The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets for Fri 25 Aug 2006
Day145Month5Week4.4
Phase 06B Day25

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 4.5 (Day146):
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) closing deficit = -2656 ... including BASIC PLAN -366
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) B/F deficit = -102 @average -c4/day ... including BASIC PLAN Phase 06B gain = +15 @average +c1/day
Phase 06A:
11 gaindays overall from 29 betdays in Apr [-957]; 15 from 31 in May [-174]; 15 from 30 in June [+408]; 15 from 31 in Jul [-1938]
Phase 06B:
12 gaindays from 25 betdays in Aug.

Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Ad hoc Supplementary: GOLD OPTION - see below/WON
Bet: Small win     OVERALL +5

Row 3
310 Sand. REGAL FLUSH F/c 11/8 Min value odds according to my stats (+20%) 1.89 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.55 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.64/2ND
405 Ches. PRETTY MAJESTIC F/c 11/8 Min val odds atms+20% 2.32 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.55 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.08/WON
420 Sand. GOLD OPTION F/c 5/6 Min val odds atms+20% 1.39 New odds stat stakes enhancer x *3.00 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.82/Won
Bets: Place Only (except Win Mop Up via the Xtra Combo/LateXtra/1 Combo on Gold Option), the 3 *Combos, Added: LateXtra/1 Combo
*Note: The notional stake for Gold Option used for the multiple bets was not arrived at by using the full stakes enhancer "x 3.00." Only 10% of it was applied.     BASIC PLAN +2

Naps I - No selection

Naps II
Sali: EDDIE JOCK F/c 5/4/2ND
Bets: Total Combo     BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.19]

Place Only I - on Row 3 (except Gold Option) and
NmktJ: MANY VOLUMES/LOST
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (accum. incl. Gold Option), Added: LateXtra/1 Combo after Many Volumes     BASIC PLAN -1

Place Only II
Bath: MR LOIRE/2ND
Sali: CHAMPERY/LOST
Sand: BIG ROBERT/WON
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN -1

Fancies and My Lay bets - None contemplated

Tips
Lay tips to hand from one source are:-
MEADOW MISCHIEF F/c 5/2. This is Newmarket's selection to win and I don't oppose these. I shall not be laying this one [Wrong decision, this time]/HRS LOST - No bet
MONTOSARI 510 Ches. F/c 11/4 My target liability=**8/HRS LOST (**Disregarded as this Lay tip is also put forward by my other source for tips. I shall not, for economy's sake, add together the target liabilities.) Race won by Newmarket's selection Ramsgill     [OVERALL +1]
The other source for Lay tips:-
also MONTOSARI. My TL=**16 which I shall use (i.e., not 8+16)/Hrs lost
HANELLA 750 Sali. F/c 5/2 TL=33/HRS LOST     [OVERALL +12]

PROSPECTS
I've struggled to arrive at today's list and, now that it's done, my confidence in it is just about as meagre as it gets: a whitewash today would be no surprise. [No loss on Basic Plan, thankfully, but I had dropped several runners from the Place Only rows which went on to win, notably SYLVAN @ 10/1] But, apart from the Lays, little is at stake.     OVERALL +20 (including BASIC PLAN +1)

Results of bets for Thu 24 Aug 2006
Day144Month5Week4.3
Phase 06B Day24

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 4.3 (Day145):
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) closing deficit = -2656 ... including BASIC PLAN -366
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) C/F deficit = -122 @average -c5/day ... including BASIC PLAN Phase 06B gain = +14 @average +c1/day
Phase 06A:
11 gaindays overall from 29 betdays in Apr [-957]; 15 from 31 in May [-174]; 15 from 30 in June [+408]; 15 from 31 in Jul [-1938]
Phase 06B:
11 gaindays from 24 betdays in Aug.

