19th August
Day139Month5Week3.5 (PhaseB Day19)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
B/F to Aug Week 3.6 (Day140):
OVERALL Phase A (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) Ending deficit = -2656 (including BASIC PLAN -366).
OVERALL Phase B (wef 01/08/06) C/F Deficit = -274 average -c14/day ...
... including BASIC PLAN Phase B Deficit = -182 average -c10/day
Gaindays Phase A: 11 overall from 29 bet-days in Apr [-957]; 15 from 31 in May [-174]; 15 from 30 in June [+408]; 15 from 31 in Jul [-1938].
Gaindays Phase B: 8 from 19 in Aug.Review:
A 'not-so-excellent approach to horse racing' it would seem? Not enough on winning bets, too much lost on losing ones. To be fair, however, the performance is showing up worse than its methodology deserves. It's been impossible, for some time, to risk stakes which compare in size with those that are responsible for the bulk of the present deficit. In short, there are 'Before' and 'After' elements to the performance that are so unlike one another that I've started a new phase (B) today backdated just to the start of this month. This has freed up my figures of much brought forward accounting baggage, and should make progress on the approach I am using easier to assess.
Row 1
610 MarkR. BRISCOE PLACE F/c 1/2 Min value odds according to my stat for the forecast odds configuration of this race 1.89 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.73 Old stats stakes enhancer x 1.47 Halve stakes as this race is over obstacles/UNSEATED
625 Good. RAHIYAH F/c 2/5 Min val odds 1.89 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 2.73 Old stat stakes (small sample of 10 races) enhancer x 1.50/WON
745 MarkR. RAICHU F/c 4/6 Min val odds 1.55 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.73 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.47 Halve stakes as over obstacles/LOST
Bets: Basic (stats-adjusted stakes capped @ 10% of the computation), Star (lower level, uncapped) + Mop Ups, 2-Row Doubles (with Naps I), 2-Row Trebles (normally with Row 2 but no qualifier there today), Place Only, 123 & Total Combos (Win Doubles, and a sequential Win Treble), Xtra Combo (accum.) BASIC PLAN -86
Rows 2 & 3 - No qualifier
Naps I
RAHIYAH - see above/Won
Bets: Basic, Total Combo BASIC PLAN -1
Naps II - No selection
Place Only I - on Row 1 and
Bang: LONGUEVILLE MANOR/2ND
Good: DYNAMIC RHYTHM/LOST
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN -5
Place Only II - on all, or from,
Bang: SCHINKEN OTTO/NON RUN - ROYAL CHINA/NON RUN
Good: TALCEN GWYN/3RD - AHGOWANGOWAN/2ND
MarkR: WAGES/WON
Newb: CARADAK/3RD - 1/2 PAID (BF): 1/2 LOST (Tote)
Ripo: CABRIOLE/3RD
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +1
Fancies - None contemplated My Lay bets - None contemplated
Tips
The 1/2 point EW Tip to hand is SHORTEST DAY 730 Good/LOST I have gone the 'stats-adjusted' stakes route. Modest win, balance topped up but (changed) to 1/2 ratchet-held stake @ 5% of bank when set (5% now, strictly, would be a little less than today'amount) [OVERALL - 23]
PROSPECTS
"You wait an hour for a bus, and then ... three ...."
The day-before-yesterday 2 x Row 1s, today 3. As for the other Rows, I struggled to find inclusions.
I've capped (@10%) the Basic bets in Row 1, and 'hope for the best' about all the rest. A disappointing day.
OVERALL -117 (including BASIC PLAN -91)
Results of bets for Fri 18 Aug 2006
Day138Month5Week3.4
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 3.5 (Day139):
OVERALL (begun 01/04/06) Deficit = -2813* Average -c20/day ....
[*709 lost Overall Apr 15, & 463 Jul 29, & 1245 Jul 30, accounting for -c20/day on average overall - I've just about caught up on the combined deficit of 3 dire days]
.... including (i.e., not additional) BASIC PLAN deficit = -457** Average -c3/day
[**296 lost on Basic Plan Jul 13, & 245 on Apr 23, & 217 on Jul 29 together accounting for -c6/day on average on the Basic Plan side of my betting - I'm roughly half way towards catching up on the combined effect of 3 bad days]
Gaindays: 11 overall from 29 bet-days in Apr [-957]; 15 from 31 in May [-174]; 15 from 30 in June [+408]; 15 from 31 in Jul [-1938]; 8 from 18 in Aug [-157].
