The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Fri Dec 01 2006
Day243Month09Week1.1(Phase06CDay31)

Good bad day
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
4 in my short list, 1 of which makes it into Row 1: POUVOIR/2ND - & 2 into Row 3: LACEWORK/WON & ATLANTIC STORY/WON. Of these, my stats say the likeliest to win is Pouvoir (74W37L). The weakest 'odds configuration' stat is on Atlantic Story (59W87L). Stats not born out this time.
OUTCOME: Dominated by the failure of Pouvoir. Although capped in a main bet, the cluster of other capped bets on top of that one aggregated to a significant loss. The rest of the day was mostly very successful - but off stakes that were too small to compensate for Pouvoir's failure. This sort of result does happen when the day's account primarily depends on one main runner. Can't be helped.     BASIC PLAN -58 (within OVERALL -61)

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Dec Week 1.2 Day 244 (Phase C: Day 32)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -61 @ an average this Phase of -c2/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-279 points net @ an average of -c9/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Dec: 0 B/p (0 o/a) Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-even days count as Win ones - a ruling I've lately introduced on the basis that 'if I haven't lost, I must have won.'
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points net (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within  OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points net (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
  
Row 1
100 Sand. POUVOIR/2nd F/c 4/7 Min value odds according to my odds configuration stat + 20% = 1.60 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 1.80 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.20 (based on only 16 results: 11W5L)
Bets: Capped Basic, Capped Star + Mop Up, 2-Row 'Double' (with Naps I normally but today an enhancement of the Win bet as there is no 2nd qualifier/selection), 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 2 normally but today a further enhancement of the Win single), Capped Place Only, the 3 Combos + Xtras if any     BASIC PLAN -42

Row 2 - No qualifier
Bets: Supplementary Short-list Combo (stakes adjusted today - including SHADE COZY/2ND) + Xtras if any, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on LACEWORK/Won & ATLANTIC STORY/Won, Mistakes: 2nd Place Only bet in error on Shade Cozy, Discrepancy (Negligable [+0.10])     OVERALL -1

Row 3
420 Wolv. LACEWORK/Won F/c 4/6 Evs Min value + 20% = 2.29 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.64 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.64
620 Wolv. ATLANTIC STORY/Won F/c 6/5 Min val odds + 20% = 2.77 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.94 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.20 (based on 16 results as per above)
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos + Xtras if any     BASIC PLAN +2

Place Only I - Rows 1 & 3 and
LingA: SHADE COZY/2nd
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo + LateXtras if any     BASIC PLAN +2

Place Only II
Exet: TIDAL FURY/LOST - MINELLA TIPPERARY/LOST/ABRAGANTE/WON
LingA: SMALL STAKES/WON
Sand: GRANIT JACK/2ND/LABELTHOU/WON
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN +1

Naps I
POUVOIR/2nd - See above
Bets: Basic (Double stake), Total Combo + Xtras if any     BASIC PLAN -24

Naps II
LingA: HURRICANE SPIRIT/WON
Sand: STAR DE MOHAISON/WON - MY TURN NOW/WON (Double stake)
Wolv: LACEWORK/Won
Bets: Total Combo, Xtras if any     BASIC PLAN +3

My Lay bets - None

Tips
1) No Main tip today     [OVERALL N/A]
2) Lay tip to hand is OCEAN PRIDE/HRS WON F/c 2/1
Slightly more Support than I like to see, but I'll chance a small stake
Bet: Min liability Could have done without this outcome today     [OVERALL -5]
3) Endorsements (Good words) on
Exet: GREENHILL BRAMBLE/2ND
Sand: POUVOIR/2nd - PASS IT ON/LOST - STAR DE MOHAISON/Won - MY TURN NOW/Won
Bets: Place Only (stats adjusted) except tiny Win bets on Pass it On & Star de Mohaison     [OVERALL +2]
4) Minor tips: No.3 SMOKESCREEN F/c 8/5 R.8 Laur(USA/LOST - from yesterday
No.5 WEATHER WARNING F/c 7/2 826 Fair(USA/WON
Bets: Small win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.37)]

Fancies
Exet: GREENHILL BRAMBLE/2nd/HENNESSY/Lost - RANELAGH GRAY/WON 
LingA: SISTER MARIA/3RD - HURRICANE SPIRIT/Won @ 4/11/FLUTTERING ROSE/LOST
Sand: KALDOUAS/FELL - STAR DE MOHAISON/Won - KELANTAN/PU - MY TURN NOW/Won
Wolv: LITTLE ESKIMO/WON
Bets: Trebles
The pairings above plus
Exet: MINELLA TIPPERARY/Lost/ABREGANTE/Won @ 7/2
LingA: SHADE COZY/2nd/SMALL STAKES/Won @ 4/1
Sand: GRANIT JACK/2nd/LABELTHOU/Won @ 5/2
Bets: 2x2 Trebles The 2x2 Trebles did well but, unfortunately, nearly all the gain was lost on the standard Trebles     [OVERALL +1]