The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Wed Nov 15 2006
Day227Month08Week3.1(Phase 06C Day15)

Off day in how I deployed my short-list
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
6 in my short-list, 3 of which are strong 'Majority stat' consensus favs, the others 'Medium' or so. My other stats are only especially encouraging on the chances of the win re TWELVE PACES/2ND (though its Majority stat is weak @ 51W80L). For some obscure reason, it's YOUNG ALBERT/2ND I've gone with in Row 2, whilst others I originally restricted to Row 3 but, belatedly, relegated to Place Only I (FLINT RIVER/LOST & SCARLET MIX/WON).
Not a lot of cash risked, but risked it is. I may lose money today.
OUTCOME: I was too tired last night to think straight and paid the penalty today     BASIC PLAN -7 (within OVERALL -87)

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Nov Week 3.2 Day 228 (Phase C: Day 16)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +74 @ an average, this Phase, of +c5/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-115 points @ an average of -c8/day. Gain-days in Phase 06B: Nov: 9xB/Plan (7xO/all) [*see above for this month's O/all gain/loss] *Break-even days count as Win ones - a new ruling I've introduced - on the basis that 'if I haven't lost, I must have won,' which, about betting on horses, I think is fair enough!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within  OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Row 1 - No qualifier

Row 2
1250 Hexh. YOUNG ALBERT/2ND F/c 4/7 Min value odds, according to my 'odds configuration' stat, + 20% = 2.00 New odds stat staked enhancer (Row 2) x 1.21 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.74 No halving of stakes for over obstacles today
Bets: Capped Basic, Token FS, Place Only, the 3 Combos, Supplementary Short-List Combo (including FLINT RIVER/LOST F/c 6/4 & SCARLET MIX/WON F/c 11/8), Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on FLINT RIVER/Lost & SCARLET MIX/Won, Mistakes: Xtra 123/A & Total/A Combos, Discrepancy [-0.88]     BASIC PLAN -2  plus OVERALL increased to -44

Row 3
1230 SoutA. JOST VAN DYKE/LOST F/c 13/8 Min value odds + 20% = 2.30 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.94 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.29
250 Hexh. TWELVE PACES/2ND F/c 10/11 Min val odds + 20% = 1.83 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.63 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.64 No halving of stakes for over obstacles
345 KempA. ECCOLLO/WON F/c 4/6 Min val odds +20% = 2.03 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.94 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.75 (based on just 15 results)
Bets: Basic, Place Only, the 3 Combos     BASIC PLAN -2

Place Only I - on Rows 2 & 3 and
SoutA: FLINT RIVER/Lost
Warw: SCARLET MIX/Won
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo     BASIC PLAN -1

Place Only II - No qualifier

Naps I
Folk: YOUNG ALBERT/2nd
Bets: Basic, 'Double' (an enhancement of the Win bet as there is no 2nd qualifier), 2-Row Double (with Row 1 normally, but today as per the 'Double'), Total Combo     BASIC PLAN -1

Naps II
SCARLET MIX/Won - TWELVE PACES/2nd - ECCOLLO/Won
Bets: Total Combo     BASIC PLAN -1

My Lay bets - None

Tips
1) Main win tip to hand is MOUSTIQUE DE L'ISLE/FELL F/c 7/1 220 Hexh.
Similar to yesterday. ...in more ways than one
Bets: Small win, the balance Place Only, to grand total of 40 points     [OVERALL -40]
2) Major Lay tip to hand is BALIAN/HRS LOST F/c 5/2 100 SoutA.
Seems fair enough.
Bet: Minimum stake    [OVERALL +2]
3) DIAMOND FEVER F/c 9/5 Race 5 Dela/USA/LOST - from yesterday
THAT'S A SECRET F/c 8/1 RACE 2 CHUR/USA/LOST
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.40)]
4) Endorsements (Good words):
ECCOLLO/Won (KempA)
Bet: Tiny win     [OVERALL +1]
(b) Hexh: YOUNG ALBERT/2ND - KINBURN/2ND - TWELVE PACES/2ND - POSH STICK/2ND
Warw: MR AITCH/2ND - SCARLETT MIX/WON
Bets: Place Only (Stats adjusted)     [OVERALL +2]

Fancies - No selections