBEAUX/3rd, SKIPPERS BRIG/Won & RUSSIAN SKY/BROUGHT DOWN, Short-List (Place Only) Combo on these 3, Mistakes, Discrepancy (Negligible) OVERALL -1
Row 3
1240 Asco. OCEANES DES OBEAUX/3rd F/c 11/8 Included due to Support (3xNaps,1xNB)
Bets: 123 Combo (tiny win bet today), Total & Xtra Combos + Xtras BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.07]
Place Only I - on Row 3 and
Asco: POLE STAR/LOST (in Xtra Combo)
Hayd: CROZAN/LOST - SKIPPERS BRIG/Won
Bet: Basic, Xtra Combo + LateXtras BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only II
Hayd: SHIP'S HILL/3RD - ROYAL ROSA/LOST
LingA: DON PELE/2ND
Muss: AHMEDY/WON- RUSSIAN SKY/Brought down/BARRACAT/WON - MILLAGROS/LOST
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -3
Naps I - No selection
Naps II
OCEANES DES OBEAUX/3rd (Double stake) & SKIPPERS BRIG/Won- see above
Bets: Total Combo + Xtras if any BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.13]
My Lay bets - Discontinued for the time being
Fancies - on all except Place Only II above, and
Asco: NUDGE AND NURDLE//LOST (highly speculative, a tipster's Nap)
Hayd: CALVIC/LOST - NIRVANA SWING/LOST (highly speculative, on general tipster support) - SUNISA/2ND
Muss: GOLLINGER/LOST
Wolv: SPARK UP/2ND
Bets: Tiny Multi Fancy (EWDoubles) + Xtra
RUSSIAN SKY/Brought down/BARRACAT/WON - CROZAN/Lost/ROYAL ROSA/Lost - SPARK UP/2nd/SIR BOND/3RD
Bets: Tiny 3x3Trebles/2x2EWDoubles + Xtras OVERALL -14
Tips
1) Main tip was NIRVANA SWING/Lost F/c 9/4 205 Hayd
Bet: Split tiny Win/Place Only, to grand total of 20 points On market support, I was tempted to opt for a 10 pt win bet, today, but my Odds config. stat of 4W7L and New Odds stat of 22W43L put me off. This is the 16th consecutive selection from this source that has failed to win (if I include EW selections) - the worst losing run since I started subscribing (Sept 2005). I stick with them because my bank on their bets has remained in credit from Day 2, thanks partly, of late, to my split-bet staking policy [OVERALL -20]
2) Endorsements over jumps (Good words) - None - Correct decision this time - the ones that came closest to being included (3) all failed to Place [OVERALL N/A]
3) Other tips (not USA Naps)
Added a USA runner after all: PATRONISE F/c 12/1 Fair/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL N/A]
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