Bets for Dec 31 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: +39 [within OVERALL: +39]
Holiday Mode applied
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night): No short list.
I am now in Phase 2007Ct - from Jan 1st I shall be in Phase 2008At
Summary Day 273 (wef 01/04/07) C/f to Jan 01 (Month10Wk1.1Day274Phase07AtDay01) - BASIC PLAN Phase 07Ct (begun 01/Dec/07) updated surplus = +164 (within BASIC PLAN surplus of +381 since 01/Jan/06), of which a surplus of +581* is implicit within 2007's OVERALL deficit of -15 pts ... to which I've reinstated (added back) -5554 Overall for all of 2005 (Jan-Dec), and -11022 likewise for all of 2006 = **(Recently re-titled) Global Target break-even figure = OVERALL deficit of -16594 pts. Ave. surplus of +c2/day* for Basic Plan over 357 days since 01/01/07; 20xWin days so far (including any no-bet days because discounting them would wrongly imply that they were 'Loss' days & because, note, 'Even' days count as 'Win' ones, here: "If I haven't lost, I must have won.") on Basic Plan in Dec, 22 in Nov, 20 in Oct, 22 in Sep, 17 in Aug, 16 in July, 17 in June, 15 in May;14 in April E&OE.
**Given that stake levels can be expected to go on mounting steadily, they should (barring unforseeable eventualities) bring the break-even point ever nearer and this at an ever accelerating rate. I lost Intermediary Scope during the 1st week of Dec - forseeable but, unfortunately, unforseen! - with the consequence that I can't bet much except with money already in my betting accounts, pretty much confined to Australia at present.
I am taking December off except for the Aussie tips, the Place Only III/Naps row (selectively) and anything obvious that throws up. (I am calling this "
I've decided to make my racing year run from January to November with December a transitional month - in
Row 2: Now (F)/25 pts: "Capped" Place bet Supplement on (Aust) DOONKDINK/2ND F/c 4/6; Now (P)/13: Ad hoc Win&Place bets on (Aust) FUNATHEFAIR/3RD, Ad Hoc Place bet on (UK) MOLLY ANN/2ND; Now (Z)/11 pts: Mistakes: Overbet on Win bet on FUNATHEFAIR/3rd [-2] Also: Fees [Nil], Accounting discrepancy [Nil] BASIC PLAN +5 [OVERALL EVEN (-0.35)]
Naps I/bet4place.com: Now (R)/12 pts: SUPER OOG/3RD F/c 4/5 - Bets: Basic Win+MopUp/Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN +2
Place Only III/bet4place.com: Now (QA)22 pts: 6 tips - 5PL (incl. 1W)1L 0Nr - Bets: Basic place Only BASIC PLAN +33
GLOSSARY ON THE PHILOSOPHY (due for update on Jan 01, 2008)
AMD: an "alphabetical monitoring device" for non-level stakes betting. If the metaphorical 'dial' on Row 2 (formerly Supplementries i.e., when they were accounted within Overall but outside Basic Plan) 'reads' "ZH," the next day's gain, in this bet category, would take it to "ZG," or, if a day's loss, to "ZI" i.e., it rises up the alphabet with a day's Row 2 loss and falls back following a day's win. Having reaching "ZA, then "Z" (i.e., at this point the 'A' is dropped - of course, only after a gain), then on from "Z" to, finally, "A" (the aim) which, once achieved, will have squared off the Row 2 account as regards gain v. loss days from when the sequence had begun. Why express it this way? Well, it has the same advantages that you get with algebra. I used to get lost when only using figures if, for example, banks were artifically adjusted (up and/or down) several times.
[To illustrate: at a glance, the sequence on the then Supplementaries was at its worst on 26th April, 2006 @ "ZW." I had brought it 'down' to "ZC" by 10th September, 2006. For Row 2, at last, the account has just been squared off - anyway, as regards Gain v. Loss days.]
Note: This device has come more into its own recently. I am now using the device to set a separate Base Stake for each one of my main bet categories. I kicked off with an increment of 1pt per single move up or down the alphabet but soon changed this to a 1 point change for every 5 letters of improvement/deterioration, assessed daily. Deterioration from the start point. however, I change per 3 letters i.e., Base stake of 10 pts at A, changed to 9 at D, to 8 at G etc.
In my blog diary I now indicate the AMD status of each of my main bet categories. The figure alongside the reading indicates what the current Base stake is. Note that the Base stake is the start-point of calculations made to arrive at the actual stake bet by bet (which, of course, can be rather more or, more often, rather less than the Base stake; I seriously consider capping the bet at the Base Stake level, however, if the indicated stake is more). The policy is now to Cap (ordinarily*) when the stakes adjustment calculation exceeds twice the Base Stake. *But at present I am betting at Token levels (except on Aussie races), unless the adjusted stake computes small already.
A major weakness does still remain in that the device inherently ignores the monetary side. If I lose high and win low (a common eventuality), this does not reflect appropriately in the reading: an increment of one letter up the alphabet for the former case, down one for the latter is, clearly, inadequate. Nevertheless, I am finding the device useful.