Row 1 - No qualifier

Row 2
600 Redc. CAVALRY GUARD F/c 5/6 Min value odds according to my 'odds configuration' stats (+ 20%) 1.58 New odds stat stakes Row2 enhancer x 1.11 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.10/2ND
Bets: Basic, Place Only, 2-Row Treble (the usual enhancment of the Basic bet due to lack of other qualifiers in Rows 1&2), 123 Combo (EW Double), Total Combo, Xtra Combo (an enhancement of the Basic bet as there is no other qualifier)     BASIC PLAN -7

Row 3
325 York. PRIDE OF NATION F/c 11/2 Non-qualifier but included due to 7xNaps in the Racing Post Selection Box/3RD
Bets: 123 Combo, Total Combo     BASIC PLAN -1

Naps I
CAVALRY GUARD - see above/2nd
Bets: Basic, Double (an enhancement of the Basic bet as per other bets), 2-Row Doubles (ditto), Total Combo     BASIC PLAN -12

Naps II
Muss: MINAASH/LOST
York: PRIDE OF NATION/3rd
Bets: Total Combo     BASIC PLAN -3

Place Only I - on Row 2
Bet: Basic, Xtra Combo (an enhancement of the composite Win bet on Cavalry Guard)     BASIC PLAN -1

Place Only II - on all, or from,
Font: ALLABOVEBOARD/WON
Muss: SMOKIN BEAU/WON - FREMEN/LOST - MINAASH/Lost
Redc: EVENT MUSIC/WON
Stra:ILPENSEROSO/WON/THEDUBLINPUBLICAN/LOST(2ND) - LA DOLFINA/2ND
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN -1

Fancies & My Lay Bets - None contemplated

Tips
Two Lay tips to hand
OVER BRIDGE 300 Stra. F/c 5/2 My target liability=14/HRS LOST
AVESOMEOFTHAT 750 Font. F/c 5/2 TL=14 (Reduced to 10 due to non-runner)/FELL    [OVERALL +7]
Added: The Win tip was PRIDE OF NATION/3rd
Bet: As it was, strictly, a non-qualifier in Row 3, I went the 'stats adjusted stake' route despite its popularity Correct decision this time     [OVERALL +20]

PROSPECTS
Again not much risked, though the Lays could hurt if either wins its race, or they both do.
Lately, I have fallen back to principal reliance on the main function of the preparatory work I do, namely, to find runners for my multiple bets. In Phase 06A I had lost sight of this aim, rather, and gone for too many major single bets as well, generally at odds that were too poor. (All would have been well had they won, of course, but a disproportionate number didn't, to my cost.)
I shall continue on occasion to bet singly with more significant stake levels than the norm for Basic Plan  when my stats are especially strong. Today, for instance, on CAVALRY GUARD/2nd they suggest chances are broadly 50/50 for the win (though the 'odds configuration' stat is, on the contrary, extra strong: 68W33L). I am deeming that the stats are collectively not good enough [Correct decision, this time]. So, I'll make do with the bets on it that fall within good old, steady, usually dependable if unexciting, Basic Plan.     OVERALL +1 (including BASIC PLAN -26)

Results of bets for Wed 23 Aug 2006
Day143Month5Week4.2
Phase 06B Day23

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 4.3 (Day144):
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) closing deficit = -2656 ... including BASIC PLAN -366
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) C/F Deficit = -123 @average -c5/day ... including BASIC PLAN Phase 06B gain = +40 @average +c2/day

Phase 06A:
11 gaindays overall from 29 bet-days in Apr [-957]; 15 from 31 in May [-174]; 15 from 30 in June [+408]; 15 from 31 in Jul [-1938]
Phase 06B:
10 gaindays from 23 bet days in Aug.

