The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Wed Oct 25 2006
Day206Month7Week4.4 (Phase 06B Day86)

OUTCOME: Pleased to have made a small Basic Plan profit    OVERALL -5 points (including BASIC PLAN +5)
PREDICTED PROSPECTS
One weak "consensus fav" (ARMARIVER/3RD) in my main short-list. My stats are un-encouraging, though, so I've located it in "Place Only I." Correct decision. Otherwise, the day looks 'trappy' to me - another "Laura Luck" day, despite the fair number of F/c short priced favourites on offer potentially. I am hoping I have selected enough successful ones from these in my "Fancies" Row. If it turns out I have, then that Row should do disproportionally well from a tiny stake. Only 1 winner. Didn't work out, partly unluckily
Very little at risk (aside from the Lay tip bet, relatively).

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Oct Week 4.5 Day 207 (Phase B: Day 87)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -49 points @ an average of  -c1/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) surplus = +160 points @ an average of +c2/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: overall 15 (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201];  Oct: 14 (13) [+257]
PLUS B/F OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]

Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bets: Supplementary Short-List Combo (Win bet), Mistakes, Unexplained Discrepancy, if any [+0.03]     OVERALL -7

Row 3
ARMARIVER/3rd F/c 11/4 430 Chel. Included due to Support (3xNps, opposed by 1xNp), taking a chance (Min value odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat + 20% = 3.40)
Bets: Place Only, 123 Combo (Win bet), Sequential Total & Xtra Combos     BASIC PLAN +1

Place Only I
Chel: PAULO DANCER/WON - ARMARIVER/3rd
Bets: Basic, Sequential Xtra Combo    BASIC PLAN +1

Place Only II
Chel: GLINGERBANK/2ND
Nott: DRAMATIC TURN/WON
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN +1

Naps I
PAULO DANCER/Won F/c 4/5
Bets: Basic (Triple stake), 'Double' (no 2nd selection, therefore an enhancement of the Win single), 2-Row 'Double' (normally with Row 1 but today as per the Double), Sequential Total Combo     BASIC PLAN +2

Naps II - No selection

Fancies
Chel: OFAREL D'AIRY/2ND - DARBY WALL/FELL when contending - GUNGADU/WON
Nott: BOBANSHEIL/NON RUN - SAHARA SPHINX/LOST
Sedg: TURNBERRY BAY/Unlucky 2ND
Bet: Multi Fancy (EWTrebles, EWAccum.), Xtra Multi/1 after Turnberry Bay, Xtra Multi/2 after Ofarel d'Airy, Xtra Multi/3 after Darby Wall
Chel: ARMARIVER/3rd/GLINGERBANK/2nd
Nott: DRAMATIC TURN/Won/GOODBYE CASH/2ND - SAHARA SPHINX/Lost/SHOW WINNER/WON
Bets: 2x2EWDoubles, 3x3EWTrebles     OVERALL -7

My Lay bets - None

Tips
SURPRISE INSIDE F/c 4/1 854 Dela(USA/LOST - from yesterday (the bad run continues, discouragingly)
No.2 POOLETTA F/c 3/1 915 Keen(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL -1]
Major Lay tip to hand is DARK THUNDER/2ND F/c 3/1 225 Sedg.
Seems fair enough. Unfortunately a (fancied) non-runner makes the chance less of it losing the race. Fingers crossed. The fates conspired to help it win and still it didnt. Good selection! 
Bet: Target liability = 13 points     [OVERALL +4]
No Major Win tip     [OVERALL N/A]
No good word(s) today     [OVERALL N/A]