The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Sat Nov 18 2006
Day230Month08Week3.4(Phase 06C Day18)

Today's results went my way after all
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
7 in my short-list, 5 of which are clear 'Majority stat' consensus favs but not at the strongest level they can be. My other stats, in fact, are only especially encouraging on the chances for the win on KANPAI/WON (Row 2). It could prove a disappointing day, very easily. But I have seen stats like these on brilliant days. Either way, then, is the verdict - but fearing the worst.
OUTCOME:      BASIC PLAN +42 (within OVERALL +87)

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Nov Week 3.5S Day 231 (Phase C: Day 19)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +36 @ an average, this Phase, of +c2/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-184 points net @ an average of -c11/day. Gain-days in Phase 06B: Nov: 11xB/Plan (9xO/all) [*see above for this month's O/all gain/loss] *Break-even days count as Win ones - a new ruling I've introduced - on the basis that 'if I haven't lost, I must have won.'
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points net (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within  OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points net (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Row 1 - No qualifiers

Row 2
135 Asco. HARDY EUSTACE/WON F/c 4/5 Min value odds, according to my 'odds configuration' stat, + 20% = 2.00 New odds stat stake enhancer (Row 2) x 1.21 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.29 Cap the multiple bets
355 Hayd. KANPAI/Won F/c 1/2 Min val odds + 20% = 1.37 New odds stat stake enhancer (Row 2) x (I call it) 7.00 (Based on 9 results: 8W1L)
Bets: Capped Basic + Mop Up, Token FS, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1 normally but today no 3rd qualifier, therefore it's a Double), Place Only (Capped re Kanpai), 123 Combo, (Capped) Total & Xtra Combos, Xtras if any, Supplementary Short-List Combo (including FORT ORD/2ND & SHUSTRAYA/2ND), Mistakes, Discrepancy [Nil]     BASIC PLAN +25 plus OVERALL +14

Row 3
200 Hayd. TRITONIX/WON F/c 4/9 Min val odds + 20% = 2.07 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.55 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.14 Halve stakes for over obstacles for the multiple bets only
235 Asco. ASUDO/2ND F/c 6/4 Min val odds + 20% = 1.20 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.94 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.29
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos. Xtras if any     BASIC PLAN +4

Place Only I - on Rows 2 & 3
Hunt: FORT ORD/2ND - BRADLEY BOY/WON
Bets: Basic, Capped Xtra Combo, LateXtra if any     BASIC PLAN +7

Place Only II
Asco: MIGHTY MAN/2ND
Hayd: KAUTO STAR/WON - BEAU MICHEL/LOST
Hunt: VERY SPECIAL ONE/3RD - no bet (too late)
LingA: SHUSTRAYA/2ND/FLUTTERING ROSE/WON
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN +1

Naps I
Hunt: TRITONIX/Won - see above
Bets: Basic, 'Double' (an enhancement of the single win bet as there is no 2nd qualifier) & 2-Row 'Double' (with Row 1 normally but today an enhancement of the win bet as there is no other qualifier), Capped Total Combo, Xtras if any     BASIC PLAN +1

Naps II
ASUDO/2nd - see above
Hayd: KAUTO STAR/Won
Hunt: BRADLEY BOY/Won
Bets: Capped Total Combo, Xtras if any     BASIC PLAN +3

My Lay bets - None

Tips
1) Main win tip to hand COLLEGE ACE/WON Fc 3-1 230 Hunt
Usual Bet: Split Win/Place Only, totalling 40 points     [OVERALL +36]
2) Major Lay tip to hand is SLEW CHARM/2ND 250 Hayd.
Perhaps a shade more Support than I care to see for a Lay bet  - plus it is Lambourne's selection to win. Possible 'no bet' - no regret Bet: Minimum liability    [OVERALL N/A]
3) Minor tips: No4 RAZOR CAT Fc 7-2 706 Chur(USA/WON
MADISON DU BERLAIS/LOST (Asco) - CHARLIE COOL/LOST (LingA)
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (+0.02)]
4) Endorsements (Good words): NED LUDD/2ND (Hunt)
 Bet: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.05)]
(b) None  Bets: Place Only (Stats adjusted)     [OVERALL N/A]

Fancies
Asco: CHILLING PLACE/FELL
Hunt: UNGARO/WON - MONKERHOSTIN/LOST
LingA: INQUISITRESS/WON
Wolv: LADY ALIZE/3RD - LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN/2ND - PREMIER FANTASY/2ND
Bets: Fancy Multi (WTrebles, EW7-Fold accum.), Xtra F-M/1 after Lady Alize     OVERALL -4