Rows 1&2 - No qualifier
Row 3
735 NewmJ. LUBERON F/c 7/4 Min value odds according to my stats 2.31 New odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.53 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.28/LOST
Bets: Place Only, 123 Combo (tiny win single, in this case), Total & Xtra Combos.
Added: the extra loss caused by my staking error on RAYHANI (as a quasi-Supplementary - see Tips & Glossary)/LOST BASIC PLAN -3 plus OVERALL -24
Naps I
400 Folk. QUAICH F/c 11/8/LOST
Bets: Basic for Row (Double stake), Double (in this case, an enhancement of the single), 2-Row Double (ditto), Total Combo BASIC PLAN -3
Naps II
645 Catt. TRINCULO F/c 6/5 Min val odds 2.31 New odds stat stakes reducer x 0.51 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.28/WON
Bet: Total Combo BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only I - on Row 3 and
300 Newc. JUST LILLE/LOST
Bets: Basic for Row, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN -3
Place Only II - on all, or from,
Catt: HALLA SAN/LOST - TRINCULO/Won
Folk: QUAICH/Lost
Newb: SILCA CHAIVE/WON (No match) - RAYHANI/Lost
Newc: ARCH OF TITUS/2ND/MAYOR OF LONDON/WON
NewmJ: PERFECTPERFORMANCE/WON - PUYA/WON
Bets: Basic for Row BASIC PLAN -2
No fancies contemplated No Lay bets contemplated
Tips
Lay tip to hand is FRACTURED FOXY 610 Catt. F/c 7/4 My target liability=12/HRS WON [OVERALL -12]
The Win tip to hand is RAYHANI F/c 7/2 3.15 Newb. *My stats are not good, here. Based on those, this runner qualified just for my "Place Only II" Row. So, I'm going the 'stats-adjusted' stakes route - tiny win, topped up (@ 10% of bank) to Place Only/Lost
*I should've capped off @ 5% of bank, of course, because of the poor stats. [OVERALL -24]
PROSPECTS
I have found very little to opt for today. I should think I'll break even or thereabouts. OVERALL -72 (including BASIC PLAN -13)
Results of bets for Thu 17 Aug 2006
Day137Month5Week3.3
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Aug Week 3.4 (Day138):
OVERALL (begun 01/04/06) Deficit = -2741*
Average -c20/day. [*709 lost Overall Apr 15, & 463 Jul 29, & 1245 Jul 30, accounting for -c20/day on average overall - I've just about caught up on the combined deficit of 3 dire days]
including (i.e., it's not additional) BASIC PLAN deficit = -444**
Average -c3/day [**296 lost on Basic Plan Jul 13, & 245 on Apr 23, & 217 on Jul 29 together accounting for -c6/day on average on the Basic Plan side of my betting - I'm roughly half way towards catching up on the combined effect of 3 bad days]
[Gaindays: 11 overall from 29 bet-days in Apr; 15 from 31 in May; 15 from 30 in June; 15 from 31 in Jul; 8 from 17 in Aug.]
Row 1
325 Sand. MARIOTTO F/c 4/5 Min value odds according to my stats + 20% 2.15 New odds stat (for Row 1 picks) stakes enhancer x 1.67 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.42/WON
630 Muss. GOOSE GREEN F/c 4/9 Min val odds 1.41 New odds stat (for Row 1 picks) stakes enhancer x 1.67 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.42 The race being a Claimer, I have taken a chance to include Goose Green in Row 1. My 1st inclination was to put it into Row 2 and I may regret not having acted on that/WON
Bets: Basic, Star (lower level - reduced to 10% of computed stake) + Mop Up on Mariotto, 2-Row (sequential) Double (with Naps I), 2-Row Treble (with Row 2 except no qualifier, there, so just an adjusted sequential Win Double), Place Only on Mariotto, 123 & Total Combos (sequential Win Doubles), Xtra Combo (accum. including Goose Green
BASIC PLAN +17
Rows 2 & 3 - No qualifier
Naps I
MARIOTTO (Triple stake)/Won & GOOSE GREEN/Won - see above
Bets: Basic, sequential Win Double, 2-Row sequential Double (with Row 1), Total Combo BASIC PLAN +6
Naps II - No selection
Place Only I - on Row 1 (Goose Green in Xtra Combo only)
Muss: CARNIVORE/2ND
Sand: EMILY'S PLACE/WON
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II - on all, or from,
Beve: MULLIGAN'S PRIDE/3RD
Chep: KEIDAS/NON RUN
Muss: RARE COINCIDENCE/LOST
Sand: MISTER MAQ/LOST
Sali: BENELUS/WON - SHORE THING/2ND
Bets: BASIC @ halved stakes BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.12]
Fancies - None contemplated
My Lay bets - None contemplated
Tips
The Lay tip to hand is ENDLESS NIGHT F/c 520 Sali. My target liability (based on a new "ratchet" base stake) = 20/HRS LOST [OVERALL +5]
Added: The 1/2 point EW tip was DYNACAM 315 Sali/3RD I went the 'stats adjusted' route - tiny win and the balance to 5% of bank Place Only [OVERALL +26]
Added: BOLTON HALL 530 Muss/LOST
Bet: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.10)]
PROSPECTS
Row 1 qualifiers for a change!
