2006-Dec-4
Diary for Dec 04 2006
Day246Month09Week1.4(Phase06CDay34)
Looked dodgy, overall, & so it proved
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
3 in my short list, all of which make it into Row 3 (erring on the side of extreme caution). My stats are a mixture Caution & stats born out. The short-listed might all win or all lose 1W2Pl. Very little money at stake today (except for the main tip).
OUTCOME: I am pleased to have made a profit on Basic Plan despite 2 losers from 3 in my short-list BASIC PLAN +4 (within OVERALL -39)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Dec Week 1.5 Day 247 (Phase C: Day 35)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -24 @ an average this Phase of -c1/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-304 points net @ an average of -c9/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Dec: 2 B/p (1 o/a) Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-even days count as Win ones - a ruling I've lately introduced on the basis that "If I haven't lost, I must have won."
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points net (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points net (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2): Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on Row 3 qualifiers, Sequential Supplementary Short-list Combo, Mistakes: needless 123 Xtra/A (Win double), Discrepancy (Negligable) OVERALL -7
Row 3
1250 Fake. CHANINBAR/3RD F/c 8/11 Min value odds according to my odds configuration stat + 20% = 2.51 (not that it's attainable) New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.51 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.14
310 LingA. PICADOR/WON F/c 10/11 Min val odds + 20% = 2.20 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.69 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.14
330 Wolv. TOBAGO REEF/2ND F/c 4/6 Min val odds + 20% = 1.85 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.69 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.71
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos + Xtras/1,-/2 BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.44]
Place Only I - on Row 3 and
Fake: ROYAL SHAKESPEARE/2ND - FROSTY JAK/WON
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo + LateXtras/1x2,-/2x1 BASIC PLAN +2
Place Only II
LingA: MISS SAAFEND PLAZA/2ND
Wolv: CHARLOTTE GREY/WON
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +1
Naps I
CHANINBAR/3rd- see above
Bets: Tiny win, 'Double,' (an enhancement of the Win bet as there is no 2nd selection), 2-Row 'Double' (with Row 1 normally but today a further enhancement of the Win single), Total Combo + Xtras BASIC PLAN -1
Naps II
FROSTY JAK/Won - ROYAL SHAKESPEARE/2nd - PICADOR/Won (Double stake) - see above
Bets: Total Combo, Xtra Total/1,-/2 BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.25]
My Lay bets - None
Tips
1) Main tip to hand is LE SEYCHELLOIS/LOST F/c 5/1 220 Fake.
Bet: Split Small Win/balance to Place Only, to grand total of 40 points [OVERALL -40]
2) Lay tip to hand is BOUNCY CASTLE/HRS LOST F/c 9/4 320 Fake.
Seems fair enough
Bet: Min liability (Note: This service is in a poor run currently) [OVERALL +2]
3) Endorsements (Good words) on CHANINBAR/3rd - ROYAL SHAKESPEARE/2nd
Bets: Small Place Only (special stats adjusted) [OVERALL +1]
4) Other tips: No.5 LAKE TAKUM F/c 4/1 Fair(USA/WON - from yesterday
No.3 LET IT ROLL F/c 10/1 551 Cald(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL +1]
Fancies - all the above and
Fake: *LE SEYCHELLOIS/Lost/HERECOMESTANLEY/WON
LingA: MARKO JADAO/2ND - missed break
Wolv: CREE/2ND - just pipped
Bets: WTrebles Pity 'Cree' just failed. As the last runner of the list, that failure made a big difference to the return - my small loss on the bet would have turned into quite a nice little gain.
The *pairing above and
TOBAGO REEF/2nd/CHARLOTTE GREY/Won
Bets: 2x2EWDoubles This cancelled out the WTrebles loss [OVERALL EVEN (-0.07)]
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