The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Tue Oct 31 2006
Day212Month7Week4.7+3 (Phase 06B Day92)

HEADLINE:     Phase 06B ends on a gain day
OUTCOME:     OVERALL +24 points (including BASIC PLAN +6)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
There is no duplication of selections amongst my preferred 8 tipsters in the RP Naps Table, and only one has selected one of my 3 qualifiers. Signs, again, of a potentially "trappy" day, I would say. I could be wrong.
My strongest main short-listed candidates are DENMAN/WON ("medium strong") and FILIOS/WON ("very strong"). Initially, I put these into Row 1 but, cautiously, have since relegated them to Row 2. They should win, I feel.
The 3rd qualifier is WORLD SPIRIT/NON RUN (just "medium" - with my "Majority stat" rating its chance for the win as less than 50/50: 60W84L). A solid additional negative is that it is opposed by 2 Napped runners [Bahamian Love of these won] which is too worrying to ignore. Though I think "Place Only II" is about right for it, I've found that the preponderance of opinion reflected in the RP Selection Box, based as it is on the majority view on a horse's form-in-the-book chance, is worth standing by in spite of strong tipster (and *sometimes even market) opposition. [*Trinculo's win as 2nd Fav showed this point in action.] World Sprit's overall majority is 8 over the next most popular selection in its race. In anybody's language, that has to be respected as strong support, even though the historical record of this majority figure shows more losers than winners as quoted above. We'll see.

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Nov Week 1.1 Day 213 (Phase C: Day 1)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) surplus = +41 points @ an average of  +c0/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) surplus = +204 points @ an average of +c2/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: overall 15 (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201];  Oct: 18 (17) [+347]
PLUS B/F OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]

Row 1 - No selection

Row 2
310 Exet. DENMAN/Won F/c 1/2 Min val odds, according to my 'odds configuration' stat + 20% = 1.85 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.13 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.27 (I have decided in Phase 06C to halve stakes re races over obstacles only for major multiple bets)
420 Wolv. FILIOS/Won F/c 4/5 Min val odds + 20% = 2.02 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.13 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.50 (based on only 14 results: 10W4L)
Bets: Uncapped Basic, Capped FS + Mop Up, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1 normally but today a Sequential Double as there is no 3rd qualifier), Place Only (Capped re Filios - and half of that didn't get matched, annoyingly), Ad Hoc Supplementary Mop Up on Denman, Supplementary Sequential Short-List Combo, the 123 & Total Combos,  Xtra Combo (an enhancement of the existing Sequential Double),  Mistakes, Unexplained Discrepancy, if any [Negligible]
I may add a Remedial Supplementary (6th rung) on FILIOS + Mop Up Decided against    BASIC PLAN +5 plus OVERALL +20

Row 3
450 Wolv. KEIDAS/LOST F/c 7/2 Included on Support (2xNaps)
Bets: 123 & Total Combos     BASIC PLAN -1

Place Only I - on Row 2
Bets: Basic (Filios capped @ 50% of computed stake), Xtra Combo (Sequential Double)    BASIC PLAN +2

Place Only II
Catt: TRINCULO/WON/VIEWFORTH/LOST
Exet: BEAU MICHEL/WON - DOC ROW/FELL/NOTANOTHERDONKEY/2ND
Sout: WORLD SPIRIT/Non run/BAHAMIAN LOVE/WON
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.31]

Naps I
DENMAN/Won - see above
Bets: Basic, 'Double' (and enhancement of the Win single as there is no 2nd qualifier), 2-Row 'Double' (with Row 1 normally but today as per the 'Double'), Total Combo     BASIC PLAN +1

Naps II
Exet: ORNAIS/Won
Bets: Total Combo     BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.33]

My Lay bets - None

Fancies
Exet: ORNAIS/Won
Sout: MUCHO LOCO/2ND - WORLD SPIRIT/Non run/BAHAMIAN LOVE/Won
Wolv: KEIDAS/Lost
Bet: Multi Fancy (EWTrebles, EW Accum.)
Catt: TRINCULO/Won/VIEWFORTH/Lost
Exet: DOC ROW/Fell/NOTANOTHERDONKEY/2nd
Sout: WORLD SPIRIT/Non run/BAHAMIAN LOVE/Won
Bet: Tiny 2x2EWDoubles, 3x3EWTrebles     OVERALL -2

Tips
No.1 BOAT'S GHOST F/c 5/1 7 Chuc(USA/NON RUN - confirmed re the day before yesterday (stake refunded)
SADIE MY LADY 856 Dela(USA/NON RUN - from yesterday
No.1 PEAK MARIA'S WAY F/c 9/2 829 Dela(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Small win     [OVERALL EVEN (+0.34)]
No major Lay tip today    [OVERALL N/A]
No Main Win tip today     [OVERALL N/A]
No good word(s) today     [OVERALL N/A]