2007-Dec-3
Bets for Dec 03 2007
Holiday Mode semi-applied
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night): Short list readily found: DUNDRIDGE NATIVE/WON (Row 3) & ZENNERMAN/2ND (Place Only I). My stats are excellent for the former, 50/50 for the latter, though fairly good on that's (lower priority) Majority stat (99W57L) - not that my stats guarantee anything. I can't easily bet today in the UK, as per yesterday, but token level bets I will try to manage as it looks like it could prove profitable (just so long as there are no major reverses - which could very well occur all too easily). There were no major reverses; so I was right: it was a profitable day.
I'm not looking for peripherals currently but COOL ROXY/2ND (Misc. Cards) readily threw up.
I am now in Phase 2007Ct:
Summary Day 245 (wef 01/04/07) C/f to Dec 4 (Month09Wk1.4Day256Phase07CtDay04) - BASIC PLAN Phase 07Ct (begun 01/Dec/07) updated surplus = +192 (within BASIC PLAN surplus of +369 since 01/Jan/06), of which a surplus of +609* is implicit within 2007's OVERALL surplus of +50 pts ... to which I've reinstated (added back) -5554 Overall for all of 2005 (Jan-Dec), and -11022 likewise for all of 2006 = **Provisional pre-Write-Off global figure = OVERALL deficit of -16529 pts. Ave. surplus of +c2/day* for Basic Plan over 330 days since 01/01/07; 3 x Win days so far (including any no-bet days because discounting them would wrongly imply that they were 'Loss' days & because, note, 'Even' days count as 'Win' ones, here: "If I haven't lost, I must have won.") on Basic Plan in Dec, 22 in Nov, 20 in Oct, 22 in Sep, 17 in Aug, 16 in July, 17 in June, 15 in May;14 in April E&OE.
**Note: I believe I have allowed enough time to establish that another important corner has been turned. Whilst the Overall deficit continues to seem clearable at a rate of knots, further thoughts of effecting a "write off" can be postponed perhaps indefinitely. Given that stake levels can be expected to go on mounting steadily, they should (barring unforseeable eventualities) bring the break-even point ever nearer and this at an ever accelerating rate.
I am taking December off except for the Aussie tips, the Place Only III/Naps row and anything obvious that throws up. (I am calling this "Holiday Mode.") I'll be updating this Blog in December off and on, but will resume, health permitting, its daily production as a routine at the beginning of January.
I've decided to make my racing year run from January to November with December a transitional month - in Holiday Mode - preparing for the following year. But I am thinking of making January a transitional month, too, given that it may well include changes from the previous main Phase (which will need road testing.)
Combos I: Now (P)/13 pts: Xtra (EWDouble/Broke even)+No LateXtra+MopUps; Now I/8 pts: Half share of Diminished Total (EWDouble/WON)+No Xtra+No MopUps(overlooked) BASIC PLAN +4
Row 2: Now (T)/22 pts: Capped Win/Place Supplements incl Top Ups (Located here, for convenience) on (Aust) AUTHORATIVE/3RD F/c 11/10 & BE PACIFIC/WON F/c 11/10; (UK) DESERT QUEST/WON,token bet F/c 2/5/SPACE COWBOY/2ND,no bet F/c 11/4; Mistake/s: Now M/6 pts: Missed winning token Place bet on POCKET ACES/WON [Minor disadvantage]. Also: Fees [Nil], Accounting discrepancy [Nil] BASIC PLAN +13 [plus OVERALL EVEN]
Note: I am now Capping my stats-adjusted stakes at double their Base Stake level. Then the Supplement trips in on top if indicated.
Row 3: Now (YA)/21 pts: DUNDRIDGE NATIVE/Won F/c 1/2 - Bets: Token Basic Place Only + Now (R)/12 pts: Basic Remedial Supplementary (Technically, at Base rung) Win+Token MopUp BASIC PLAN +6
Place Only I: Now (R)/42 pts; & Short-list 'Combo:' Now (Z)/41 pts: DUNDRIDGE NATIVE/Won F/c 1/2, ZENNERMAN/2nd F/c 6/4 - Bets: Token Basic BASIC PLAN +7
Place Only II: Now (F)/35 pts: DESERT QUEST/Won,token bet F/c 2/5/SPACE COWBOY/2nd,no bet F/c 11/4 - Bets: Basic, both Capped BASIC PLAN +1
Miscellaneous Cards: Now (YA)/21 pts: COOL ROXY/2nd,reduced stake level F/c 8/11 - Bets: Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN +7
Combos II: Half share of Diminished Total - see Combo I BASIC PLAN +4
Naps II: Now (A)/20 pts: POCKET ACES/Won,place bet missed F/c 3/1 - Bets (Double stakes): Basic Win+No MopUp/No Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN +1
Naps II/bet4place.com: Now (F)/15 pts: AUTHORATIVE/3rd F/c 11/10 - Bets: Basic Win+MopUp/Basic Place Only Using my UK race stats only BASIC PLAN +6
Place Only III/bet4place.com: Now (B)/15 - 4 tips - 4Pl (incl 2W)0L 0Nr - Basic incl. 1 Capped, 1 Topped up BASIC PLAN +30
Place Only III/HOOF: Now (X)/11 pts: 5 picks - 5PL(incl 3W)0L 0Nr - Bets: Token Basic BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only III/Naps (in mostly Naps Table order): Now (N)/33 pts: COLLINE DE FLEUR/2ND,token bet F/c 4/6, BUCKLAND GOLD/3RD F/c 3/1, POCKET ACES/Won,missed (Double stakes) F/c 3/1, COOL ROXY/2nd,reduced bet F/c 8/11, DESERT QUEST/Won,token bet F/c 2/5, SILVER PRELUDE/NO RUN F/c 7/2 - Bets: Basic, Capped on Desert Q BASIC PLAN +19
A) Miscellaneous Tips
(ii) International Zone: C/10 pts: (RSA) No tip - Bet: Basic Win+MopUp [OVERALL N/A]
MY GLOSSARY ON THE PHILOSOPHY (recently semi-updated)
AMD: an "alphabetical monitoring device" for non-level stakes betting. ... [To illustrate: at a glance, the sequence on the then Supplementaries was at its worst on 26th April, 2006 @ "ZW." I had brought it 'down' to "ZC" by 10th September, 2006. For Row 2 (fairly recently changed from "Supplementaries"), it now stands updated at "L".
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