-/A [suffix]: For when a bet has had to be repeated with an error corrected. Refers to the original wrong bet. Accounted within "OVERALL."
123 COMBO: Multiple bet consisting of runners from Rows 1, 2 & 3 in, usually, EWDoubles if the odds allow (otherwise Win Doubles), plus an EWAccumulator (or equivalent i.e., Single, Double or Treble) If the stats look especially strong, I might add EWTrebles.
2X2: Pair of selections from two races in the hope of picking up one extra good Double from the four runners. [Currently out of favour.]
3x3x3: Three selections from each of three races in the hope of picking up one extra good Treble (rare - more usually done as a 2x2x2). [Currently out of favour.]
4321 SINGLE: Win bet on a runner that has finished 1, 2, 3 & 4 within its previous six races.
BANKS: I record losses and gains on most bet categories but, currently, they serve only to indicate how the finances are faring. They are not used to set stake levels. Previously, they did do. When I did use them, my policy on banks that were in deficit resulted in a situation whereby, as the deficits approached zero (i.e., improved), the stake sizes actually reduced. The hope was that bet sizes would increase as the banks left zero balances behind and moved into growing credit. Resolutely, I resisted the temptation to bump them up, so to say artificially, in a good period. I allowed myself, in this way, to suffer extendedly, as a caution to husband my betting from these banks to better effect in the future such that I wouldn't have again to endure the torture of doing well, results-wise, on miserably tiny stakes. This was a good discipline and served me well phsychologically, though it worked against me financially, being too slow in responding to better recent performances. (My AMD device has replaced banks as my principal indicator on Base stake sizes.)
BASE STAKE: The start point for stats-adjustment of stakes, a separate one for each bet category.
BASIC PLAN: Bet types I depend on (after having been tested and proven within OVERALL).
BASIC: Stats-adjusted single bet.
CAPPED: E.g., when multiple bets consist of 4-8 runners inclusive, I slice 1/3rd off the computed stake; when more than 8, 2/3rds, etc. [Fewer runners than these is more usual.] I also CAP other bets at any time for any reason.
COMBO: Bet that includes runners from more than one "ROW." Notional stake contributions are calculated per runner exactly as on single bets but the stake to be committed is arrived at by totalling the contributions, averaging, and adjusting for, usually, Doubles (half), sometimes Trebles (1/3rd) if the runners are extra strong & an Accumulator (or equivalent i.e., Single sometimes, or Double or Treble).
CONSENSUS FAVOURITE: The most popular selection in the Racing Post’s Selection Box.
DELTA QUADRANT: Borrowed from Star Trek as my name for when I cannot freely ‘go with my numbers’ having lost SCOPE. Currently, I find myself back in the Delta Quadrant, unfortunately, except as regards Aussie racing (whilst I retain enough in my Aussie account).
FLAT (e.g., "FLAT BASIC"): A stake that is at its BASE level i.e., non-adjusted.
FS: A supplement to a "BASIC" bet in Row 2 added when my stats look extra favourable (though I take liberties with this @ token or capped levels). Note: The letters FS originate from "Fibonacci Series," a loss recovery staking system that I experimented with some time ago but have discontinued except in a severely diluted form - see 'Remedial Supplementaries' within the entry on "SUPPLEMENTARIES."
INFILTRATION: See under "NAPS."
LateXtra/1 COMBO: If a runner in the "XTRA COMBO" fails to win, I usually re-back the remaining runners in a further Accumulator. (".../1" would be the 1st of these.) Though the runners reduce in number, usually I commit the same stake as per the Xtra Combo (though I will de-cap capped levels if indicated by the reduction in the number of runners involved in the LateXtra/- Combo bet/s).
"LAURA LUCK" days: When clear "CONSENSUS FAVOURITES" are thin on the ground and, generally, a 'lorra' (lot of) luck may to be needed to achieve a profit.
MAJORITY STAT: I make a note of the size of tipster majority that qualifiers enjoyed in the Racing Post Selection Boxes over the second most favoured runners. (9 or more, with certain reservations, has proved significantly more reliable as a guide to likely winners than 8 and less.) Note: I maintain a different set of Majority stats for Sundays because fewer Press Corps tipsters contribute selections on that day of the week.
MISTAKES: Accounted under "OVERALL" (as quasi-Supplementaries) unless they are tied-in elsewhere in my accounts due to some complicating factor.
MY LAY BETS: Experimentally, I confined myself to races with 6 runners F/c @ under 14/1 of which 5 are F/c @ under 8/1 - accounted under "OVERALL." But I have learnt to restict lay bets to when my cash flow position is excellent. [Currently out of favour.]
MOP UP: Place Only bets made along with win bets to help nudge returns up a point or two towards profit/extra profit (or mitigate slightly against loss) by the end of an accounting period. Note: Success depends, of course, on a favourable Place Only strike rate. Sometimes, I do a Win MopUp, typically if I have missed a Place bet or failed to get one matched. A good proportion of these win; so I regard the step as fairly 'safe.' However, this win bet is rare now that Betfair have introduced Place Only betting in running
NAPS: I follow the tips of 8/9 tipsters from the Naps Table. If 2 of these tips coincide I also back it in Naps II (or in Naps I if 3 or more tips coincide) to attract Win bets as well as additional Place Only ones. Previously, Naps that were already qualifiers elsewhere in BASIC PLAN were considered for
Additionally, from the tipsters in the Selection Boxes, I sometimes "INFILTRATE" Naps/NBs into Row 3 (also other popular Naps Table selections, occasionally).
