The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Thu Nov 16 2006
Day228Month08Week3.2(Phase 06C Day16)

Hopes of a good day soon started to fade, and went on fading right to the wire
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
6 in my short-list again, 3 of which are strong 'Majority stat' consensus favs, the others 'Medium strong' and less. My other stats are especially encouraging on the chances for the win on BOLD FIRE/NON RUN (Row 2). I've taken a chance on MANTLE/BROKE DOWN in Row 1, I feel, though the stats for the win are even better than Bold Fire's.
*Not a lot of cash risked but today's bets have a more customary appearance to them - a presence in each of my top three Rows, for example. *The Place Only bet on Mantle computed high and I thought about capping it but decided against. Cost me -75 points on its own, right there.
I'll be disappointed to end the day without a profit. Distraught is more the word, I think.
OUTCOME:      BASIC PLAN -96 (within OVERALL -169)

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Nov Week 3.3 Day 229 (Phase C: Day 17)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -22 @ an average, this Phase, of -c1/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-285 points @ an average of -c18/day. Gain-days in Phase 06B: Nov: 9xB/Plan (7xO/all) [*see above for this month's O/all gain/loss] *Break-even days count as Win ones - a new ruling I've introduced - on the basis that 'if I haven't lost, I must have won,' which, about betting on horses, I think is fair enough!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within  OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Row 1
520 Wolv. MANTLE/bd F/c 2/7 Min value odds, according to my 'odds configuration' stat, + 20% = 1.58 New odds stat staked enhancer (Row 2) x 1.21 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.14
Bets: Capped Basic + Mop Up, Star + Mop Up, 2-Row 'Double' (with Naps I normally but no 2nd qualifier/selection today, so an enhancement of the existing win single),  2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 2 normally but today no 3rd qualifier, so a Sequential Double), Place Only, the 3 Combos, Xtras if any     BASIC PLAN -55

Row 2
300 Winc. BOLD FIRE/non run F/c 4/5 Min value odds + 20% = 1.83 New odds stat staked enhancer (Row 2) x 1.21 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.14 No halving of stakes for obstacles today as stakes are already low
Bets: Capped Basic, Token FS + Mop Up, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1), Place Only, the 3 Combos, Capped Supplementary Short-List Combo (including ALMOST BROKE/2ND, BRAVE VILLA/WON & OLIMPO/UR +, by mistake, ESPRIT SAINT/LOST, instead of LIBERATE which won), Mistakes, Discrepancy [-1.44]     BASIC PLAN  -3 plus OVERALL (increased to) -25

Row 3
130 Winc. OLIMPIA/ur F/c 15/8 Included due to Support (2xNaps)
150 Here. BRAVE VILLA/Won F/c 7/4 Included due to Support (3xNaps)
200 Winc. KAWAGINO/2ND F/c 8/11 Min val odds + 20% = 2.32 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.63 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.29 No halving of stakes for over obstacles
Bets: Basic (on Kawagino), Place Only, the 3 Combos     BASIC PLAN -9

Place Only I - on Rows 1 & 2 and
MarkR: ESPRIT SAINT/LOST
Winc: KAWAGINO/2ND
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo, LateXtra if any, Multi fancy     BASIC PLAN -27

Place Only II
Here: EBONY LADY/LOST/LIBERATE/Won - BRAVE VILLA/Won
Winc: WIZARD OF EDGE/LOST - OLIMPO/ur/REBEL RAIDER/2ND
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN -1

Naps I - No selection

Naps II
KAWAGINO/2nd - ALMOST BROKE/2nd - see above
Bets: Total Combo     BASIC PLAN -2

My Lay bets - None

Tips
1) No Main win tip today but a very strong mention of ESPRIT SAINT/LOST (MarkR)
Bet: Quasi major tip bet (split Win/Place Only, totalling 40 points)     [OVERALL -40]
2) No Major Lay tip today     [OVERALL N/A]
3) No 4 INSIDE PASSAGE F/c 5/1 806 Chuc(USA/NON RUN
BLUSHING Currently 22/10 Vaal(RSA/2ND
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.08)]
4) Endorsements (Good words):
WEET WATCHERS/LOST - no bet (Here) - SUPREME TADGH/2ND (MarkR)
Bet: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.10)]
(b) Winc: OLIMPO/ur - BOLD FIRE/non run - FLIGHT LEADER/2ND
      MarkR: STAN/3RD
      Here: BRAVE VILLA/WON
Bets: Place Only (Stats adjusted)     [OVERALL +1]

Fancies
MarkR: YABOYA/WON - TASHKANDI/WON
Winc: ALMOST BROKE/2nd
Wolv: AUSSIE CRICKET/LOST
Bets: Tiny Fancy Multi (EWTrebles) with Place Only I
OLIMPO/ur/REBEL RAIDER/2nd - (LIBERATE/Won/EBONY LADY/Lost no bet, too late) - AUSSIE CRICKET/3rd/NEW BEGINNING/WON - ALMOST BROKE/2nd/ANNIE FLEETWOOD/LOST
Bets: Multi Fancy Combo (3x3 WTreble - EW by mistake)     [OVERALL -8]