2006-Nov-6
Diary for Nov 06 2006
Day218Month08Week1.6 (Phase 06C Day06)
Another pleasing Basic Plan profit
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
Just two duplications within the selections of my preferred 8 tipsters in the RP Naps Table, one of which is also a qualifier: TURPIN GREEN/WON (Row 3 & Naps I). My stats are encouraging enough for the win, but the 'Odds configuration' one says not that much better than 50/50 (80W70L). It should win, I would think, but I've chickened out of putting it into one of my two major Rows. The consequence is that my reliance today, apart from an investment in a major tip [MAYOUN/LOST], is on the peripheral bets (the "Combos" and the "Multi Fancies").
The other duplication is SAGREDO/2ND (Naps II &, on "Support," in Row 3).
BASIC PLAN +6 (within OVERALL -33)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Nov Week 1.7 Day 219 (Phase C: Day 7)
Note: Starting today I am expressing Basic Plan & Overall the other way round from how they have been expressed hitherto in the diary.
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C wef 01/11/06) deficit -35 @ an average of -c6/day .... within OVERALL (Phase 06C only) deficit = *-113 points @ an average (this Phase) of -c19/day. Gain-days in Phase 06B: Nov: **3 on Basic Plan (3 on Overall) [*see above for overall gain/loss position this month]
[** Break-even days count as Win ones - a new ruling I've introduced - on the basis that 'if I haven't lost, I must have won,' which, about betting on horses, I think is fair enough!]
PLUS B/F BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B - 01/08/06-31/10/06) frozen surplus = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) frozen surplus = +41 points (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/F BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A - 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) @ -366 points ..... within OVERALL Phase 06A only deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Rows 1 & 2
Bets (Row 2): Supplementary Short-List Combo (a win single as there is no other qualifier), Ad hoc Remedial Supplementary (top up to min stake) on Sagredo, Mistakes, Discrepancy [Negligible] OVERALL +4
Row 3
145 Carl. TURPIN GREEN/Won F/c 4/7 Min value odds, according to my 'odds configuration' stat, + 20% = (unmatchable?) 2.05 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.51 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.95 Capped stake for the multiples
305 Wolv. SAGREDO/2nd F/c 11/8 Included due to Support (4xNaps)
Bets: Basic(Turpin Green), Place Only (Sagredo), Ad hoc Mop Up (via share of Xtra Combo return, if any, on win bet), Sequential Combos (123, Total Combos & Xtra) BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only I
SAGREDO/2nd - see above
Bets: Basic, Sequential Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II
Wolv: TREDEGAR/WON
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.48]
Naps I
TURPIN GREEN/Won- see above
Bets: Basic (Triple stake), 'Double' (an enhancement of the win single as there is no 2nd selection), 2-Row 'Double' (with Row 1 normally but today as per the existing 'Double'), Sequential Total Combo BASIC PLAN +3
Naps II
SAGREDO/2nd (Double stake) -see above
Bets: Sequential Total Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [SQUARE]
My Lay bets - None
Tips
1) Main Win tip to hand is MAYOUN/Lost F/c 7/2 255 Carl.
Tiny Win, the balance - to grand total of 40 points - Place Only [OVERALL -40]
2) Major Lay tip to hand is CORRIB LAD/2ND 405 Carl.
Bet: Minimum stake [OVERALL +2]
3) Minor Tips - TAWQUEET Currently 5/1 Melbourne Cup (Aust/Anti-post - see day of race [OVERALL N/A]
4) Endorsements (Good words):
(a) SAGREDO/2nd
Bet: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.10)]
(b) TURPIN GREEN/Won - PARKINSON/2ND (both Carl)
Bets: Small Win on Turpin Green, small Place Only on Parkinson [OVERALL +1]
Fancies - on all, or from,
Carl: PARKINSON/2nd - FLAMING HECK/LOST
Kemp: FIREWORK/3RD
Wolv: HEROTOZERO/2ND - LA VIE FERRATA/FELL on flat - TREDEGAR/Won - ECCOLLO/WON
Bets: Multi Fancy (Win Trebles), Xtra/1 Multi Fancy (WTrebles) after Firework, Xtra/2 after Tredegar, Xtra/3 after Flaming Heck
Carl: FLAMING HECK/Lost/GREEN 'N GOLD/LOST
Kemp: FIREWORK/3rd/IMTALKINGGIBBERISH/LOST
Wolv: HEROTOZERO/2nd/CAUGHT YOU LOOKING/LOST - SAGREDO/2nd/TREDEGAR/Won
Bets: Multi Fancy (3X3Win Trebles), Xtra/1 Multi Fancy (2x2 Win Doubles) after Firework/Imtalkinggibberish OVERALL -6
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