The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Tue Nov 14 2006
Day226Month08Week2.7(Phase 06C Day14)

Awful lots of placed 'Fancies.' Very much a 'nearly' day.
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
4 in my short-list today: 2 strong consensus favs, and my stats encouragingly supportive for their chance to win. Even so, I've located both in Row 3. Not a lot risked.
OUTCOME: EW bets would have done all right, perhaps, today    BASIC PLAN +2 (within OVERALL +25)

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Nov Week 3.1 Day 227 (Phase C: Day 15)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +81 @ an average, this Phase, of +c6/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of *-28 points @ an average of -c2/day. Gain-days in Phase 06B: Nov: 9xB/Plan (7xO/all) [*see above for this month's O/all gain/loss] *Break-even days count as Win ones - a new ruling I've introduced - on the basis that 'if I haven't lost, I must have won,' which, about betting on horses, I think is fair enough!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within  OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2): Supplementary Short-List Combo (including Row 3, EXECUTIVE PADDY/WON & CAPITALISE/LOST), Mistakes, Discrepancy [Negligible]     OVERALL +3

Row 3
140 Folk. SUPERROLLERCOASTER/WON F/c 4/5 Min value odds, according to my Odds configuration stat, + 20% = 1.83 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.63 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.14 Halving stakes as the race is over obstacles not applied as the stakes are low
210 Folk. BONCHESTER BRIDGE/WON F/c 8/13 Min val odds + 20% = 1.83 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.63 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.74 No halving of stakes for over obstacles
Bets: Basic, Place Only (Bonchester Bridge), the 3 Combos     BASIC PLAN +2

Place Only I - on Row 3 (except Superrollercoaster) and
Fake: EXECUTIVE PADDY/Won - CAPITALISE/Lost
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (including element for Superrollercoaster)     BASIC PLAN -1

Place Only II
Fake: RELATIVE HERO/2ND - ALTILHAR/WON
SoutA: COMPTON CHARLIE/3RD/WILMINGTON/LOST
Bet: Basic     BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.18]

Naps I
Folk: BONCHESTER BRIDGE/Won (see above) & GARDE CHAMPETRE/2ND F/c Evs
Bets: Basic, Sequential Double, 2-Row Double (with Row 1 normally, but today an enhancement of the existing Double), Total Combo     BASIC PLAN +2

Naps II
CAPITALISE/Lost F/c 11/8
Bets: Total Combo     BASIC PLAN -1

My Lay bets - None

Tips
1) Main win tip to hand is CALCULAITE/2ND (@ 10/3 F/c 7/1 330 Fake.
Current odds around 3/1. The value may have gone already. But I am always wary of such fast-shortening odds, anyway. Often, the price drifts out again and the horse disappoints. I tend to feel the F/c odds reflect the 'form in the book' and I should be cautious.
A drop, in this case, from F/c 7/1 to 3/1 avail., a good sign? I say, for betting, it is an encouraging sign that the horse is quite likely at least to run into a place. Spot on, this time Bets: Small win (@ sp+ with Centrebet), the balance Place Only (split between Betfair & Tote Place [via bet365]), to grand total of 40 points     [OVERALL +28]
2) Major Lay tips to hand are at SoutA: DAZZLING OLIVIA/HRS LOST & DIMINUTO/NON RUN Seem fair enough selections
Bets: Minimum liability     [OVERALL +2]
3) THAT'S OUR SONG F/c 5/2 735 Dela(USA/LOST - from yesterday
No 4 DIAMOND FEVER F/c 9/5 Race 5 Dela/USA/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.23)]
4) Endorsements (Good words):
Fake: EXECUTIVE PADDY/Won - CAPITALISE/Lost no bet - POLAR SCOUT/3RD no bet - COOL ROXY/WON no bet - WRENLANE/3RD no bet
Bet: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (+0.04)]
(b) Fake: EXECUTIVE PADDY/Won - CAPITALISE/Lost
Folk: PLUME D'OUDAIRIES/2ND - BONCHESTER BRIDGE/Won - GARDE CHAMPETRE/2nd
Bets: Place Only (Stats adjusted)     [OVERALL +2]

Fancies
Wolv: BAVARICA/3RD
'4321' Bet: Small Win
SoutA: COMPTON CHARLIE/3rd/WILMINGTON/Lost
Fake: EXECUTIVE PADDY/Won/RELATIVE HERO/2nd - CAPITALISE/Lost/ALTILHAR/Won
Bets: WTrebles
Fake: COOL ROXY/Won
Folk: GARDE CHAMPETRE/2nd
SoutA: FORMIDABLE WILL/WON - SHIFTY/3rd
Wolv: CORDELIA/2ND - WHAZZIS/WON - SEA OF CALM/3RD - BAVARICA/3rd
Bets: Tiny Fancy Multi (WTrebles), Tiny Multi Fancy Combo (with Place Only I & II[Not Relative Hero & Wilmington])       OVERALL -11