2006-Oct-30
Diary for Oct 30 2006
Day211Month7Week4.7+2 (Phase 06B Day91)
HEADLINE: Yet another losing subscription win tip returns a profit!
OUTCOME: OVERALL +39 points (including BASIC PLAN -5)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed last night)
All of my preferred tipsters in the Naps Table have chosen a different selection from those below and from each other. Sign of a potentially "trappy" day in my book. I could be wrong. From where I stand, I wasn't wrong.
My main short-list includes 2 consensus favs: "strong" (URBAN TIGER/3RD) in Row 2 and "Medium strong" (MOUNT BENGER/2ND) in Row 3.
Urban Tiger is opposed (but not as Naps/NBs) by Newmarket Does it again! (@ SP 10/1) I oppose his selections at my peril and West Country, and for these reasons, might be better located in Row 3. Yes! However, my stats are quite encouraging of the win and, anyway, not a lot is at stake, so instead I've included it in Row 3 as well.
I had a longer list under Fancies initially, but, with difficulty, I cut it down. It is still too long, but what the Hell. Little at stake here, also.
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Oct Week 4.7+3 Day 212 (Phase B: Day 92)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) surplus (at last!) = +17 points @ an average of +c0/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) surplus = +198 points @ an average of +c2/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: overall 15 (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201]; Oct: 17 (16) [+323]
PLUS B/F OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Row 1 - No selection
Row 2
120 Warw. URBAN TIGER/3rd F/c 1/2 Min val odds, according to my 'odds configuration' stat + 20% = 2.03 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.40 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.94 Halve stakes as the race is over obstacles
Bets: Basic, Capped FS + Mop Up, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1 normally but today an enhancement of the Win Single), Place Only, Ad Hoc Mop Up + one on MOUNT BENGER, Supplementary Sequential Short-List Combo, Sequential (Combined as there is no Naps I or II selection) 123/Total Combo, Sequential Xtra Combo, Mistakes, Unexplained Discrepancy, if any [Negligible] I had the thought, soon after I had placed my bets, that this qualifier should be in Row 3 but let it go i.e., without a counter-lay. Pity. BASIC PLAN -3 plus OVERALL -11
Row 3
120 Warw. URBAN TIGER/3rd - see above. Included due to Support (2xNaps)
310 Plum. MOUNT BENGER/2nd F/c 11/10 Min val odds + 20% = 2.32 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.49 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.27 Halve stakes as over obstacles
Bets: Place Only (Mount Benger), Combined Sequential 123/Total Combos, Xtra Combo (not Urban Tiger) BASIC PLAN -2
Place Only I - Rows 2 & 3 (Urban Tiger included only once)
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only II - No qualifier
Naps I & II - No selection
My Lay bets - None
Fancies
Plum: TRAVOLTA/3RD - BARCLAY BOY/FELL - TISSEMAN/WON
Warw: NENUPHAR COLLONGES/NON RUN - SCARLET MIX/WON/TURN OF PHRASE/3RD - GOOD SPIRIT/LOST - AMARETTO ROSE/WON/HIGH LIFE/LOST
Wolv: GYROSCOPE/3RD - DUSKINESS/LOST/BOOKIESINDEX BOY/WON
Bets: Tiny Multi-Fancy (Trebles & EW accum.)
Warw: SCARLET MIX/Won/TURN OF PHRASE/3rd - AMARETTO ROSE/Won/HIGH LIFE/Lost
Wolv: DUSKINESS/Lost/BOOKIESINDEX BOY/Won @ 8/1
Bet: Tiny 2x2EWDoubles, 3x3EWTrebles OVERALL +26
Tips
No.1 BOAT'S GHOST F/c 5/1 7 Chuc(USA/LOST (but was it a NON RUNNER?) - from yesterday
No.3 SADIE MY LADY 856 Dela(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.34 queried)]
No major Lay tip today [OVERALL N/A]
Main Win tip to hand is STERN/2ND F/c 9/2 340 Plum.
A steamer today, not that I trust these too much.
Bet: Small win, balance Place Only [Took a chance] to grand total of 40 points [OVERALL +33]
Good word on FRIARSCOURT 215 Leop(IR/LOST
Bet: Small win [OVERALL -1]
0 comments | add a comment