30th August 2006
Results of bets for Wed 30 Aug 2006
Day150Month5Week4.7+2
Phase 06B Day30
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 4.7+3 (Day151):
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -116 @ an average of -c4/day ... including BASIC PLAN Phase 06B gain = +38 @ an average of +c1/day
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit, for comparison purposes, frozen @ -2656 ... including BASIC PLAN frozen @ -366
Gaindays in Phase 06A:
11 Overall from 29 betdays in Apr [-957]; 15 from 31 in May [-174]; 15 from 30 in June [+408]; 15 from 31 in Jul [-1938]
Gaindays in Phase 06B:
14 Overall (13 Basic Plan) from 30 betdays in Aug.
Row 2
210 Wolv. WORLDLY F/c 4/9 Min value odds according to my stat + 20% = 1.88 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.06 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.10 Included in Row 2 as I usually exclude All Weather races from Row 1/WON
Bets: Basic, Token FS, Token Remedial Supplementary (10th rung) + Mop Up, 2-Row Treble (usually with Row 1 but today an enhancement of the Basic bet as no other qualifier), Place Only, 123 & Total Combos (Sequential Double), Xtra Combo (accum.) 1/3rd of the Supplementary bet failed to be matched, alas. BASIC PLAN +1 plus OVERALL +7
Row 3
400 Leic. SHUMOOKH F/c Evs Min val odds + 20% = 3.40 New odds stat stakes reducer x 0.69 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.10/2ND
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.37]
Naps I
WORLDLY (Triple stake)/Won & SHUMOOKH (Double stake)/2nd - see above
Bets: Basic, Sequential Double, 2-Row Double (with Row 1 normally but today an enhancement of the Sequential Double already in place), Total Combo BASIC PLAN +9
Naps II - No selection
Place Only I - Rows 2&3 and
Ling: SAFE INVESTMENT/2ND - BUCHAREST/NON RUN
Wolv: HUNTERS' GLEN (Xtra Combo only, taking a chance [Wrong decision])/LOST
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.04]
Place Only II
Ling: AQMAAR/3RD
Wolv: WARSAW PACT/2ND
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.33]
Fancies & My Lay bets - None contemplated
Tips
Added (Late result from yesterday) FRENCH VOGUE Dela (USA)/LOST
SHARP SALUTE 100 Arli (RSA)/LOST
MEADOW SKIPPIN Arli (USA)/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.20)]
Win tips to hand are
SAFE INVESTMENT 320 Ling. F/c 2/1 - Strong/2nd
HOUSE ARREST 300 Leic. F/c 12/1 - 1/3rd in strength/LOST
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL -1]
PROSPECTS
WORLDLY loses by, say, a neck and, on the day, I belly-flop (if no weighty Tip/s comes in and wins).
I've reverted to "FS" and "Supplementary" bets (Row 2), albeit in Token form, and I feel much happier for it. Remains to be seen if this move proves wise or unwise.
I didn't go ahead with the 2nd half of the Sequential Double (Shumookh) which proved a fortunate omission
OVERALL +17 (including BASIC PLAN +11)
Good luck! I am, yours truly,
The Totopoly Kid
Results of bets for Tue 29 Aug 2006
Day149Month5Week4.7+1
Phase 06B Day29
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 4.7+2 (Day150):
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -133 @average -c5/day ... including BASIC PLAN Phase 06B gain = +27 @average +c1/day
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) closing deficit (frozen) @ -2656 ... including BASIC PLAN (frozen) @ -366
Gaindays in Phase 06A:
11 Overall from 29 betdays in Apr [-957]; 15 from 31 in May [-174]; 15 from 30 in June [+408]; 15 from 31 in Jul [-1938]
Gaindays in Phase 06B:
13 Overall (12 Basic Plan) from 29 betdays in Aug.
Supplementary (a mistake): BALLITO/2ND (clicked instead of Assumetheposition/NON RUN OVERALL EVEN [-0.10]
Naps I - No selection
Naps II
Ripo: SPARKLING EYES(Double stake)/2ND/WINNING SPIRIT/LOST
Sedg: FIRST CRY/WON
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.22]
Place Only I
Sedg: FIRST CRY/Won
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (tiny win) BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.35]
Place Only II
Ripo: SPARKLING EYES/2ND
Bet: Basic BASIC PLAN +1
Fancies & My Lay bets - None contemplated
Tips
Added (from punterslounge.com/Ralphie7): ASSUMETHEPOSITION 330 Sedg. F/c 4/1/NON RUN
ZULU QUEEN 340 Tral. F/c 27/10/LOST
RESTORATION 410 Tral. F/c 28/5/WON [OVERALL EVEN (+0.45]
Added (from Racing Post): FRENCH VOGUE R7 Dela. F/c 12/1/Late result - see tomorrow
The Lay tips to hand from one source are
INSIDE STORY 220 Ripo. My Target Liability=22/HRS WON
SPARKLING EYES 250 Ripo/2nd No bet. Its support is significant enough in Racing Post's Selection Box to put me off. (However, Newmarket - often right in his 'minority' votes - also does not think it will win. He was right but, this time, his selection lost, too) [OVERALL -22]
I have to hand a Lay tip from another source: FIRST CRY 230 Sedg/Hrs won but I'll not chance this one. Support for it to win is too strong for my taste in the Selection Box. Correct decision, this time. [OVERALL N/A]
Win tips to hand are TABADUL 320 Ripo/NON RUN & WINNING SPIRIT 250 Ripo/Lost
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.10)]
PROSPECTS
Very little happening. Only the failure of the Lay bet(s) will damage.
