2006-Nov-8
Diary for Nov 08 2006
Day220Month08Week2.1 (Phase 06C Day08)
Cautious day, cautious gain
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
Three qualifiers today, two strong/one medium strong but have gone with them all only in Row 3. My stats are very encouraging for the win only on PRIME DEFENDER/WON. Modest risk.
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN +19 (within OVERALL +8)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
Note: I now express these summaries as "Basic Plan within Overall."
C/F to Nov Week 2.2 Day 221 (Phase C: Day 9)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C wef 01/11/06) = -43 @ an average of -c5/day .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) = -114* points @ an average (this Phase) of -c14/day. Gain-days in Phase 06B: Nov: 4 Basic Plan (4 Overall) [*see above for this month's overall gain/loss position]
Note: Break-even days count as Win ones - a new ruling I've introduced - on the basis that 'if I haven't lost, I must have won,' which, about betting on horses, I think is fair enough!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2): Supplementary Short-List Combo (Partly Sequential: 1st race Single, standard Double on the remaining 2), Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on Row 3 qualifiers, Mistakes: I doubled up on part of the S/L Combo bet (worked in my favour), Discrepancy [Negligible] OVERALL +22
Row 3
150 Wolv. YUNGABURRA/WON F/c 4/5 Min value odds, according to my 'odds configuration' stat, + 20% = 2.40 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.51 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.48
240 Bang. TRITONIX/WON F/c 8/13 Min value odds + 20% = 2.05 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.51 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.71 Capped stake for the multiples
250 Wolv. PRIME DEFENDER/WON F/c 2/5 Min value odds + 20% = 1.60 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.51 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.12
Bets: Capped Basic, Place Only, the 3 Combos, Xtra Total/1
The Place Only bet on Yungaburra un-matched, annoyingly BASIC PLAN +10
Place Only I - On Row 3
Bet: Basic, Xtra Combo (Prime Defender capped) BASIC PLAN +3
Place Only II
Bang: SO CLOUDY/3RD - MONASHEE GREY/LOST
Wolv: KOMPETE/3RD
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.21]
Naps I
YUNGABURRA/Won & PRIME DEFENDER/Won - see above
Bets: Basic, Sequential Double, 2-Row Double (with Row 1 but today an enhancement of the existing Double), Total Combo, Xtra Total/1 BASIC PLAN +5
Naps II
Wolv: TRINCOLO/LOST
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN +1
My Lay bets - None
Tips
1) Main Win tip today is BACK IN BUSINESS/FELL - in contention for a Place F/c 5/1 230 Ling.
Bets: About 1/5th to Win, the balance Place Only, to grand total of 30 points [OVERALL -30]
2) No Major Lay tip today [OVERALL N/A]
3) CURSORA F/c 5/1 Race9Chur(USA/WON - from yesterday
No 5 SILENT STREET F/c 5/1 Race 5 Churc/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL +1]
4) Endorsements (Good words):
(a) None
Bet: Tiny win [OVERALL N/A]
(b) Ling: BAJAN SUNSHINE/LOST - MYSON/2ND
Bang: CORSO PALLADIO/LOST - COUDY LANE/LOST - ANOTHER PROMISE/LOST - TRITONIX/WON - SO CLOUDY/3rd
Bets: Small Place Only [OVERALL -4]
Fancies
Ling: NIGHTFLY/WON
Wolv: TRINCOLO/Lost - HUNTING CALL/LOST
Bets: Tiny Multi Fancy (WTrebles), Xtra Multi/1 (EWDouble) OVERALL EVEN [-0.32]
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