Bets for May 07 2008
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night): Ad Hoc Mode applied. Short list: RAPSCALLION/WON OFAREL D'AIRY/WON KADOUNT/WON (Place Only I). David of bet4place.com had a poor day with his tips so I entered the UK races with a deficit of 19 pts.
Note: Though still in "The Delta Quadrant," I am regaining "Intermediary Scope" but still compute bets as per usual as a guide. GLOSSARY ON THE PHILOSOPHY IS AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS ENTRY - There is also an editorial entry from the dim and distant past which I updated recently (but a further update is now overdue)
Note: This Phase I tend to limit Rows 1-3 to Win+MopUp bets, occasionally just Place Only in Row 3. I now deduct the value of any Win bets, usually, from the computed Place Only stakes. Another change is that I tend not to combine Base Stakes on Rows, but choose instead the Row I feel pitches the Base Stake at the level with which I feel most comfortable. Currently, too, I consider adding Supplements to Capped stakes on Row 1 qualifiers only (though I still calculate them elsewhere).
C/f to May 08 (Month5Week 2.1Day??Phase08BDay71) - BASIC PLAN Phase 08B (begun 01/Mar/08) updated deficit -44* pts … which is part of a deficit of -253 pts implicit within 2008's OVERALL deficit so far of -573 pts ... to which I've reinstated (added back) -5554 Overall for all of 2005 (Jan-Dec), -11022 for all of 2006 & -15 likewise for all of 2007 = Current Target break-even figure Overall = c.-17,167 pts.
Since 01.03.08 Ave. deficit of c-1/day* Phase 08B/Basic Plan over 70 days
3 x Win days so far on Basic Plan in May (including any no-bet days because discounting them would wrongly imply that they were 'Loss' days & because, note, 'Even' days count as 'Win' ones, here: "If I haven't lost, I must have won."), 17 in Apr, 17 in Mar, 14 in Feb, 14 in Jan, 20 in Dec, 22 in Nov, 20 in Oct, 22 in Sep, 17 in Aug, 16 in Jul, 17 in Jun, 15 in May, 14 in April, E&OE
Summary Day 359 (wef 01/04/07 Month12Wk4.7+3Day359) which brought an end to my Apr to Mar accounting. (I now account Jan-Dec)
BASIC PLAN surplus +112 by 31/03/08 (since 01/01/06) This has to be regarded as breaking even on Basic Plan. Overall, however, the position is vastly different. (Discontinued this stat wef 1st April, 2008.) E&OE
Row 1: C/f (N)/13 pts: No qualifier - [Bets: Capped Basic Win/Capped Basic Place/No Star Win bet (C/f (P)/33 pts)+No MopUp] BASIC PLAN N/A
Row 2: C/f (I)/14 pts: No qualifier - [Bets: No Basic Win/No Basic Place Only/No Basic FS Win (C/f (L)/13 pts) +No MopUp; Capped bet Supplements NOT CALCULATED: [(C/f (A)/40 pts) Win bet; Win & Place; Place bet;] No Misc. Ad Hoc bets [(C/f (Y)/11 pts): Basic Win bet+MopUps; Randum staked bet; Basic Place;] Mistake(s): (Now O/6 pts): Missed including RAPSCALLION/Won in Diminished Total (Pl) Combo (Disadvantage); Also: Fees (Nil) Discrepancies (Not checked) BASIC PLAN N/A [plus OVERALL EVEN]
Row 3: C/f (O)/23 pts: No qualifier - [Bets: No Basic Win)/No Basic Place Only/No Basic RS Win bet (C/f (R)/12 pts) + No MopUp] BASIC PLAN N/A
No 123 Combo (C/f K/7 pts): [Bets: No Win Double/EWTreble+MopUps+Xtra] BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only I: Now (B)/50 pts: Short list/All 3 won,no single bets - Bets: No Basic/No Basic Short List 'Combo' (C/f (U)/42 pts)/Diminished Total Place Combo (Now D/9 pts) Place D/(Treble missed) BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only I/RSA: C/f (N)/33 pts: [Not checked - 0PL (incl. 0W)0L 0Nr - Bets: No Basic] BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only II: Now (Y)/51 pts: HE'S A SHAW THING/LOST,missed/DONCASTER ROVER/WON,missed - Bets: No Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN
