2006-Oct-25
Diary for Oct 26 2006
Day207Month7Week4.5 (Phase 06B Day87)
OUTCOME: Once again I'm pleased to have achieved a small profit under Basic Plan. Unfortunately, the main TIP scuppered me today. OVERALL -32 points (including BASIC PLAN +3)
PROSPECTS (AS THEY'D SEEMED NIGHT BEFORE)
3 medium strength "consensus favs" in my main short-list. My stats are un-encouraging, though, so I've located ONCE A BROWNIE/2ND just in "Row 3," CABINET/WON in "Place Only I," and YES MY LORD/2ND in "Place Only II." Otherwise, it looks another 'trappy' day to me - I shall need "Laura Luck" on my side. But, very little is at stake (major win tip, relatively, excepted). Went pretty much as I expected.
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Oct Week 4.6 Day 208 (Phase B: Day 88)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -81 points @ an average of -c1/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) surplus = +163 points @ an average of +c2/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: overall 15 (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201]; Oct: 14 (14) [+225]
PLUS B/F OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bets: Supplementary Short-List Combo (Sequential Treble), Mistakes: (1) Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Up on Cabinet/Won (a mix up over Betfair settings which made the legit bet invisible on the page making me think it had been cancelled unmatched), (2) EWDouble on ROYAL OATH/LOST/YES MY LORD/2nd (accidentally backed instead of Weet A Head/The Howardian - see below), Unexplained Discrepancy, if any [-0.06] OVERALL EVEN [-0.22]
Row 3
500 Stra. ONCE A BROWNIE/2nd F/c 4/5 Min value odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat + 20% = 2.77 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.94 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.68
Bets: Place Only, 123 Combo (Win bet), Sequential Total & Xtra Combos BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.23]
Place Only I - Row 3 and
Ling: CABINET/Won
Bets: Basic, Sequential Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II
Ling: ROYAL OATH/LOST
Stra: DON'T PUSH IT/WON - YES MY LORD/2nd
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -1
Naps I
Ling: CABINET/Won F/c 11/10
Bets: Basic (Double stake), 'Double' (no 2nd selection, therefore an enhancement of the Win single), 2-Row 'Double' (normally with Row 1 but today as per the Double), Sequential Total Combo BASIC PLAN +3
Naps II
Stra: DON'T PUSH IT/Won F/c 9/4
Bets: Sequential Total Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.01]
Fancies
Stra: WEET A HEAD/LOST - THE HOWARDIAN/2ND (Not involved in any bet)
Bet: Multi Fancy (EWDouble) - No bet in error - see Mistakes (Row 2)
Ling: ROYAL OATH/EASY AIR/BOTH LOST
Taun: AMANPURI/3RD/LOVE OF CLASSICS/LOST
Bets: 2x2EWDoubles OVERALL -1
My Lay bets - None
Tips
POOLETTA F/c 3/1 915 Keen(USA/2ND - Late result from yesterday (the bad run still continues, increasingly discouragingly)
No.3 ON THE THROTTLE F/c 5/1 815 Keen(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
I'll continue with the experiment. (You have to give free tipster services, indeed any tipster service, a long enough run to have some chance of arriving at a fair appreciation of its quality. The best of them can suffer a bad run from time to time.)
NUNEZ SP 200 Long(FR/LOST
Bets: Tiny win (Significant-small bet on Nunez - EW, due to lack of info) [OVERALL -4]
No Major Lay tip today [OVERALL N/A]
The Major Win tip is EASY AIR/Lost 450 Ling.
I am apprehensive because this runner is in a race with one of *my least favourable stats - the New Odds one (*22W43L: 6 runners F/c under 14/1). I am taking a chance. It is Newmarket's Nap, a strong positive; but opposed by no less than 3 Naps, a *huge negative, (favouring ROYAL OATH - in just the RP Selection Box, I mean).
Bets: *8 points Win, 22 points Place Only.
*Paradoxically, the way I adjust the Base Stake to commit on selections that are not in my main short-list, the chancier my stats make them appear, the higher, in this Row, the Win bet element of the final stake becomes. There's a technical reason. But method's in my madness, I argue (to anyone who'll listen)! [OVERALL -30]
No good word(s) to hand [OVERALL N/A]
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