2006-Nov-17
Diary for Nov 17 2006
Day229Month08Week3.3(Phase 06C Day17)
Modest pickings
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
4 in my short-list, 2 of which are strong 'Majority stat' consensus favs (MONSIEUR/LOST & MINELLA TIPPERARY/WON), 1 is 'very strong' (ECCOLLO/WON) and 1 'weak' (FABINE/LOST).
My other stats are only especially encouraging on the chances for the win on Eccollo (Row 1).
OUTCOME: Considering that 2 lost of my 4 short-listed runners, I have to be happy with any profit BASIC PLAN +16 (within OVERALL +14)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Nov Week 3.4 Day 230 (Phase C: Day 18)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -6 @ an average, this Phase, of -c0/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-271 points net @ an average of -c16/day. Gain-days in Phase 06B: Nov: 10xB/Plan (8xO/all) [*see above for this month's O/all gain/loss] *Break-even days count as Win ones - a new ruling I've introduced - on the basis that 'if I haven't lost, I must have won.'
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points net (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points net (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Row 1
520 Wolv. ECCOLLO/Won F/c 4/7 Min value odds, according to my 'odds configuration' stat, + 20% = 1.48 New odds stat staked enhancer (Row 1) x 2.56 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.50
Bets: Capped Basic + Mop Up, Token Star, 2-Row 'Double' (with Naps I normally but no 2nd qualifier/selection today, so an enhancement of the existing win single), 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 2 normally but today no 2nd qualifier, therefore enhancement as per the 2-Row 'Double'), (Capped) Place Only (basically, I've emptied the credit balance of my Betfair account on this - leaves a shortfall on the indicated stake level, but, probably, I'll let that go), the 3 Combos, Xtras if any
Yesterday, I had 71 points To Place riding on Mantle who broke down. Today, my numbers said invest double this To Place on Eccollo. But to do that I was going to have to add funds to the relevant accounts. I decided to invest just the available balances, amounting to a little more than half the indicated stake. So, between the two days, I lost @ full whack, and gained back @ half-cock - the kind of thing than happens when betting whilst in "the Delta Quadrant." BASIC PLAN +22
Row 2 - No qualifier
Bets: Supplementary Short-List Combo (including MINELLA TIPPERARY/Won & FABINE/Lost), Mistakes, Discrepancy [+0.47] OVERALL -7
Row 3
1235 Exet. MINELLA TIPPERARY/Won F/c 11/8 Included mainly due to Support (2xNaps, 1xNB)
200 Kels. MONSIEUR/Lost F/c 10/11 Min val odds + 20% = 2.93 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.69 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.14 No halving of stakes for over obstacles as the relevant stakes are already low
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos (except that the 123 & Total Combos are combined - as there are no Naps I or II selections) BASIC PLAN -2
Place Only I - on Rows 1 & 3 (except Minella Tipperary)
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (including Minella Tipp.), LateXtra if any BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II
Exet: SHANNON SPRINGS/LOST
Kels: RASHARROW/WON/THE DUKES SPEECH/3RD
Wolv: FABINE/LONDOLOZI/Both lost
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -4
Naps I & II - No selection
My Lay bets - None
Tips
1) Main win tip to hand is LOU DU MOULIN MAS/2ND F/c 7/2
Bet: Split Win/Place Only, totalling 22 points [OVERALL +5]
2) Major Lay tip to hand is INN FOR THE DANCER/3RD F/c 5/2 255 Exet.
Seems fair enough except perhaps just a touch more Support than I like to see for a Lay bet - plus it is Computerman's Nap today. Possible no bet - no regret
Bet: Minimum liability [OVERALL N/A]
3) No.3 MARIANAS F/c 7/2 608 Chuc(USA/LOST (3rd of small field)
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.07)]
4) Endorsements (Good words): ECCOLLO/Won (Wolv)
Bet: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (+0.06)]
(b) Asco: HAWRIDGE STAR/2ND; Exet: GET MY DRIFT/LOST
Bets: Place Only (Stats adjusted) [OVERALL EVEN (-0.44)]
Fancies - No selection
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