2006-Dec-7
Diary for Dec 07 2006
Day249Month09Week1.7(Phase06CDay37)
Who knew? Might be a good day, I thought ...
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
4 in my short list: NATAL/WON (Row 1), OUNINPOHJA/3RD (Row 3), LAKE IMPERIAL/LOST (Place Only II) & ROSSES POINT/WON (Fancies). My stats are best on Natal but they do not fully commend any of these for a big bet. Accordingly, I have committed modestly on Natal and [except for a main tip/SEA OF LIGHT/BOMBED] relatively little on the rest.
OUTCOME: The main tip disappointed (as I feared it might, actually) and one or two too many runners placed/lost. It was not a bad day, really; just not a good one.
The performance of Basic Plan continues to please, and encourage hopes for the future BASIC PLAN +1 (within OVERALL -46)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Dec Week 2.1 Day 250 (Phase C: Day 38)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -30 @ an average this Phase of -c1/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-357 points gross @ an average of -c10/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Dec: 3 B/p (1 o/a) [-27 (-139)] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones - a ruling I've lately introduced on the basis that "If I haven't lost, I must have won."
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points net (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Row 1
120 Taun. NATAL/Won F/c 4/7 Min value odds according to my 'Odds Configuration' stat + 20% = 2.05 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 1.71 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.83
Bets: Capped Win, Star + Mop Up, 2-Row 'Double' (with Naps I normally but today an enhancement of the Win single), 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 2 normally, but today a further enhancement of the Win single), Place Only, Sequential 123 Combo + Xtras if any, Total & Xtra Combos + Xtra/LateXtra if any BASIC PLAN +5
Row 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2): Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on Rows 1 & 3, Supplementary Short-list Combo, Mistakes, Discrepancy (Negligible) OVERALL -14
Row 3
150 Taun. OUNINPOHJA/3rd 8/11 Min value odds according to my 'Odds Configuration' stat + 20% = 2.77 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.94 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.79
Bets: Place Only, Seq.123 Combo + Xtras if any, Total & Xtra Combos + Xtras if any BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.30]
Place Only I - Rows 1 & 3 and
Hunt: FORT ORD/LOST - REEL CHARMER/LOST
Ludl: KRISMAS CRACKER/2ND
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo + LateXtras if any BASIC PLAN -4
Place Only II
Ludl: LAKE IMPERIAL/FELL
Taun: PRETTY STAR/3RD/CLASSIFIED/WON
Wolv: BRIANNSTA/3RD
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -3
Naps I
NATAL/Won - see above
Bets: Capped Win, 'Double' (today an enhancement of the Win single as there is no other selection), 2-Row 'Double' (with Row 1 - today an enhancement of the Win single), Total Combo + Xtras if any BASIC PLAN +2
Naps II
Ludl: ROSSES POINT/Won (Double stake)
Bets: Total Combo + Xtras if any BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.21]
My Lay bets - None
Fancies - all the above (except Place Only II) and
Hunt: *BOLD FIRE/WON/HARRINGAY/FELL - FERIMON/WON
Ludl: MAGIC SCORE/2ND
Taun: POLAR SCOUT/NON RUN
Wolv: CASUAL AFFAIR/2ND - DESERT OPAL/WON
Bet: EWDoubles
The above *pairings and
Taun: PRETTY STAR/3rd/CLASSIFIED/Won
Bets: 2x2EWDoubles [OVERALL -3]
Tips
1) Main tip today was SEA OF LIGHT F/c 11/2 130 Hunt.
I was tempted to not go with this selection. Frankly, this service has been under-performing by their high standards for a while. They aren't actually single-handedly responsible for my deficit on Overall but it feels not that far off! I keep expecting a run of winners from them & keep the faith but today's selection had looked especially dodgy to me on what I could glean from the RP Selection Box: namely
(1) 6 runners figuring, Sea of Light nominated by only 2 tipsters (including Lambourn). I tend to consider this too many rivals, but it does virtually guarantee value which ever one bets on.
(2) My odds configuration stat placed this race in one of my least favourite categories - 6 runners under 14/1 but, strictly, no worse than 43W54L, getting on for 50/50, as regards qualifiers (which this wasn't).
At the very least, I should have capped the stake, I feel in restrospect
Bet: Split Small Win/balance to Place Only, to grand total of 30 points [OVERALL -30]
2) Endorsements (Good words) on NATAL/Won (Small win bet), OUNINPOHJA/3rd - REEL CHARMER/Lost - ROSSES POINT/Won
Bets: Place Only (stats adjusted) except Natal [OVERALL EVEN (+0.11)]
3) Other tips: THATS OUR POINT F/c 3/1 540 Laur(USA/LOST
N03 RUSSIAN BROAD F/c 3/1 925 Fair(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
SIMBA BOY F/c 18/10 1220 Vaal(RSA/WON
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (+0.49)]
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