27th August 2006
Results of Bets for Sun 27 Aug 2006
Day147Month5Week4.6S (Sunday Mode applied on non-tip major bets only)
Phase 06B Day27
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 4.7 (Day148):
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) B/F deficit = -165 @average -c6/day ... including BASIC PLAN Phase 06B gain = +25 @average +c1/day
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) closing deficit = -2656 ... including BASIC PLAN -366
Gaindays in Phase 06A:
11 Overall from 29 betdays in Apr [-957]; 15 from 31 in May [-174]; 15 from 30 in June [+408]; 15 from 31 in Jul [-1938]
Gaindays in Phase 06B:
12 Overall (10 Basic Plan) from 27 betdays in Aug.
Rows 1&2 - No qualifier
Row 3
220 Yarm. LEOPARD KING F/c 8/13 Min value odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat [+20%] 2.77 New odds stat stakes reducer x 0.94 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.67/WON
230 Beve. LA SPEZIA F/c 9/4 Included due to support in the RP Selection Box (2xNaps)/2ND
Bets: Place Only I for Leopard King, Place Only II for La Spezia, 123 & Total Combos, Xtra Combo (EWDouble including Leopard King only) BASIC PLAN -1
Naps I - No selection
Naps II
LEOPARD KING - see above/Won
GEORGE WASHINGTON (Triple stake) 335 Good. F/c 8/11/LOST
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only I - on Row 3 (Leopard King/Won) and
Yarm: EL ALAMEIN/NON RUN
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.23]
Place Only II - on Row 3 (La Spezia/2nd) and all, or from,
Beve: FORMAL DECREE/LOST
Good: GEORGE WASHINGTON/Lost
Yarm: HURRY UP HELEN/WON
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -1
Fancies/My Lay bets - None contemplated
Tips
Late result yesterday: ROYAL DAZZLE (USA)/DID NOT WIN
WEST END BOY 150 Clai. Recent price 7/1 & drifting/LOST
YANKEE INJUNUITY Race 3 Arli/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.21)]
The Lay tips to hand are
CHINA CHERUB 455 Good. F/c 11/4 My Target Liability=23/HRS LOST
CHORISTAR 515 Beve. F/c 15/8 TL=13/HRS WON
I was uneasy about this one all day [OVERALL -6]
The Win tip to hand is TAX FREE 335 Beve. F/c 3/1/LOST(4th)
Bet: I have gone the 'stats adjusted' stake route: small win + Place Only top up, to total of 5% of bank [Correct decision as not 10%](at the level fixed 5 bets or so ago) [OVERALL -23]
PROSPECTS
Yesterday my stats let me down, in a way, in that they threw up negatives that were not born out by the results. I'd have done much better if I had ignored those pesky negs.
On a smaller scale, it could turn out to be the same story again today. So it proved. I short listed 4: 2 won, 1 placed and 1 was a non-runner, yet I ended up with a light losing day on Basic Plan
NOTEWORTHY: The stats are there to help me avoid over-large win bets in 'historically' dodgy races. That is what the Basic Plan does. Take my stats for LEOPARD KING/Won today: Odds config. 59W87L (good but not terrific) - my other stats 15W9L (for Sundays only - approaching excellent) & 47W50L (50/50-ish). I think it will win but I have it in Row 3. The right Row? Thus, no single (except Place Only), and the hope it wins as well as e.g., LA SPEZIA/2nd in which case I have myself a winning 123 Combo. If not, small loss.
OVERALL -32 (including BASIC PLAN -2)
Results of bets for Sat 26 Aug 2006
Day146Month5Week4.5
Phase 06B Day26
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 4.6 (Day147):
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) closing deficit = -2656 ... including BASIC PLAN -366
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) B/F deficit = -133 @average -c5/day ... including BASIC PLAN Phase 06B gain = +27 @average +c1/day
Phase 06A:
11 gaindays overall from 29 betdays in Apr [-957]; 15 from 31 in May [-174]; 15 from 30 in June [+408]; 15 from 31 in Jul [-1938]
Phase 06B:
12 gaindays from 26 betdays in Aug.
Rows 1&2 - No qualifier
Row 3
215 Ches. RAVI RIVER F/c Evs Min value odds according to my 'odds configuration' stats (+20%) 2.13 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.32 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.64/WON
240 NewtA. ORION EXPRESS F/c 11/8 Min val odds 1.89 New odds stat stakes 1.55 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.79 Halve stakes as the race is over obstacles/NON RUN
620 MarkR. IS IT ME F/c 1/3 Min val odds 1.60 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.32 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.79 Halve stakes as over obstacles/WON
Bets: Place Only [Row 3 1/2 share of bet on Ravi River not matched], "123," "Total" and "Xtra" Combos Added: Tiny win bet on Ravi River BASIC PLAN +8
Naps I and II - No selection
Place Only I - on Row 3 and all, or from,
Ches: GOLD SPIRIT/WON (Stake refunded - 4 ran)
NewmJ: HIGHLAND BLAZE/WON
Sand: MOON VALLEY/3RD
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (accum. capped to 2/3rds stake as over 5 runners) BASIC PLAN +4
Place Only II - on all, or from,
Ches: MINOS/WON
MarkR: BARILOCHE/FELL beaten
NewtA: DAMARISCO/FELL likely to place - CREAM CRACKER/2ND - VINTAGE FABRIC/WON (Stake refunded - 4 ran)
Sand: MOON VALLEY/3rd/INDICATION/2ND
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.26]
Fancies/My Lay bets - None contemplated
Tips
Added: Late result yesterday: SUMTHINGTOTALKABT (USA)/WON [OVERALL EVEN (+0.18)]
The Lay tips to hand are
RIFF RAFF 435 Ches. F/c 3/1 Newmarket's selection to win. Therefore I shall not Lay this selection myself [Wrong decision, this time]/HRS LOST - No bet
FIELDS OF CLOVER 455 NewtA. My Target Liability 18 (I have increased the Base Stake as of today by 1/4)/PU beaten [OVERALL +4]
The Win tip to hand is BOOK OF MUSIC 400 Ches. F/c 4/1 Significantly opposed in the RP Selection Box (by 3xNaps, 1xNB), however/LOST
Bet: I have gone the 'stats adjusted stakes' route again: small win, the balance Place Only to the present standard stake (that I set at 10% of the most recent most favourable bank position applicable to these bets) In view of the strong Nap support for New Guinea, on reflection, I should have halved the bet. (Ironically, due to the Naps, the latter was added to my original Row 3 list but I deleted it.) [OVERALL -47]
PROSPECTS
Negatives riddle my stats on today's races, the reasonable mixed in with the indifferent, muddying the waters. I have tried to be careful but am wholly unconfident about my qualifiers. Without a doubt I have excluded runners that go on to win; can't be helped.
I hope for the best. Of my original short-list, 8 won, 2 placed and 1 was a non-runner. It is always a touch shocking when, on such a day, your professional tipster service comes up with a loser!
My single bets are all Place Only; not much risked. It's yet another 'Laura Luck' day, perhaps. Easy to lose money on a day like today, being careful or not, I'd say.
OVERALL -31 (including BASIC PLAN +12)