2006-Dec-23
Diary for Dec 23 2006
Day265Month09Week4.2(Phase06CDay53)
Complicated day: maybe easy to get wrong & I might've
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
7 for my short-list [6W-1N/r], 2 in Row 2, 1 in Row 3, the rest split between Place Only I & II.
I have no Naps selections - a touch worrying of itself - nor have I really emphatic stats for the win in my short-list, but the best are "not bad" in favour of L'ANTARTIQUE/WON & CLASSIFIED/WON (both Row 2).
I am un-confident in my findings today in general, but one idea I got tonight is to boil down a complicated day to an absolute minimum of bets (as an option to consider). I must say, I feel inspired not to go against this tonight - It'd take better stats that I've got to fully back everything I found to pencil into my notes. But, this could prove a wrong course. As I said: "un-confident."
OUTCOME Am pleased to have made a decent gain having risked little (main tip excepted - a loser actually, but turned into a winner by going mostly Place Only on it) - a consequence of nearly every bet, however tiny, having turned a profit. It was one of those day-types that I often mention, when my race stats are modest but the Majority stats suggest, on the contrary, it could go well. However, I have come to trust the race stats over the Majority stats, hence, today's caution. BASIC PLAN +5 (within OVERALL +36)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Dec Week 4.3 Day 266 (Phase C: Day 54)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -87 @ an average this Phase of -c2/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-478 points gross @ an average of -c9/day deary me (or should I say 'dreary?' So far). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Dec: 12 B/pln (8 o/all) Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones - a ruling I've lately introduced on the basis that "If I haven't lost, I must have won."
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
120 Bang. L'ANTARTIQUE/Won F/c 4/6 Min value odds according to my Odds Config. stat + 20% = 2.03 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.29 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.32
240 Font. CLASSIFIED/Won F/c 4/7 Min val odds + 20% = 2.03 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.29 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.57
Bets: Token Basic, Token FS + Mop Up, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1 normally but a tiny Double today), Place Only (I), the 3 Combos, Short-List (Place Only) Combo (incl. RASLAN/WON, ABANDON/WON, EAU GOOD/Non run, MASTERSHIP/WON), Mistakes, Discrepancy (Negligible) BASIC PLAN +4 plus OVERALL +5
Row 3
335 SoutA. LA COLLINE/WON F/c 5/4 Min val odds + 20% = 2.46 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.51 Old stat stakes enhancer 1.89
Bets: The 3 Combos BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only I - on Row 2 and
Bang: SECRET PLOY/2ND
Here: PARKINSON/2ND
SoutA: ABANDON/Won
Bet: Basic, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II - Row 3 and
Font: RASLAN/Won
Here: PATMAN DU CHARMIL/PU I think
Wolv: MASTERSHIP/Won - EAU GOOD/NINA BLINI/Non runs
Bet: Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.11]
Naps I & II - No selection
My Lay bets - Discontinued for the time being
Fancies - all the above (but incl. just La Colline/Won from Place Only II) and
Bang: HIGH LIFE/2ND
Font: HE'S THE GAFFER/WON
SoutA: MUSICAL BEAT/2ND - SMART ASS/WON
Bets: Multi Fancies (EWDoubles)
Added: COMMANDANT 1210 Keni(RSA/LOST
Bet: Tiny EW OVERALL +6
Tips
1) Main tip was IT'S DEFINATE//2ND F/c 6/1 100 Font.
Bet: Split tiny Win/Place Only, to grand total of 20 points [OVERALL +19]
2) Endorsements over jumps (Good words) on Bang: CHOPNEYEV/Non run - Font: RASLAN/Won - Here: KALCA MOME/2ND
Bets: Place Only [OVERALL +1]
3) No other tips to hand (but would not have included USA Naps - now discontinued, here)
Bets: Small win [OVERALL N/A]
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