My "Delta Quadrant" emergency measure today is to cap my main bets' stats-adjusted stakes @ 10% of standard. That is enough for me to risk at this time.
OVERALL +53 (including BASIC PLAN +23)
Results of bets for Wed 16 Aug 2006Day136Month5Week3.2
C/F to Aug Week 3.3 (Day137):
OVERALL (begun 01/04/06) Deficit = -2794*
Average -c21/day. [*709 lost Overall Apr 15, & 463 Jul 29, & 1245 Jul 30, accounting for -c20/day on average overall - I've just about caught up on the combined deficit of 3 dire days]
including (i.e., it's not additional) BASIC PLAN deficit = -467**
Average -c3/day [**296 lost on Basic Plan Jul 13, & 245 on Apr 23, & 217 on Jul 29 together accounting for -c6/day on average on the Basic Plan side of my betting - I'm roughly half way towards catching up on the combined effect of 3 bad days]
[Gaindays: 11 overall from 29 bet-days in Apr; 15 from 31 in May; 15 from 30 in June; 15 from 31 in Jul; 7 from 16 in Aug.]
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
250 Yarm. DODGE CITY F/c 8/11 Min value odds (according to my stats for this race's forecast odds configuration i.e., number of runners up to 8/1 and number under 14/1) 1.87 New odds stat (for Row 2 picks) stakes enhancer x 1.06 Old stats stakes enhancer x 1.11/2ND
Bets: Basic, 2-Row Trebles (in this case an enhancement of the single win bet as there is no other qualifier), Place Only, the 3 Combos BASIC PLAN -4
Row 3
300 Sali. CESC F/c 15/8 Min value odds (informally as this is not strictly a qualifier) 2.15 New odds stat (general i.e., all Row 1&2 picks) stakes enhancer x 1.35 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.64 Inclusion swayed by Racing Post Selection Box 1xNap, 3xNBs/NON RUN
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos BASIC PLAN -2
Naps I - No selection
Naps II
340 Beve. KEY TIME F/c Evs Min value odds (informally as this is not a qualifier) 1.87 New odds stat stakes enhancer (general) x 1.56 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.70/2ND
615 Hami. OLD ROMNEY F/c 4/6 Min value odds (informally as per above) 1.41 New odds stat stakes enhancer (general) x 2.67 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.79/WON
Bets: Total Combo (double weighting of stake computation re Key Time) BASIC PLAN -2
Place Only I - on Row 2
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (small Win) BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.16]
Place Only II
Beve: KEY TIME/2nd/RIODAN/LOST
Hami: OLD ROMNEY/Won/PRINCETON/2ND
Sali: PICTAVIA/WON
Bets: Basic @ halved stakes BASIC PLAN +2
Fancies
Reverse forecasts on
Beve: KEYTIME/2nd/RIODAN/BET LOST - HUNTERS' GLEN/WON/DARENJAN/2ND (BET WON at a loss. Oops.)
Hami: OLD ROMNEY/Won/PRINCETON/2nd (BET WON at a loss. Oops.) - VIEWFORTH/3RD/CHAIRMAN BOBBY/2ND - Nearly! OVERALL -2
My Lay bet - None contemplated
Tips
Added: R8 Dela. LOOK AT HIM F/c 6/1/LOST [OVERALL EVEN (-0.10)]
The Lay tip to hand is
GIGS MAGIC 820 Hami. My target liability=10/Close 2ND [OVERALL +3]
Added: The Win tip to hand is EBERT 330 Sali. I am going the 'stats-adjusted' stake route - tiny win, topped up to 5% of bank Place Only/(Unlucky) 2ND
Wrong decision, right result [OVERALL +12]
PROSPECTS
Few picks @ small stakes. I have tried to restrict myself ruthlessly to the most likely winners according to my stats - but it was not easy and I may have got the short-list quite, quite, wrong.
Today's a "Laura Luck" racing day, probably.
OVERALL +6 (including BASIC PLAN -6)