The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Sat Nov 04 2006
Day216Month08Week1.4 (Phase 06C Day04)

HEADLINE:     Pleased with a small profit on Basic Plan
OUTCOME:     OVERALL -53 points (including BASIC PLAN +5)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
Just one duplication of selections amongst my preferred 8 tipsters in the RP Naps Table. I have gone with that. SCRIPTWRITER/LOST - in Naps II - but it isn't one of my qualifiers. On "Support," however, and taking a chance slightly against my better judgement, I've included it in Row 3 as well.
As for qualifiers in my main short list, I have 7 - but there are negatives about them all. So I have put 3 only in lowly Row 3 and have located the rest variously amongst my lesser Rows. If I was wrong to have left 4 out of my main Rows, I hope my Short-List Combo will go some way to compensate.
A tricky day to sort out, I found, and I badly need Laura Luck to be on my side in order to achieve a profit. I'm pessimistic tonight, I must admit, but have staked at a minimum. Hopefully, 'damage limitation' will come to my rescue on the aggregate total, if things gradually tip away from prospects of a profit.
Most often it does so rescue but now and again one suffers a complete white-wash. I don't expect one of those, today, but such days are the ones that bookmakers ultimately live off, I think. You seemed to have been doing all right, and then, one day, 'Bang,' a big, big, setback that takes seemingly forever to recover from - if recover you ever do.
The Place Only bet on Danehillsundance was the bet that tipped me into profit on the "Basic Plan." The subscription win tip, mainly - plus the Fancies Row & the "endorsements" section under Tips - did the damage "Overall." But Kicks for Free was originally in Row 1 and Katies Tuitor in Row 2. Had I left them there, I would have made less of an overall loss. But no regrets. It is a time for caution.

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Nov Week 1.4 Day 217 (Phase C: Day 5)
OVERALL Phase 06C only (wef 01/11/06) deficit = *-88 points @ an average (this Phase) of  -c22/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C) deficit = -36 points @ an average of -c9/day. Gain-days in Phase 06B: Nov: **2 (2) [*see above for gain/loss position during just this month]
[** Break Even days count as Win ones - a new ruling I've introduced - on the basis that if you haven't lost, you must have won!  Which, I think, is fair enough]
PLUS B/F OVERALL Phase 06B only (01/08/06-31/10/06) frozen surplus = +41 points …..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) frozen surplus = +204 points (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: Overall 15 (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201];  Oct: 18 (17) [+347])
PLUS B/F OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2): Supplementary Short-List Combo, Ad hoc Mop Up on Kicks for Free/WON, 'Stand-alone' Mistakes, Unexplained Discrepancy, if any [+0.78]     OVERALL -4

Row 3
1250 Wind. DANEHILLSUNDANCE/2ND F/c 11/10 Min value odds, according to my 'odds configuration' stat, + 20% = 1.37 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 3.29 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.71
200 Sand. KATIES TUITOR/WON F/c 1/2 Min value odds + 20% = 1.84 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.58 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.64 Halve stakes for the multiples as the race is over obstacles
105 Winc. KICKS FOR FREE/Won F/c 1/4 Min val odds + 20% = 2.00 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.58 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.48 Halve stakes for the multiples
340 Wind. SCRIPTWRITER/Lost F/c 4/1 Included due to Support (2xNaps, 4xNBs - opposed by 1xNap)
Bets: Place Only (except Scriptwriter), 123 & Total Combos + Xtras, Xtra Combo (except Scriptwriter)     BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.21]

Place Only I - on Row 3 (except Scriptwriter) and
Wind: DESERT QUEST/2ND
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo     BASIC PLAN +4

Place Only II
Kelso: TOP CLOUD/2ND - TARAS KNIGHT/WON
Sand: SA NAU/LOST
Winc: TURKO/WON - CROW WOOD/WON
Wind: EDGE CLOSER/WON - EISTEDDFOD/LOST
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN +1

Fancies
[Note: I have decided, after all, to account this Row under "Overall" as none of the selections is a qualifier within Basic Plan]
Sand: UNDERWRITER/LOST - TROMPETTE/3RD
Winc: FREE GIFT/2ND lucky
Wind: ATLANTIC LIGHT/LOST - ABHISHEKA/LOST - CENTAURUS/LOST - GREAT BRITAIN/3RD/EISTEDDFOD/Lost - SCRIPTWRITER/Lost
Bets: Multi Fancy + Xtras     OVERALL -8

Naps I  - No selection

Naps II
SCRIPTWRITER/Lost (Double stake) - see above
Bets: Total Combo + Xtras     BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.34]

My Lay bets - None

Tips
1) Main Win tip LADALKO/UR F/c 10/3 320 Winc.
Small win and, to grand total of 40 points, the balance Place Only     [OVERALL -40]
2) Major Lay tips to hand at Kelso: 145 NAMED AT DINNER/NON RUN - 255 SILENT BAY/HRS LOST - No bet (2 x non-runners make it a dodgy lay, now, I think)
Bets: Minium stake on Named at Dinner     [OVERALL N/A]
3) ART MASTER F/c 5/2 943 Chuc(USA/LOST - from yesterday
JUSTIFIED/LOST (Down) - SCRIPTWRITER/Lost/RED ADMIRAL/LOST (Wind)
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.49)]
4) Endorsement to hand (Good words) on
(a) ATLANTIC LIGHT/Lost - NAMED AT DINNER/Non run - PREDATOR/LOST
Bets: Tiny win on Atlantic Light but nothing on the others     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.10)]
(b) SA NAU (Sand) - THE BIG CANADIAN/3RD (Winc) - BOWLEAZE/FELL (Winc) - WITCH WIND/LOST (Kels) - COLLEGE CITY/LOST (Kelso)
Bets: Minimum Place Only     [OVERALL -6]