Rows 1,2&3 - No qualifier

Naps I
325 York. ALEXANDROVA F/c 4/7 Min value odds (according to my stats [+ 20%] on results involving previous qualifiers in races with the same odds configuration as this one) 1.89 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.55 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.64/WON
Bets: Basic (doubled), notional Win Double (an enhancement of the Basic bet as there is no other qualifier), 2-Row Double (normally with Row 1 but no qualifier there, so a further enhancement of the Basic bet), Total Combo (enhancement of the Basic bet for the same reason as per the Win Double)    BASIC PLAN +4

Naps II - No selection

Place Only I
Hami: CEDARLEA/2ND
York: ALEXANDROVA/Won
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (Win Double)     BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.12]

Place Only II
Folk: DAYROSE/WON/REGENT'S PARK/2ND - BOWLED OUT/LOST - FORCES SWEETHEART/WON
Hami: RANCHO CUCAMONGA/3RD - REGENTS SECRET/LOST
York: SHORT SKIRT/2ND - BUACHAILL DONA/WON
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN +1

Fancies & Lay bets - None contemplated

Tips
Added: SMART INSTINCT 400 York F/c 11/8/LOST
Bet: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.18)]
The Lay tip to hand is
FREELOADER 420 Hami. F/c 7/2 My target liability=80 (but I'm capping it @ 40 for economy) I have slight misgivings about this one but I shall probably go ahead on it/HRS LOST     [OVERALL +10]
The 1/2 point EW Win tip was FOXHAVEN 250 York. F/c 8/1/LOST
Bet: I went the 'stats adjusted stake' route: small win and the balance to 5% of bank (frozen at recent highest level)     [OVERALL -23]

PROSPECTS
Being cautious, I'm unimpressed by my statistics for the win on any of the stronger 'consensus favourites' I located today. Looks like another Laura Luck day to me.
Very little risked, obviously - apart from on the Lay tip     OVERALL -13 (including BASIC PLAN +5)

Results of bets for Tue 22 Aug 2006
Day142Month5Week4.1
Phase06B Day22

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 4.2 (Day143):
[OVERALL Phase A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) closing deficit = -2656 (including BASIC PLAN -366)]
OVERALL Phase B only (wef 01/08/06) C/F Deficit = -110 @average -c5/day ...
                 ... including BASIC PLAN Phase B gain = +35 @average +c2/day
(Gaindays Phase A: 11 overall from 29 bet-days in Apr [-957]; 15 from 31 in May [-174]; 15 from 30 in June [+408]; 15 from 31 in Jul [-1938])  Gaindays Phase B: 10 from 22 in Aug.

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 4.1 (Day142):
[OVERALL Phase A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) closing deficit = -2656 (including BASIC PLAN -366)]
OVERALL Phase B only (wef 01/08/06) C/F Deficit = -139 @average -c7/day ...
                 ... including BASIC PLAN Phase B Deficit = [+43] Correction: +39 @average +c2/day
(Gaindays Phase A: 11 overall from 29 bet-days in Apr [-957]; 15 from 31 in May [-174]; 15 from 30 in June [+408]; 15 from 31 in Jul [-1938])  Gaindays Phase B: 9 from 21 in Aug.

Row 1
520 Yarm. FELICITOUS F/c 2/7 Min value odds according to my stat (just 3 like selections in sample) 1.60 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.53 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.79/WON
550 Yarm. SHAMHOOTA F/c 1/8 Min val odds 1.60 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.53 Old stat stakes enhancer (just 11 like selections in sample) x 1.75/WON
Bets: Place Only, 2-Row Doubles (with Naps I) + *Mop Ups (*via Xtra Combo re Shamhoota), 2-Row sequential Treble (with Row 2), the 3 Combos     BASIC PLAN +85

Row 2
320 NewtA. YES SIR F/c 1/2 Min val odds 1.40 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 6.00 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.40 Halve stakes as the race is over obstacles/WON
Bets: Basic, 2-Row Trebles (with Row 1), the 3 Combos     BASIC PLAN +29

Row 3
630 Wind. BLUE AURA F/c 4/1 Included due to 2xNaps in the RP Selection Box (taking a chance)/WON
Bets: 123 & Total Combos    
Pleasing that this decision paid off nicely     BASIC PLAN +32

Naps I
NewtA: YES SIR/Won
Yarm. FELICITOUS/Won - SHAMHOOTA/Won
Bets: Win Doubles, 2-Row Win Doubles (with Row 1), Total Combo     BASIC PLAN +79