OVERALL -20 (including BASIC PLAN +2)
Results of bets for Mon 28 Aug 2006
Day148Month5Week4.7
Phase 06B Day28
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 4.7 (Day149):
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) C/F deficit = -113 @average -c4/day ... including BASIC PLAN Phase 06B gain = +25 @average +c1/day
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) closing deficit (static) @ -2656 ... including BASIC PLAN (static) @ -366
Gaindays in Phase 06A:
11 Overall from 29 betdays in Apr [-957]; 15 from 31 in May [-174]; 15 from 30 in June [+408]; 15 from 31 in Jul [-1938]
Gaindays in Phase 06B:
13 Overall (11 Basic Plan) from 28 betdays in Aug.
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
350 Hunt. PREDATOR F/c 1/2 Min value odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat [+20%] 1.89 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.03 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.08 Halve stakes as the race is over obstacles/WON
Bets: Basic, Place Only, the 3 Combos (Total Combo capped @ 2/3rds of the computed stake), 'Token' (i.e., low start point in the 'stats adjusted' stakes computation) Remedial Supplementary (11th rung: to 10th using 1.6 as the multiplier per rung, 11th using 1.4) + Mop Up BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.17] plus OVERALL +18
Row 3
315 Hunt. PEARL KING F/c Evs Min val odds 1.89 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.55 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.69 Halve stakes as over obstacles/WON
440 Cart. PRIMUS INTER PARES F/c 8/13 Min val odds 1.39 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 3.00 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.28 Halve stakes as over obstacles/2ND
NOTEWORTHY: My stats suggest PRIMUS... for Row 1 but it is opposed in the Racing Post Selection Box by a F/c 14/1 shot and the 2nd Fav F/c @ 5/2. I take this as a hint not to go overboard. [Correct decision] (Normally I reject races with few runners when I see 2 horses cited in opposition to a possible candidate for qualification. But border-line Row 3 qualification seems just about fair, on balance.)
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.30]
Naps I
PEARL KING - see above/Won
Bets: Basic, Double (an enhancement of the Basic bet as there is no 2nd qualifier), Total Combo BASIC PLAN +1
Naps II
Chep: TOSLIN/2ND
Epso: ENFORCER/LOST
Ripo: AL QASI/WON
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.19]
Place Only I - on Rows 1&2 and
Chep: SNAKES HEAD/LOST
Epso: LOCH TAY/LOST
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (accum.) BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.11]
Place Only II
Cart: SUPER ROAD TRAIN/2ND/SILVER DAGGER/LOST
Hunt: BLUE TRAIN/LOST
Newc: PLANE PAINTER/NON RUN
Warw: BEVERLY HILL BILLY/WON BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.36]
Fancies
Chep: PERSIAN CONQUEROR/LOST - VEILED APPLAUSE/WON
Ripo: COUNTRY ESCAPE/LOST
Bets: Basic (Place Only) BASIC PLAN -2
My Lay Bets - None contemplated
Tips
Late result from yesterday: YANKEE INJUNUITY (USA)/LOST [OVERALL EVEN (-0.12)]
The Lay tip to hand is NORTHERN CHORUS F/c 5/1 Target Liability=21/HRS LOST [OVERALL +2]
The Win tip was COLLATERAL DAMAGE 335 Ripo/Unlucky 3RD
I went the 'stats adjusted' stakes route - tiny win and the bulk topped up, Place Only, to 10% of bank (@ the level fixed some 6 or so days ago) [OVERALL +32]
PROSPECTS
Out on a limb somewhat today. Having grown impatient with the absence of major single bets of late, and with PREDATOR/Won looking strong in its support, I decided to overlook that the race is a Beginners' Chase and take a chance on a new bet - the 'Token' Remedial Supplementary. Being an 11th rung bet it has still computed high (by recent standards) and it will hurt if it goes wrong.
Naps II departs from recent cautious policy by several degrees. I am gambling that Rows 2 & 3 runners, if successful, will pair up nicely with Naps II, if also successful, in the multiples.
It could all go drastically wrong, of course; ... and probably it will. It didn't except that I only broke even on Basic Plan - well, +0.13 (I'll call that a winning betday!) Actually, a couple of little things went wrong due to (a) Betfair being off-line so long and (b) my having to go out all afternoon. The bets in question, had they been fully enacted, would have produced a profit for Basic Plan by registering additional gains (Pearl King, Predator & Primus Inter Pares, the latter two just within Place Only)
OVERALL +52 (including BASIC PLAN EVEN)