The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Mon Nov 20 2006
Day232Month08Week3.6(Phase06CDay20)

Hopefulness born out - just about
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
4 in my short-list, 2 clear, & strong, 'Majority stat' consensus favs: TRINITY ROSE/2ND & LA COLLINE/WON (both Row 1). My other stats are especially encouraging, too, on their chances. Trinity Rose not given a great ride, I thought. But what do I know?
DOWN'S FOLLY/2ND (Row 3) also has strong stats for the win, but its Majority stat is rather weak (51W80L). The weakest qualifier is BACKBORD/WON (Place Only I)- less than 50/50 for the win in all three stat categories (not that this guarantees anything).
It could prove a disappointing day - very easily. But, main tip excepted (if any), not a whole lot is at stake - other than the capped To Place bets on Trinity Rose & La Colline (25 points each).
I have taken a chance by including SEISMIC SHIFT/WON (SPd @ 3/1!) in Row 3, Lambourne having chosen it as his Nap, which, as the race is a bumper, I take to be significant. I am hoping it will win and therefore bump up (otherwise low) returns (if any). Paid off, this time. Pleasing.
OUTCOME:     BASIC PLAN +8 (within OVERALL +9)

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Nov Week 3.7 Day 233 (Phase C: Day 21)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +81 @ an average, this Phase, of +c4/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-148 points net @ an average of -c7/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Nov: 13xB/Plan (11xO/all) [*see above for this month's O/all gain/loss] *Break-even days count as Win ones - a new ruling I've introduced - on the basis that 'if I haven't lost, I must have won.'
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points net (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within  OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points net (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Row 1
310 SoutA. TRINITY ROSE/2nd F/c 1/2 Min value odds, according to my 'odds configuration' stat, + 20% = 1.58 New odds stat stake enhancer (Row 1) x 1.80 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.57
340 SoutA. LA COLLINE/Won F/c 1/2 Min val odds + 20% = 1.83 New odds stat stake enhancer (Row 1) x 2.56 (Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.75 - based on 15 results: 11W4L)
Bets: Capped Basic + Mop Up, Star (straight 10% of bank) + Mop Up, 2-Row Double (with Naps 1), 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 2 normally but today no 3rd qualifier, therefore an enhancement of the existing Double), Capped Place Only, the 3 Combos, Xtras if any     BASIC PLAN -6

Row 2 - No qualifier
Bets: Supplementary Short-List Combo (including BACKBORD/Won), Token Remedial Supplementary (4th rung) + Mop Up on La Colline/Won, Mistakes if any, Discrepancy [Negligible]     OVERALL -4

Row 3
220 Ludl. DOWN'S FOLLY/2nd F/c 11/10 Min val odds + 20% = 1.83 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.67 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.64
LA COLLINE/Won & TRINITY ROSE/2nd included in Row 3 as well - to increase the size of the multiple bets
350 Ludl. SEISMIC SHIFT/Won F/c 7/4 Included due to Support (1xNap)
Bets: Place Only (not Seismic Shift), the 3 Combos, Xtras if any     BASIC PLAN +7

Place Only I - on Rows 1 & 3 (not Seismic Shift)
Ludl: WIN A ROSE/WON - BACKBORD/Won
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo, LateXtra if any     BASIC PLAN +3

Place Only II
Ludl: HAWRIDGE KING/LOST - FOURTY ACERS/WON
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN -3

Naps I
LA COLLINE/Won - see above
Bets: Basic (quintuple stake) + Mop Up, 'Double' (an enhancement of the win bet as there is no other qualifier), 2-Row Double (with Row 1), Total Combo, Xtras if any     BASIC PLAN +7

Naps II
DOWN'S FOLLY/2nd - see above
Bets: Total Combo, Xtras if any     BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.46]

My Lay bets - None

Tips
1) No Main tip today for usual bet of Split Win/Place Only, totalling ? points     [OVERALL N/A]
2) No Major Lay tip today     [OVERALL N/A]
3) Minor tips: No3 SURVICAT F/c 6/1 647 Cald(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL N/A]
4) Endorsements (Good words):  TRINITY ROSE/2nd
Bet: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.39)]
(b) Ludl: BACKBORD/Won - DOWN'S FOLLY/2nd
Bets: Small Place Only (Stats adjusted)     [OVERALL +1]

Fancies
Ludl: SEISMIC SHIFT/Won
SoutA: SHERIFF'S SILK/WON
Bets: Multi Fancy (EWDouble)     OVERALL +5