2006-Nov-1
Diary for Nov 01 2006
Day213Month08Week1.1 (Phase 06C Day01)
HEADLINE: Fancies Row qualifies for Basic Plan
OUTCOME: OVERALL -45 points (including BASIC PLAN -48)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
There is duplication of selections amongst my preferred 8 tipsters in the RP Naps Table - a good sign - and 3 of my 6 main short-list qualifiers are heavily included. This should mean a good day is in prospect - on paper. But I have decided to do no main Supplementary bets in Phase 06C unless there is a current surplus I can fund them from.
My initial list of other runners to consider was very long. Stats influenced, I thinned it out - but I'm not confident I've retained the very best selections. But I'm hopeful of making an acceptable profit today off quite low stakes. Sadly, my several winners today were not in the right bets or in quite sufficient numbers when they were - near misses everywhere!
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Nov Week 1.2 Day 214 (Phase C: Day 2)
OVERALL Phase 06C only (wef 01/11/06) deficit = -45 points @ an average of -45/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C) deficit = -48 points @ an average of -48/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Nov: 0 (0)
PLUS B/F OVERALL Phase 06B only (01/08/06-31/10/06) frozen surplus = +41 points @ an average of +c0/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) frozen surplus = +204 points @ an average of +c2/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: Overall 15 (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201]; Oct: 18 (17) [+347]
PLUS B/F OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Row 1
100 Chep. LEADING CONTENDER/2ND F/c 8/13 Min val odds, according to my 'odds configuration' stat, + 20% = 1.40 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 2.59 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.51 I have decided in Phase 06C re races over obstacles to halve stakes only for relevant component parts of significant multiples
Bets: Capped Basic (@ 21 points - for the time being, my standard max for stats-adjusted stakes Win singles), No Star bet on this occasion (to get some surplus points on the board, first, via adjusted Basic Stakes), 2-Row Doubles (with Naps 1), 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 2 - today a Sequential Double as there is no 3rd qualifier), Capped Place Only (Row 2 part of a 40 point composite bet i.e., the new max for Place Only bets is twice that of Win singles), the 3 Combos BASIC PLAN -24
Row 2
320 Chep. MARODIMA/WON F/c 1/2 Min val odds + 20% = (unmatchable?) 2.05 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.33 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.89 Stakes not halved for over obstacles - see above
Bets: Basic, No FS (for the same reason that there is no Row 1 Star bet), 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1 normally but today a Sequential Double as there is no 3rd qualifier), Place Only, Ad Hoc Supplementary Mop Up (doubled) on Leading Contender, Supplementary Short-List Combo, the 3 Combos, Mistakes: Tiny EWTreble due to Total Combo over-bet, Unexplained Discrepancy, if any [+0.80] BASIC PLAN -3 plus OVERALL -3
Row 3
235 Nott. REGAL FLUSH/WON F/c 5/4 Min val odds + 20% = (unmatchable?) 2.77 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.94 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.51
310 Nott. SHUMOOKH/LOST badly F/c 4/5 Min val odds + 20% = 2.05 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.67 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.70
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos BASIC PLAN -9
Place Only I - on Rows 1, 2 & 3 and all, or from,
Hunt: MY PETRA/WON - BUSTER HYVONEN/WON - PREDATOR/WON
Kemp: TOUCANTINI/LOST
Nott: AQUILEGIA/WON
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.39]
Place Only II
Chep: GLENGARRA/3RD
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +1
Fancies
Chep: GLENGARRA/3rd - FARMER'S LAD/3RD/THREE GUESSES/WON (@ 8/1)
Kemp: FATEFUL ATTRACTION/WON
Notts: PETROGLYPH/3RD - BOBODANA/2ND
Bet: Multi Fancy (EWTrebles) BASIC PLAN +10 (New within Basic Plan wef today)
Naps I
LEADING CONTENDER/2nd (Double stake) - MARODIMA/Won - ROYAL FLUSH/Won (Triple stake) - see above
Bets: Basic, Doubles, 2-Row Doubles (with Row 1), Total Combo (includes a Treble component today) BASIC PLAN -22
Naps II
Hunt: MY PETRA/Won
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN -2
My Lay bets - None
Tips
PEAK MARIA'S WAY F/c 9/2 829 Dela(USA/WON - from yesterday
N0.5 EXTREME SUPREME Fc 2-1 Race 10 Chur(USA-Late result - see tommorrow
Bets: Small win [OVERALL +1]
Major Lay tip to hand is JUST FOR MEN/HRS LOST (Refused) F/c 2/1 245 Chep.
Quite well opposed except that West Country has nominated it to win and he tips selectively
Bet: Minimum stake [OVERALL +2]
No Main Win tip today [OVERALL N/A]
Good word on CARNIVAL TOWN/WON (Chep) DANARIUS SECUNDUS/PU (Chep) [OVERALL +2]
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