Boxes: Now (R)/33 pts: THE SLIOSTAR/2ND - Bets: Ad hoc Place Only BASIC PLAN +2
Cards: C/f (Y)/31 pts: No qualifier - [Bets: Reduced Basic Place Only] BASIC PLAN N/A
Naps II: C/f (Q)/23 pts: No selection - [Bets: No Basic Win+No Mop Up] BASIC PLAN EVEN
Place Only III/Naps: C/f (O)/43 pts: No selection - [Bets: Basic] BASIC PLAN EVEN
Place Only III/bet4place.com (Now (E)/25 pts) and bet4value.com (C/f (I)/14 pts): 8 tips - 1Pl (incl 1W)7L 0Nr - Bets: Basic/Multiples/NET LOSS BASIC PLAN -18
Zone: (FR - C/f D/9 pts): No tip - Bets: No Basic Place Only [OVERALL N/A]
Basic Plan Misc. Processed tips (recently re-organised): (1) Hong Kong: C/f (Y)/11 pts: Not checked; (2) Ireland: Now (I)/14 pts: Tip/LOST,missed - Bet: No Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN EVEN
Misc Tips: Free Pricewise: Now A/10 pts: 2 Tips - 1PL(incl 0W)1L; French: C/f D/9 pts: No Tips - 0PL (incl. 0W)0L; UAR: C/f A/10 pts: No Tips - 0Pl (incl 0W)0L;USA: C/f B/10 pts: - Bets: Ad hoc EW [OVERALL EVEN (-0.22)]
Anti Post (Free Pricewise): C/f H/8 pts: CENTENIAL (Derby 7/06/08) - Bets: Basic Win [OVERALL PENDING]
GLOSSARY ON THE PHILOSOPHY (updated 03.01.08)
AMD: an "alphabetical monitoring device" for non-level stakes betting. If the metaphorical 'dial' 'reads' a negative "ZH," the next day's gain, in a bet category, would take it to "ZG," or, if a day's loss, to "ZI" i.e., it rises up the alphabet with a day's loss and falls back following a day's win. In a deficit situation, having reaching "ZA," then "Z" (i.e., at this point the 'A' is dropped - of course, only after a gain), then on from "Z" to, finally, the original "A" (the aim) which, once achieved, will have squared off that bet's account as regards gain v. loss days. Why express it this way? Well, it has the same advantages that you get with algebra. I used to get lost when only using figures if, for example, banks were artifically adjusted (up and/or down) several times. Actually it is most unlikely, now, that I would allow a bet category to 'live' much past 1/3rd up the alphabet.
[To illustrate: the sequence on the, then, Supplementary bets peaked deficit-wise on 26th April, 2006 @ "ZW." I had brought it 'down' to "ZC" by 10th September, 2006. At last, the account was squared off - anyway, as regards Gain v. Loss days - just before the very end of 2007. This year, instead of starting the sequence again at "A," I have cut in with the increasingly important Capped bets Supplementary category, for which the current (unchanged) AMD reads strictly "(AAA)" but expressed above as "(A)/40 pts." Very satisfactory.]
After the alphabet has gone through the positive/gains way past A to (Z) a couple or more times, I drop the "A" down the alphabet except whilst the reading hovers around it - say, fluctuating between (UA) and (B). In this case, the size of the Base Stake alongside indicates that 'roll arounds' the alphabet have happened in the bet type's history. No significant confusion results from this apparent inconsistency, therefore.
Between (B) and (A) the 1st time down the alphabet I jump 5 pts at a stroke, by the way, instead of the 1 pt that happens elsewhere down or up the alphabet, plus a further 1 pt, next, at (ZA). The 2nd time down, and after that, I make the 5 pts jump at (D). This makes the improvement or deterioration total 10 points +1 per every run up or down the alphabet (except deterioration at the very beginning of the 'life' of a bet category, about which more below at *).]
