2006-Nov-19
Diary for Nov 19 2006
Day231Month08Week3.5Sunday Mode(Phase06CDay19)
Fearing the worst proved to be needless
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
4 in my short-list, 2 clear 'Majority stat' consensus favs at about the strongest level they can be for a Sunday. My other stats, however, are not especially encouraging on the chances for the wins. Only EVER SPECIAL/WON (Row 2) is better than 50/50 on that. It could prove a disappointing day, very easily.
I've seen stats like these on perfectly good days, however, so "either way" is my verdict, again, on prospects - but, also again, with a bias towards fearing the worst. Main tip excepted, if any, not a lot is at stake unless I include, just about, the capped bet To Place on DEGAS ART/WON
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN +37 (within OVERALL +27)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Nov Week 3.6 Day 232 (Phase C: Day 20)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +73 @ an average, this Phase, of +c4/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-157 points net @ an average of -c8/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Nov: 12xB/Plan (10xO/all) [*see above for this month's O/all gain/loss] *Break-even days count as Win ones - a new ruling I've introduced - on the basis that 'if I haven't lost, I must have won.'
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points net (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points net (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Row 1 - No qualifiers
Row 2
1240 Towc. EVER SPECIAL/Won F/c 4/6 Min value odds, according to my 'odds configuration' stat, + 20% = 2.07 New odds stat stake enhancer (Row 2) x 1.38 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.91 Cap the multiple bets
100 Aint. DEGAS ART/Won F/c 4/5 Min val odds + 20% = 2.32 New odds stat stake enhancer (Row 2) x 1.23 Old stat stakes enhancer x 4.40 (Based on 27 results: 22W5L)
Bets: Capped Basic + Mop Up, Token FS, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1 normally but today no 3rd qualifier, therefore it's a Double), Place Only (Capped re Degas Art), the 3 Combos, Xtras if any, Supplementary Short-List Combo (including GLEN THYNE), Mistakes: Small win bet on LENNON/WON (meant to be a Place Only bet), Discrepancy [Negligible] BASIC PLAN +19 plus OVERALL +13
Row 3
310 Aint. LENNON/Won F/c 13/8 Min val odds + 20% = 2.32 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.13 Old stat stakes enhancer x 4.40 Halve stakes for over obstacles for the multiple bets only
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos. Xtras if any BASIC PLAN +7
Place Only I - on Rows 2 & 3
Towc: GLEN THYNE/2ND
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo, LateXtra if any BASIC PLAN +6
Place Only II
Plum: ACCUMULUS/WINGMAN/BOTH LOST - GEEVEEM/WON - SCHAPIRO/LOST
Towc: WEE ANTHONY/LEVALLOIS/BOTH LOST - IRONSIDE/LOST
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -4
Naps I
DEGAS ART/Won & LENNON/Won - see above
Bets: Basic, Sequential (went out, so 2nd half of bet not placed) Double, 2-Row 'Double' (with Row 1 normally but today an enhancement of the existing Double), Total Combo, Xtras if any BASIC PLAN +10
Naps II - No selection
My Lay bets - None
Tips
1) Main EW tip to hand HAKIM/LOST 130 Aint.
Bet: Split Win/Place Only, totalling 20 points [OVERALL -20]
2) No Major Lay tip today [OVERALL N/A]
3) Minor tips: No6 SUGAR BOOGER F/c 3/1 836 Chur(USA/LOST
WHAT A JUNE 1155 Scot(RSA/LOST
Aint: SHANNON'S PRIDE/2ND- DUNBROADY MILLAR/3RD - KING'S GLEN/LOST
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL -1]
4) Endorsements (Good words): None
Bet: Tiny win [OVERALL N/A]
(b) Aint: ACCORDELLO/WON - TANTERARI/LOST - HELLO IT'S ME/LOST
Towc: WEE ANTHONY/LOST
Bets: Tiny Place Only (Stats adjusted) [OVERALL -2]
Fancies (maybe)
Plum: ACCUMULUS/WINGMAN/Both lost
Towc: WEE ANTHONY/LEVALLOIS/Both lost
Bets: Multi Fancy (2x2 Doubles), Xtra M-F/1 if any OVERALL -1
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