2006-Nov-12
Diary for Nov 12 2006
Day224Month08Week2.5Sunday Mode(Phase 06C Day12)
Should have been reasonably good
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
8 in my short-list today (5 won, 2 placed and 1 lost), all strong Sunday consensus favs on the face of it, but my stats are strongly supportive of the win on only TIDAL BAY/WON (Row 1) &, to a lesser extent, IT TAKES TIME/LOST (Row 3 because my 'odds configuration' stat for it says only a bit better than 50/50 for the win Doubt born out, at least
OUTCOME: Not one of my better days. I needlessly missed bets that cost me dear, relatively. Had Dishdasha won, last knockings, a significant difference for the better would have saved the day partially. As it is, I have to be highly satisfied with the small profit I squeaked on Basic Plan BASIC PLAN +3 (within OVERALL -22)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
Note: I now express these summaries as "Basic Plan within Overall."
C/F to Nov Week 2.6 Day 225 (Phase C: Day 13)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C wef 01/11/06) = +70 @ an average of +c6/day .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -52* points @ an average (this Phase) of -c4/day. Gain-days in Phase 06B: Nov:- 7 Basic Plan (6 Overall) [*see above for this month's overall gain/loss position] Note: Break-even days count as Win ones - a new ruling I've introduced - on the basis that 'if I haven't lost, I must have won,' which, about betting on horses, I think is fair enough!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Row 1
1220 Carl. TIDAL BAY/Won F/c 4/6 Min value odds according to my Odds configuaration stat + 20% = 1.59 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 1.70 Old stat stakes enhancer x 4.20 (based on only 26 results)
Bets: Capped Basic + Mop Up, 2-Row 'Doubles' (with Naps 1 normally but today an enhancement of the Win single as there is no 2nd qualifier/selection), 2-Row 'Trebles' (with Row 2 normally but no other qualifier, so a further enhancement of the Win single - overlooked), Capped Place Only, the 3 Combos Bit of a disaster. I was too tired to finish my work last night, overslept, overlooked to place 1/3rd of my win bet stake, NO Place Only bet got matched. Bear in mind, I'd also declined to incorporate a Star bet element today. "Disaster;" definitely. BASIC PLAN +3
Row 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2): Supplementary Short-List Combo (including not mentioned below: SKIPPERS BRIG/WON), Xtra S/L Combos after Swift Sailor, Mistakes, Discrepancy [+0.70] OVERALL increased to +1
Row 3
210 Chel. IT TAKES TIME/Lost F/c 7/4 Min value odds + 20% = 2.07 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.50 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.60 (also based on 26 results)
255 Font. HOWADETH/WON F/c 11/8 Min val odds + 20% = 2.32 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.63 Old stat stakes enhancer not avail (only 1 result to go on, which was a win)
405 Font: DISHDASHA/2ND F/c Evs Included due to support (2xNaps)
Bets: Place Only (on Howadeth), the 3 Combos, Xtras if any BASIC PLAN -2
Place Only I - on Rows 1 & 3 (except It Takes Time) and
Font: ONCE A BROWNIE/WON - missed bet
Bet: Basic, Xtra Combo (including It Takes Time), LateXtras if any BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.03]
Place Only II - No qualifier
Naps I
TIDAL BAY/Won - see above
Bets: Basic, 'Double' (an enhancement of the win single as no 2nd qualifier), 2-Row 'Double' (with Row 1 - see above), Total Combo, Xtras if any BASIC PLAN +3
Naps II
HOWADETH/Won & DISHDASHA/2nd - see above
Bets: Total Combo, Xtras if any BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.22]
My Lay bets - None
Tips
1) PEDROBOB/LOST
Bets: Small win, the balance Place Only, to grand total of 30 points [OVERALL -30]
2) No Major Lay tip to hand [OVERALL N/A]
3) No 4 SUSIES GAL F/c 8/1 637 Chur(USA/WON
SWEET WAKE/LOST F/c 4/1 245 Chel.
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.04)]
4) Endorsements (Good words):
DISHDASHA/2nd - see above
Bet: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.10)]
(b) Carl: TIDAL BAY/Won - no bet in error Font: ONCE A BROWNIE/Won - no bet in error - PRIORS DALE/WON - SWIFT SAILOR/WON - HOWADETH/Won - DISHDASHA/2nd
Bets: Small stats-adjusted Place Only, Tiny Multi Fancy Combo Overlooked (Pity), Xtra/A after Priors Dale [OVERALL +4]
Fancies
COWBOY BOOTS/WON
Bet: Tiny win
Carl: TIDAL BAY/Won
Font: ONCE A BROWNIE/Won - PRIORS DALE/Won - COWBOY BOOTS/Won - SWIFT SAILOR/Won - HOWADETH/Won - DISHDASHA/2nd
Bets: Tiny Multi Fancy Combo (WTrebles) Overlooked, Xtra/A after Cowboy Boots OVERALL EVEN [+0.22]
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