NEW ODDS STAT: This stat is restricted to Rows 1 & 2 qualifiers and has two elements:
(1) A record of qualifiers' results according to (a) which Row they were put into and (b) the number of runners F/c @ under 14/1 that were forecast to be competing; and
(2) a stat (that I call "General") which combines the results of the two Rows into one total for each size of field F/c @ under 14/1.
I use (1) as part of the process of computing the adjusted stakes for "BASIC" bets for Rows 1 & 2.
Officially I use (2) (the General stat) for 'add on' bets like "STAR," "FS," "REMEDIAL SUPPLEMENTARY" and also for "ROW 3" & "PLACE ONLY" but lately I have been ignoring the distinction and applying the General stat to all relevant bets. These are stats-adjusted in other respects exactly as all bets (except, obviously, Singles within Rows 1 & 2). Stats that record outcomes for Rows 1 and 2 qualifiers separately are confined to the New Odds stat at present. Note: Having built up a body of data, I update it, now, on results experienced solely within Rows 1 & 2. (If you overdo data collection, I feel, a danger exists that your results dumb down in usefulness, become 'bland,' such as proving conclusively that the oft quoted 'stat' that "1 in 3 favourites wins" is indeed, well-what-do-you-know?, true.)
ODDS CONFIGURATION STAT: My present standard for this stat is "the number of runners F/c @ under 8/1 and those F/c @ 8/1 or above but under 14/1," a separate stat for each configuration e.g., one category, alternatively expressed, is "4 runners F/c @ under 14/1 of which 3 are F/c @ under 8/1." This stat shows the number of wins and losses which past qualifiers for, solely, Rows 1 & 2 experienced in races with the same F/c "ODDS CONFIGURATION." It is used, along with 2 other stat categories, plus the F/c odds ['odds-on' reversed, now, such that the skinnier the odds-on price, the smaller the stake computes to (I used to treat all odds-on prices notionally as Evens. Now, the final stake on an Odds On shot will be at its highest in amount at just under Evens.)], plus the number of runners F/c @ under 8/1, to adjust the relevant "BASE STAKE" for the bet category to arrive at the stake to actually commit.
SCOPE: Freedom to 'go with my numbers' on stats-adjusted stakes. INTERMEDIARY SCOPE enables me to bet 'according to my numbers' fairly freely but Capping some bets.
SEQUENTIALS: When there are few qualifiers/selections in a multiple [Doubles usually], I often proceed singly, committing gains only after the first bet (but repeating the bet if the 1st one loses). I don't do "Sequentials" when races are due off close together in time or if the stakes are very modest in size.
SHORT-LIST COMBO: Win multiple including all the runners in my short-list. Accounted under "Overall." [Currently out of favour.]
SHORT-LIST (Place Only) COMBO: A misnomer in that it isn't a multiple. Consists of enhancements, really, of existing Place Only I single bets.
STAR: A supplement to the Basic Bet in Row 1 but sometimes on its own instead of the Basic Bet. Accounted within BASIC PLAN.
SUNDAY MODE: Major stake levels halved because the information from which qualifiers are identified is less complete on Sundays. Rarely applied currently.
SUPPLEMENTARIES: Additions to BASIC bets including staged REMEDIAL SUPPLEMENTARIES (up to 10 rungs of a remedial ladder, applying an escalation factor per rung of 1.4) intended to recover a percentage of past losses. A winning 10th rung bet is followed by a 9th rung one. If the 9th rung bet loses, I am back at the 10th rung, and so on. Restricted to Row 3 qualifiers. If I extend beyond 10 rungs, I reduce the escalation factor. As the Supplementaries are stats-adjusted, it follows that the stakes do not rise/fall uniformly through the ladder rungs; differences, rung to rung, can be considerable.
SUPPORT: The weight of opinion in a runner's favour (Naps/NBs, usually) gleaned from a Racing Post Selection Boxes. "GENERAL" SUPPORT means the Naps Table as a whole.
TOKEN: Standard bet using a much-lower-than-standard level of stake.
TOTAL COMBO: Multiple consisting of all runners in Rows 1,2 & 3, Naps I,II&, rarely, Place Only III/Naps, usually EWDoubles plus an Accumulator. If my stats look especially encouraging, I might add EWTrebles. Much more likely to be placed without Place Only III/Naps inclusions, in which case I call it a DIMINISHED TOTAL COMBO.
XTRA (adjustments): As per "LateXtra."
XTRA COMBO: Multiple consisting of runners in Place Only I. An Accumulator, EW whenever possible (or, when dubious re the odds, @ SPs if in significant doubt as to how the odds will pan out).
Near-qualifiers for Rows 1-3 for Naps II. But I found the Naps reliable enough for Place Only bets and now automatically do win bets only when I promote same selections by two or more tipsters as stated.