Naps II - No selection

Place Only I - on Rows 1 (Felicitous) & 2 and
NewtA: BOUNCY CASTLE/NON RUN
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (accum. incl Shamhoota)     BASIC PLAN +2

Place Only II
NewtA: TAVALU/3RD
Wind: VILLA SONATA/WON/HIGH TREASON/3RD
Yarm: OSOLOMIO/LOST/BORN WILD/WON
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN +2

Fancies and my Lay bets - None contemplated

Tips
Lay tips to hand from one source are
FALMASSIM 650 Yarm. F/c 3/1 My target liability here=11/HRS LOST - No bet due to non-runners
RAKATA 700 Wind. F/c 7/2 MyTL=80 (capped @ 40 for economy - thankfully)/HRS WON     [OVERALL -42]
Lay tip to hand from another source: also FALMASSIM/Hrs lost - No bet. Seems to be well fancied to lose. MyTL here=24     [OVERALL N/A]
I am nervous about Laying this runner as it is nominated as the likely winner by Racing Post Ratings and by Newmarket (whom I seldom oppose) in the RP Selection Box. I may change my mind about Laying this one.
Added: The Win tip was LII NAJMA F/c 9/2/LOST
Bet: I went the 'stats-adjusted stakes' route on a mark a couple of losers back: small Win, topped up Place Only to balance of the (then) 10% of bank     [OVERALL -47]

PROSPECTS
Following some lengthy agonizing, I decided not to go for any Win singles on BASIC PLAN bets. The prices will be too short, costing me too dear in the event of mishap at this time. Instead, I rely for profit today on significantly staked multiples. Wrong decision - but no regrets. I went as far out on a limb as I dared.
I should have gone 'sequential' on the major Doubles multiple. I may regret not having done so. No. Events went in my favour. I would have won less backing sequentially    
OVERALL +139 (including BASIC PLAN +229)

Results of bets for Sun 20 Aug 2006
Day140Month5Week3.6(Sunday Mode Not applied)
Phase06B Day20

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 3.7 (Day141):
OVERALL Phase A (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) Ending deficit = -2656 (including BASIC PLAN -366).
OVERALL Phase B (wef 01/08/06) C/F Deficit = -278 @average -c14/day ...
... including BASIC PLAN Phase B Deficit = -186 @average -c9/day
Gaindays Phase A: 11 overall from 29 bet-days in Apr [-957]; 15 from 31 in May [-174]; 15 from 30 in June [+408]; 15 from 31 in Jul [-1938].
Gaindays Phase B: 8 from 20 in Aug.

Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier

Row 3
220 Pont. HURRICANE FLYER F/c 9/4/2ND (No bet - too late)
230 Bath. CUPACOCOA F/c 6/4/WON
300 Bath. TOPJEU F/c 5/4/WON Included here on the basis of support in RP Selection Box
430 Bath. CANTABRIA F/c Eve/LOST
440 NewtA. GRAND SLAM HERO F/c 5/4/2ND
Bets: Place Only (not Topjeu as not qualified; not Hurricane Flyer & Cupacocoa as too late), the 3 Combos (not Hurricane Flyer & also not Topjeu & Cupacocoa in the Xtra Combo as too late)     BASIC PLAN -3

Naps I - No selection

Naps II
TOPJEU/Won & GRAND SLAM HERO/2nd - see above
Bets: Total Combo     BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.38]

Place Only I - on Row 3 (except Topjeu)
Bets: Basic (just Cantabria & Grand Slam Hero due to lateness), Xtra Combo (ditto)     BASIC PLAN -1

Place Only II - No qualifier

No fancies or Lay bets contemplated

Tips
The 1/2 point EW tip was IRISH WOLF F/c 9/1/3RD
Bet: I went the 'stats adjusted stakes' route (but was late and missed the 7/1). Modest win BET, topped up to half standard stake & halved again due to the race being over obstacles    OVERALL -1

PROSPECTS
Just a few fun bets today
OVERALL -4 (including BASIC PLAN -4)