The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Fri Dec 08 2006
Day250Month09Week2.1(Phase06CDay38)

"Might be a good day," I'd hoped. Famous last words.
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
6 in my short list, all Row 3. [2W1PL3L] My stats are best on MANHATTAN BOY/LOST but the rest do not fully encourage. Accordingly, I've committed most on Manhattan Boy (with trepidation) and, except for a main tip, if any, relatively little is chanced elsewhere. I might still have overdone it in aggregate, though. Yes
The general strength of the stats I would say is only Medium. In which case, why are they short-listed? However, some of the qualifiers have been Napped by my favoured tipsters from the Naps Table, often a good sign. Only 1 won The day could go either way.
OUTCOME: Bad, but it could all have been a lot, lot, worse     BASIC PLAN -65 (within OVERALL -105)

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Dec Week 2.2 Day 251 (Phase C: Day 39)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -95 @ an average this Phase of -c3/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-462 points gross @ an average of -c12/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Dec: 3 B/p (1 o/a) Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones - a ruling I've lately introduced on the basis that "If I haven't lost, I must have won."
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within  OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points net (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])


Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2): Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on Row 3 (Capped on Manhatten Boy), Token Remedial Supplementary, Rung 4, on Manhattan Boy + Mop Up, Supplementary Short-list Combo, Mistakes, Discrepancy (Negligible)     OVERALL -51

Row 3
1210 Chelt. STANDIN OBLIGATION/LOST F/c Evs Min value odds according to my 'Odds Configuration' stat + 20% = 2.68 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.94 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.14
135 Wolv. BOLD INDIAN/2ND F/c 8/11 Min val odds + 20% = 2.77 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.94 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.32
230 Chel. MANHATTAN BOY/LOST F/c 4/5 Min val odds (based on 14 results NB involving qualifiers only: 10W4L) + 20% = 1.48  New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.69 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.32 Found to have bled from the nose
330 Sout. CORRAN ARD/WON F/c 8/11 Min val odds + 20% = 1.85 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.69 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.64
350 KempA. PICADOR/LOST F/c 4/7 Min val odds + 20% = 2.20 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.94 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.14
450 KempA. SUMMER DANCER/WON F/c 11/10 Min val odds + 20% = 1.85 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.69 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.64
Bets: Place Only (Capped as regards Manhattan Boy), the 3 (Capped) Combos + Xtras if any Mixed messages within the stats suggest a cautious approach is wise on these qualifiers     BASIC PLAN -24

Place Only I - on Row 3
Bets: Basic (but capped re Manhattan Boy/Lost), Xtra Combo + LateXtras if any     BASIC PLAN -10

Place Only II
Chel: TIDAL BAY/WON/FRENCH SAULAIE/LOST
KempA: ANNIA FAUSTINA/LOST - ALPINE REEL/WON
Sout: PEVENSEY/2ND
Wolv: ONE WAY TICKET/3RD
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN +2

Naps I
MANHATTAN BOY/LOST - see above (Double stake)
Bets: Basic, 'Double' (today an enhancement of the Win single as there is no other  selection), 2-Row 'Double' (with Row 1 normally - today a further enhancement of the Win single), Total Combo + Xtras if any     BASIC PLAN -29

Naps II
STANDIN OBLIGATION/Lost (Double stake) - PICADOR/Lost - CORRAN ARD/Won - see above
Bets: Total Combo + Xtras if any     BASIC PLAN -4

My Lay bets - None

Fancies - all the above other than Place Only II (except I have included One Way Ticket/3rd) and
Chel: KICKS FOR FREE/2ND
Sout: ROSSES POINT/NON RUN - GREY SAMURAI/WON - TILTILI/LOST
Wolv: VERY WISE/WON
Bet: EWDoubles I want EWTrebles here, really, but these compute too expensively for me just at present
Chel: KICKS FOR FREE/2nd/TIDAL BAY/Won/FRENCH SAULAIE/Lost
KempA: SUMMER DANCER/WON/ANNIA FAUSTINA/Lost
Bets: 3&2EWDoubles (I am hoping French Saulaie & Annia Faustina figure at good prices)     [OVERALL -4]

Tips
1) Main tip was NEW ALCO/2ND (EW) F/c 8/1 120 Chel.
Bet: Split of Small Win/balance to Place Only, to grand total of 15 points]      [OVERALL +17]
2) Endorsements (Good words) on MANHATTAN BOY/Lost - ROSSES POINT/Non run - CORRAN ARD/Won - ALITTLEBITLEFT/LOST (Tiny win bet)
Bets: Place Only (stats adjusted) except Alittlebitleft    [OVERALL -1]
3) Other tips: WIND SOCK F/c 7/2 Fair(USA/2ND
Chel: MODEL SUN/LOST/NEW ALCO/2ND
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL -1]