The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Fri Nov 10 2006
Day222Month08Week2.3(Phase 06C Day10)

I had the stats today but not the confidence
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
6 in my short-list today, none very strong [consensus favs] - well, perhaps, EMIRATES FIRST/WON is - just about - but it is opposed by three in the Selection Box (often a sign of a fav that is not as strong as one is thinking). I've located it in Row 3 ... along with strong consensus favs YUNGABURRA/WON, which is also opposed but I think might be strong enough to win, and RASHARROW(Saddle slipped).
STANDIN OBLIGATION/WON joins these in Row 3 mainly on its Support. The others, both strong consensus favs, too, are cautiously in Place Only I. But I'm not at all confident that I have my short-listed runners participating in the right places and, therefore, bet categories.
Chances of a profit do appear clear - so my stats 'say' - but I have this uneasy feeling that Seconditis might raise its head on me today. Also, I've noticed that, after an exceptional day of profits for punters, mysteriously the bookies so very often immediately win back most or all of their recent losses! [Um. Saddle slip.] Hopefully, if I am being over-cautious, I'll do all right in the multiples to compensate for the lack of meaty [win] single bets (of which I have none today).
OUTCOME: The failure of both Rasharrow (-22) and Royal Eclair (-8) to Place was my undoing on Basic Plan. All the same, I have to think I should have done better.     BASIC PLAN -6 (within OVERALL -45)

Financial Summary E&OE:-
Note: I now express these summaries as "Basic Plan within Overall."
C/F to Nov Week 2.4 Day 223 (Phase C: Day 11)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C wef 01/11/06) = -6 @ an average of -c1/day .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -129* points @ an average (this Phase) of  -c13/day. Gain-days in Phase 06B: Nov:- 5 Basic Plan (5 Overall) [*see above for this month's overall gain/loss position] Note: Break-even days count as Win ones - a new ruling I've introduced - on the basis that 'if I haven't lost, I must have won,' which, about betting on horses, I think is fair enough!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within  OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifiers
Bets (Row 2): Capped (@ 2/3rds) Supplementary Short-List Combo, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on the Short-list, Xtra S/L/1 Combo after Rasharrow, Mistakes: 123 Combo/A EWTrebles placed in error instead of EW4-Fold Accum.(the only mistake that did not work in my favour today), SPOT THE DIFFERENCE/WON (Place Only) over-bet, Xtra 123/Total/2  in error after Royal Eclair (Oops, not in bet!), As usual I cocked up the counter-back by over-betting on the re-lay of MISTER FROG/HRS LOST, Discrepancy [-0.99]     OVERALL reduced to +2

Row 3
100 Newc. RASHARROW/SS F/c 3/7 Min value odds according to my Odds configuaration stat + 20% = 2.05 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.54 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.29 Halving of stakes for the multiples disregarded (as stakes are low)
410 Chel. STANDIN OBLIGATION/Won F/c 13/8 Included on Support (3xNaps,1xNB) Halving of stakes for the multiples disregarded
420 Wolv. YUNGABURRA/Won F/c 1/2 Min val odds + 20% = 2.05 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.54 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.14
520 Wolv. EMIRATES FIRST/Won F/c 5/4 Min val odds +20% = 1.83 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.60 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.48
Bets: Capped Basic (Rasharrow only), Place Only, the 3 Combos, Xtra/1 per Combo after Rasharrow    BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.15]

Place Only I - on Row 3 and
Chel: ROYAL AUCLAIR/LOST
Newc: EUROPEAN DREAM/WON
Bet: Basic, Xtra Combo, LateXtras/1,-/2     BASIC PLAN -8

Place Only II
Chel: SPOT THE DIFFERENCE/Won
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN +1

Naps I
RASHARROW/ss & EMIRATES FIRST/Won - see above
Bets: Basic, Sequential Double, 2-Row Double (with Row 1 but today an enhancement of the existing Double), Total Combo, Xtra Total/1 after Rasharrow     BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.32]

Naps II
YUNGABURRA/Won - see above
Bets: Total Combo     BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.40]

My Lay bets - None

Tips
1) Main Win tip to hand KALDERON/LOST F/c 5/2 155 Chel.
Bets: Small win, the balance Place Only, to grand total of 40 points     [OVERALL -40]
2) Major Lay tip to hand is MISTER FROG/Hrs lost F/c 5/2 355 Newc.
Seems fair enough, though initial market support is worrying I counter backed to win, in view of market support, & to gain a more favourable liability on the Lays.
Bet: Minimum stake     [OVERALL +2]
3) DRILLING FOR OIL F/c 5/1 907 Chur(USA/LOST - from yesterday
No 7 GONE OVERBOARD F/c 4/1 1003 Chur(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.10)]
4) Endorsements (Good words):
(a) YUNGABURRA/Won - see above
Bet: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (+0.04)]
(b) Chel: FROM DAWN TO DUSK/2ND; Newc: EUROPEAN DREAM/Won - RASHARROW/ss - ARCTIC GHOST/LOST
Bets: Small Place Only     [OVERALL -2]

Fancies
FLYLOWFLYLONG/LOST - from yesterday
Chel: CUAN NA GRAI/LOST - JEFFERTITI/WON
Bets: Tiny Multi Fancy (EWDouble), Xtra M-F/1 after Cuan na Grai     OVERALL EVEN [-0.45]