I use the device to set a separate Base Stake for each one of my bet categories. Originally, I started with an increment of 1pt per single move up or down the alphabet but soon changed this, basically, to a 1 point change for every 5 letters of improvement/deterioration, assessed daily. *Deterioration from the original start point, however, I change per 3 letters i.e., Base stake of 10 pts at A, changed to 9 at D, to 8 at G etc.
In my diary blog I now indicate the AMD status of each of my main bet categories. The figure alongside the reading indicates the current Base Stake. Note that the Base Stake is the start-point of calculations made to arrive at the actual stake bet by bet (which, of course, can be rather more or, more often, rather less than the Base stake; I seriously consider capping the bet when the indicated stake level is more than double the Base Stake). After this, I add a Top Up to the Capped stake quite often or, if the adjusted stake is way in excess of the capped amount, I add a Supplement (which has a Base Stake of its own in my records, like it's a separate bet, but I add it "Flat" at present as the supplement i.e., un-adjusted). Currently, however, I am betting at Token levels (except on Aussie races), unless the adjusted stake computes small already.
A major weakness of the AMD does still remain in that it inherently ignores the monetary side. If I lose high and win low (a common eventuality), this does not reflect appropriately in the reading: one letter up the alphabet for the former case, down one for the latter are clearly inadequate increments. Nevertheless, I don't feel any great need to change to a more complicated formula. If I keep an eye, also, on how the bank of any particular bet is looking, I think, in combination, these two indicators are effective enough as they stand.
123 COMBO: Multiple bet consisting of runners from Rows 1, 2 & 3.
4321 SINGLE: Win bet on a runner that has finished 1, 2, 3 & 4 within its previous six races.
BANKS: I record losses and gains separately on all main bet categories. They are not used to set stake levels.
BASE STAKE: The start point for stats-adjustment of stakes, a separate one for each bet category.
BASIC PLAN: Bet types I depend on (after having been tested and proven within OVERALL).
BASIC: Stats-adjusted single bet.
CAPPED: I allow stats adjusted stakes to reach twice the Base Stake level as a matter of course, then add a Supplement, CAPPING the bet after that if the total has still not reached the computed adjusted stake level.
COMBO: Multiple bet that includes runners from more than one "ROW." Notional stake contributions are calculated per runner exactly as on single bets but the stake to be committed is arrived at by totalling the contributions, averaging, and adjusting for, usually, Doubles (half), sometimes Trebles (1/3rd) if the runners are extra strong & an Accumulator (or equivalent i.e., Single sometimes, or Double or Treble).
CONSENSUS FAVOURITE: The most popular selection in the Racing Post’s Selection Box.
DELTA QUADRANT: Borrowed from Star Trek as my name for when I cannot freely ‘go with my numbers’ having lost SCOPE. Currently, I find myself back in the Delta Quadrant, unfortunately, except as regards Aussie racing (whilst I retain enough in my Aussie account).
FLAT (e.g., "FLAT BASIC"): A stake that is at its BASE level i.e., non-adjusted.
FS: A supplement to a "BASIC" bet in Row 2 added when my stats look extra favourable (though I take liberties with this @ token or capped levels). Note: The letters FS originate from "Fibonacci Series," a loss recovery staking system that I experimented with some time ago but have discontinued except in a severely diluted form - See 'Remedial Supplementaries' within the entry on "SUPPLEMENTARIES."
INFILTRATION: See under "NAPS."
LateXtra COMBO: If a runner in the "XTRA COMBO" fails to win, I usually re-back the remaining runners in a further Accumulator. Though the runners reduce in number with each additional LateXtra bet, usually I commit the same stake as per the Xtra Combo (though I will de-cap capped levels if indicated by the reduction in the number of runners).
"LAURA LUCK" days: When clear "CONSENSUS FAVOURITES" are thin on the ground and, generally, a 'lorra' (lot of) luck may to be needed to achieve a profit.
MAJORITY STAT: I make a note of the size of tipster majority that qualifiers enjoyed in the Racing Post Selection Boxes over the second most favoured runners. Note: I maintain a different set of Majority stats for Sundays because fewer Press Corps tipsters contribute selections on that day of the week.
