2006-Oct-26
Diary for Oct 27 2006
Day208Month7Week4.6 (Phase 06B Day88)
OUTCOME: With only 1 winner from 4 in my main short-list, I have to be happy going down only 6 points in Basic Plan OVERALL -10 points (including BASIC PLAN -6)
PROSPECTS (AS THEY SEEMED THE NIGHT BEFORE)
I've short-listed 3 "medium" & 1 "medium-strong" consensus favs today. My stats are wholly encouraging only about MISS LUCIFER/WON. However, she is opposed by Newmarket, who so often gets these things right. I've located her in my "Row 3" - where she joins DREAM SCHEME/2ND, about whom my stats suggest 50/50 (and worse) as its chance.
The others in my short-list, DAN'S MAN/PU & NEYSAUTEUR/3RD, are in "Place Only I."
My stats on these, and other, runners are not all that bad; just degrees short of confidence inspiring. The day could end brilliantly but my gut feeling is that fav. backing today may well glean but mixed results, maybe more disappointments than not, despite quite a number of short-priced chances. Today's situation is one in which I prefer to rely on multiple bets.
Looks to be an interesting day, though. Can't wait!
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Oct Week 4.7 Day 209 (Phase B: Day 89)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -91 points @ an average of -c1/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) surplus = +157 points @ an average of +c2/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: overall 15 (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201]; Oct: 14 (14) [+215]
PLUS B/F OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2): Supplementary Short-List Combo, Mistakes: Initially I backed Percusionist/HRS WON to win instead of to Lay by mistake - really stupid; then I didn't get the corrective lay right & it cost me extra loss, Unexplained Discrepancy, if any [Negligible]
The S/L Combo did today's main damage. Simply, it cost an overall gain OVERALL -19
Row 3
130 Newm. MISS LUCIFER/Won F/c Evs Min value odds, according to my 'odds configuration' stat, + 20% = 1.84 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.58 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.27
350 Newm. DREAM SCHEME/2nd F/c Evs Min val odds + 20% = 2.30 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.94 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.71 (Included mainly because of 2xSelection Box Naps)
Bets: Place Only, Sequential 123 & Total Combos, Xtra Combos BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only I - Row 3 and
Utto: DAN'S MAN/pu when beaten - NEYSAUTEUR/3rd
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN -3
Place Only II
Newm: PRINCESS VALERINA/WON/SHEVCHENKO/3RD - MAROZI/2ND
Utto: ODAL D'AIRY/LOST/NEW TEAM/WON
Weth: DOUBLE ELLS/LOST - SHOW ME THE RIVER/2ND - WHY THE BIG PAWS/LOST - TIDAL BAY/WON/FOREST GREEN/3RD
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -7
Naps I
Newm: MISS LUCIFER/Won - DREAM SCHEME/2nd - see above
Bets: Basic (Triple stake on Miss Lucifer), Sequential Double, 2-Row Sequential Double (normally with Row 1 but today an enhancement of the existing Double), Sequential Total Combo BASIC PLAN +3
Naps II - No selection
Fancies
Newm: LA PRESSE/2ND
Bet: Tiny win
Newm: PRINCESS VALERINA/Won/SHEVCHENKO/3rd
Utto: ODAL D'AIRY/Lost/NEW TEAM/Won
Weth: TIDAL BAY/Won/FOREST GREEN/3rd
Bets: 2x2EWDoubles, 3x3EWTrebles OVERALL +5
My Lay bets - None
Tips
ON THE THROTTLE F/c 5/1 815 Keen(USA/WON - from yesterday (the bad run ended finally!)
No.8 RHAPSODYBOHEMIAN F/c 2/1 715 Keen(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL +2]
Major Lay tip today is PERCUSSIONIST/Hrs won F/c 2/1
Support a bit stronger than I like to see, and a non-runner to make its chance of winning greater - but @ a small stake I take the chance
Bet: Target liability 7 points [OVERALL -7]
Main Win tip is ON THE MONEY/3RD F/c 5/1 425 Newm.
No less than 6 tipped up rivals, including Naps. Odds now a little less than 3-1 and falling. Who knows.
Bet: Tiny win, the balance Place Only - to a grand total of 30 points
50% of stake gain seems rather a good result [OVERALL +15]
Good word to hand on WANNABE POSH/2ND (Newm) - IRISH RAPTOR/UR when going well (Weth)
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.20)]
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