The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Fri Dec 29 2006
Day269Month09Week4.6Phase06CDay57

Could be OK
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday)
5 for my short-list [2W-1PL-2L]: 1 for Row 2, 2 for Row 3, 2 for Place Only I.
My Odds stats for the wins are not particularly encouraging (except for FAIR ALONG/WON), not that this guarantees a mediocre day of itself. Strong "Majority" stats also on ARMARIVER/WON and PEPPERONI PETE/LOST (Row 3) [So uneasy all along about including Pepperoni Pete, I now wonder that I did] but I tend to give priority to my odds stats [only 50/50 re Pepperoni Pete, so no excuse there], hence their location cautiously in Row 3 [At least I got that right - no win single bets in this Row]. If Fair Along wins I shall be all right, I think. Otherwise, not. Good luck needed.
OUTCOME Just "OK" (as predicted), but, apart from Fair Along, disappointing      BASIC PLAN +11 (within OVERALL +10)

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Dec Week 4.7 Day 270 (Phase C: Day 58)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -28 @ an average this Phase of -c0/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-516 points gross @ an average of -c9/day deary me (or should I say 'dreary?' So far, anyway). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Dec: 16 B/pln (11 o/all) Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones - a ruling I've lately introduced on the basis that "if I haven't lost, I must have won."
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within  OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])   

Row 1 - No qualifier

Row 2
1230 Newb. FAIR ALONG/Won F/c 1/2 Min value odds according to my Odds Config. stat + 20% = 1.34 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 9.00 (10W-1L - I call that 9) Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.33 I have decided against an FS (5th rung) bet feeling enough is at risk without it
Bets: Capped token Basic, tiny 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1 normally, today an enhancement of the Basic bet), Ad hoc Mop Up (via share of Xtra Combo), Short-List (Place Only) Combo (incl. MISTER MAHOGANY/2ND & REBEL DUKE/WON), the 3 Combos + Xtras, Mistakes: Left runner out as, now, Total/A Xtra Combo, Discrepancy (* +0.65)     BASIC PLAN +11 plus OVERALL -1 [*adjusted from -2]

Row 3
145 Taun. ARMARIVER/Won F/c 8/11 Min val odds + 20% = 2.93 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.69 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.61
220 Taun. PEPPERONI PETE/Lost F/c 1/2 Min val odds + 20% = 2.20 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.61
320 Taun. MASTER MAHOGANY/2nd F/c 7/4 Included due to Support (1xNap,2xNBs)
Bets: Place Only (except Master Mahogany), the 3 Combos + Xtras     BASIC PLAN -4

Place Only I - on Rows 2 (Xtra Combo only) & 3 (incl. Master Mahogany) and
SoutA: RED RIVER REBEL/WON
Wolv: REBEL DUKE/Won - ALITTLEBITLEFT/LOST
Bet: Basic, Xtra Combo + LateXtras    BASIC PLAN -1

Place Only II
Taun: MY TURN NOW/WON/MAGICAL QUEST/FELL
Wolv: WIBBADUNE/2ND
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN -2

Naps I
FAIR ALONG/Won (Triple stake) - see above
Bets: *Capped token Basic, 2-Row 'Double' (with Row 1 normally, today an enhancement of the Basic bet), 'Double' (today a further enhancement of the Basic bet), Total Combo + Xtras if any *Another example of the frustrations of betting when "in the Delta Quadrant" as I call it. In this case, my token bet size computed to 10 times the stake that I finally committed under this Row - I could not take the chance it might lose     BASIC PLAN +9

Naps II
Taun: PEPPERONI PETE/Lost
Wolv: REBEL DUKE/Won - ALITTLEBITLEFT/Lost
Bets: Total Combo + Xtras if any     BASIC PLAN -2

My Lay bets - Discontinued for the time being

Fancies - on all the above (except Place Only II) and
Newb: SCHIEHALLION/LOST
Bets: Tiny Multi Fancy (EWDoubles) + Xtra    OVERALL -3

Tips
1) Main tip was SIR JIMMY SHAND/2ND F/c 3/1 240 Newb.
Bet: Split tiny Win/Place Only, to grand total of 20 points]     [OVERALL +6]
2) Endorsements over jumps (Good words) at Taun: PEPPERONI PETE/Lost - MASTER MAHOGANY/2nd
Bets: Small Place Only     [OVERALL -3]
3) No other tips (not USA Naps) [Bets: Small win]     [OVERALL N/A]