MISTAKES: Accounted under "OVERALL" (as quasi-Supplementaries) unless they are tied-in elsewhere in my accounts due to some complicating factor.
MY LAY BETS: [Currently out of favour.]
MOP UP: Place Only bets made along with win bets to help nudge returns up a point or two towards profit/extra profit (or mitigate slightly against loss) by the end of an accounting period.
NAPS: I follow the tips of 8/9 tipsters from the Naps Table. If 2 of these tips coincide I also back it in Naps II (or, in Naps I, if 3 or more tips coincide) to introduce Win bets as well as Place Only ones.
NEW ODDS STAT: This stat is restricted to Rows 1 & 2 qualifiers and has two elements:
(1) A record of qualifiers' results according to (a) which Row they were put into and (b) the number of runners F/c @ under 14/1 that were forecast to be competing; and
(2) a stat (that I call "General") which combines the results of the two Rows into one total for each size of field F/c @ under 14/1.
Except on Aussie results, I only update stat records on outcomes for Rows 1 and 2 qualifiers at present. Note: My preference is for checking on my most major selection processes (as opposed to recording race outcomes across the board).
ODDS CONFIGURATION STAT: My present standard for this stat is "the number of runners F/c @ under 8/1 and those F/c @ 8/1 or above but under 14/1," a separate stat for each configuration e.g., one category, alternatively expressed, is "4 runners F/c @ under 14/1 of which 3 are F/c @ under 8/1." This stat shows the number of wins and losses which past qualifiers for, solely, Rows 1 & 2 experienced in races with the same F/c "ODDS CONFIGURATION." It is used, along with 2 other stat categories, plus the F/c odds ['odds-on' reversed, now, such that the skinnier the odds-on price, the smaller the stake computes to (I used to treat all odds-on prices notionally as Evens. Now, the final stake on an Odds On shot will be at its highest in amount at just under Evens.)], plus the number of runners F/c @ under 8/1, to adjust the relevant "BASE STAKE" for the bet category to arrive at the stake to actually commit.
SCOPE: Freedom to 'go with my numbers' on stats-adjusted stakes without Capping. INTERMEDIARY SCOPE enables me to bet 'according to my numbers' reasonably freely but involves some Capping.
SEQUENTIALS: When there are few qualifiers/selections in a multiple [Doubles usually], I often proceed singly, committing gains only after the first bet (but repeating the bet if the 1st one loses). I don't do "Sequentials" when races are due off close together in time or if the stakes are very modest in size.
SHORT-LIST COMBO: Win multiple including all the runners in my short-list. Accounted under "Overall." [Currently out of favour.]
SHORT-LIST (Place Only) COMBO: A misnomer in that it isn't a multiple. Consists of enhancements, really, of existing Place Only I single bets.
STAR: A supplement to the Basic Bet in Row 1 but sometimes on its own instead of the Basic Bet. Accounted within BASIC PLAN.
SUNDAY MODE: Major stake levels halved because the information from which qualifiers are identified is less complete on Sundays. Rarely applied currently.
SUPPLEMENTARIES: Additions to BASIC bets including staged REMEDIAL SUPPLEMENTARIES.
SUPPORT: The weight of opinion in a runner's favour (Naps/NBs, usually) gleaned from a Racing Post Selection Boxes. "GENERAL" SUPPORT means within the Naps Table as a whole (which excludes some Selection Box tipsters).
TOKEN: Standard bet using a much-lower-than-standard level of stake.
TOTAL COMBO: Multiple consisting of all runners in Rows 1,2 & 3, Naps I,II&Place Only III/Naps, usually EWDoubles plus an Accumulator. If my stats look especially encouraging, I might add EWTrebles. Much more likely to be placed without Place Only III/Naps inclusions, however, in which case I call it a DIMINISHED TOTAL COMBO.
XTRA (adjustments): As per "LateXtra."
XTRA COMBO: Multiple consisting of runners in Place Only I. An Accumulator, EW whenever possible (or, when dubious re the odds, @ SPs if in significant doubt as to how the odds will pan out).