2006-Nov-21
Diary for Nov 21 2006
Day233Month08Week3.7(Phase06CDay21)
Bailed out by tip - partially
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
4 in my short-list: headed by AKILAK/2ND (Row 2) - clear, strong 'Majority stat,' consensus fav, with my other stats especially encouraging, too, on its chances.
The stats on the other 3 short-listed are not especially strong in support of wins. It could prove a disappointing day on those. It did. But, main tip excepted (if any), not a lot is at stake - other than on Akilak to win and, again capped, to place.
OUTCOME: Bits and pieces of bets mounted up, too little of which came back BASIC PLAN -42 (within OVERALL -23)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Nov Week 4.1 Day 234 (Phase C: Day 22)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +39 @ an average, this Phase, of +c2/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-171 points net @ an average of -c8/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Nov: 13xB/Plan (11xO/all) [*see above for this month's O/all gain/loss] *Break-even days count as Win ones - a new ruling I've introduced - on the basis that 'if I haven't lost, I must have won.'
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points net (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points net (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
110 Sedg. AKILAK/2nd F/c 4/9 Min value odds, according to my 'odds configuration' stat, + 20% = 1.58 New odds stat stake enhancer (Row 2) x 1.36 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.75
Bets: Capped Basic + Mop Up, Token FS, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1 normally but today no other qualifier, therefore an enhancement of the existing win bet), Capped Place Only, Supplementary Short-List Combo (including BIG ROB/PU & ADELSTROP/LOST), the 3 Combos, Xtras if any, Small composite 'Lucky Last' bet on LILAC STAR/LOST, Mistakes if any, Discrepancy [-0.39] BASIC PLAN -12 plus OVERALL -14
Row 3
1240 Sedg. BOUGOURE/2ND F/c 5/4 Min val odds + 20% = 2.29 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.67 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.32
250 Sedg. NEGUS DE BEAUMONT/WON F/c 10/11 Min val odds + 20% = 2.77 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.94 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.74
450 Wolv. LILAC STAR/LOST F/c 4/6 Min val odds + 20% = 2.29 New odds stat enhancer (General) x 1.67 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.64
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos, Xtras if any BASIC PLAN -8
Place Only I - on Rows 2 & 3 and
Kemp: BIG ROB/Lost
Sedg: ADLESTROP/Lost
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo, LateXtra if any BASIC PLAN -3
Place Only II
Kemp: MY TURN NOW/WON/THE BIG CANADIAN/2ND - BLAEBERRY/LOST
Sedg: SPRING BREEZE/LOST - CARRIETAU/2ND/POINT ROUGE/LOST
Wolv: OURS/WON
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -3
Naps I
AKILAK/2nd & NEGUS DE BEAUMONT/Won - see above
Bets: Basic (Double stake on Negus de Beaumont), Sequential Double, 2-Row Double (with Row 1 normally, but today an enhancement of the existing Double), Total Combo, Xtras if any 1/3rd of the 2nd Sequential bet got overlooked BASIC PLAN -15
Naps II
CARRIETAU/2nd
Bets: Total Combo, Xtras if any BASIC PLAN -1
My Lay bets - None
Tips
1) EW main tip to hand was INISHTURK/WON F/c 7/1 205 Kemp.
Bet: Split Win/Place Only, totalling 20 points [OVERALL +34]
2) Major Lay tip to hand is CIMYLA/HRS WON 550 Wolv.
Too much Support for me, including being Newmarket's tip to win. Respected opinion versus Respected Opinion = No bet. (I have warned this tipping service to heed Newmarket's selections to win & not put them up to lay. But they arn't listening, apparently. It's beginning to annoy me.) [OVERALL N/A]
3) Minor tips: No3 SURVICAT F/c 6/1 647 Cald(USA/LOST
No4 MAN IN POWER Race 3 Phil(USA/LOST
ALTEZA Currently 5/10 1205 Keni(RSA/WON
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (+0.09)]
4) Endorsements (Good words):
(a) TASHKANDI/WON (Kemp)
Bet: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (+0.11)]
(b) Kemp: TASHKANDI/Won - Sedg: BOUGOURE/2nd - AKILAK/2nd - CARRIETAU/2nd - NEGUS DE BEAUMONT/Won
Bets: Small Place Only (Stats adjusted) [OVERALL +2]
Fancies
Kemp: TASHKANDI/Won
Sedg: PRINCE OF GOLD/2ND
Bets: Multi Fancy (EWDouble)
Kemp: MY TURN NOW/Won/THE BIG CANADIAN/2nd
Sedg: CARRIETAU/2nd/POINT ROUGE/Lost - PRINCE OF GOLD/2nd/BARZAK/LOST
Bets: Fancy Multi Combo (2X2Doubles, 2x2x2EWTrebles) OVERALL -3
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