2006-Dec-9
Diary for Dec 09 2006
Day251Month09Week2.2(Phase06CDay39)
I find myself again saying "Might be a good day." 'Famous last words' like yesterday? No.
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
Snap decision: Basic Plan betting only - no Supplementary bets - for the time being. I have to re-think the strategy on Supplementaries as they have run up Overall deficits all year. This decision, I am embarrassed to say, is well overdue. I have been blinded by expectations based on a better strike-rate than I've achieved, abetted by the fact that a remedial strategy to recover from adverse results upon occasion has been all but non-existent in the format for some time, at the proper level, due to constraints brought on by loss of "Scope".
12 in my short-list tonight [4W-7PL-1L], but am going with only 5. I've seen days when the results in long short-lists have been spectacular, but this time I've pruned out entrants with weaker stats. There is a good chance of a profit through the qualifiers I'm left with, I feel. Born out
OUTCOME: After yesterday's depletion of current cash-flow, I found myself with more indicated peripheral bets than I wanted and, too tired anyway to finalise them, left most of them out, preferring to keep things simple today. It's probably as well I did. BASIC PLAN +18 (within OVERALL +49)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Dec Week 2.3 Day 252 (Phase C: Day 40)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -77 @ an average this Phase of -c2/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-413 points gross @ an average of -c11/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Dec: 4 B/p (2 o/a) Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones - a ruling I've lately introduced on the basis that "If I haven't lost, I must have won."
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Row 1
105 SoutA. APHORISM/WON F/c 1/2 Min value odds according to my stat + 20% = 1.96 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 2.40 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.49
215 SoutA. FLAME CREEK/WON F/c 4/11 Min val odds + 20% = 2.04 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 1.76 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.49
Bets: Capped Basic, 2-Row Doubles (with Naps I), 2-Row Trebles (with Row 2), Place Only, the 3 Combos BASIC PLAN +4
Row 2
130 Chel. BLACK JACK KETCHUM/WON F/c 2/5 Min val odds + 20% = 1.36 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 8.00 (based on only 10 results involving qualifiers: 9W1L, I call it 8), Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.14
Bets: Basic, 2-Row Trebles (with Row 1), Place Only, the 3 Combos, Mistakes, Discrepancy (*-1.10) BASIC PLAN +9 plus OVERALL [+1] *reduced to EVEN
Row 3
225 MarkR. CARIBOU/2ND F/c 5/4 Min val odds + 20% = 1.85 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.69 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.79
345 Chel. LABELTHOU/2ND F/c 6/4 Min val odds + 20% = 3.24 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.51 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.14
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos + Xtras if any BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only I - on Row1-3 (other qualifiers excluded)
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo + LateXtras if any The short-list, included complete, would have done well, here, today. I note this as the alternative to doing a multiple bet on future short-lists BASIC PLAN +3
Place Only II - Qualifiers excluded
Naps I - No selection
Naps II
MarkR: INDIAN PIPE DREAM/2ND F/c 6/5 No bet - too late
SoutA: STRIKEEN/2nd F/c 11/10
Chel: LABELTHOU/2nd F/c 6/4 (Double stake)
Bets: Total Combo + Xtras if any BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.49]
My Lay bets - None
Fancies - None
Tips
1) Main tip was PASS ME BY/2ND F/c 7/1 300 MarkR
Bet: Split of Tiny Win/balance to Place Only, to grand total of 40 points] [OVERALL +30]
2) Endorsements (Good words) on BLACK JACK KETCHUM/Won - INDIAN PIPE DREAM/No bet - too late - CARIBOU/2nd
Bets: Place Only (stats adjusted) [OVERALL +1]
3) Other tips: RELINYANE F/c 11/10 1150 Keni(RSA/WON
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (+0.38)]
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