2007-Oct-30
Bets for Oct 30 2007
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night): No short-list. Very few peripherals found which makes it a light punting day for me. My heaviest commitment is on WHAT'S FOR TEA/LOST (Place Only II & III/Naps), which I am hoping will at least Place. My stats are only 50/50 on it for the win, hence no Win bet contemplated; also - usually a bad sign - it is opposed by Newmarket's selection for the race. In fact, my main bets in the UK, Australia & South Africa all failed to Place. Very disappointing day.
Summary Day 211 (wef 01/04/07) C/f to Oct 30 (Month07Wk4.7+3Day212Phase07BDay122) - BASIC PLAN Phase 07B (begun 01/July/07) updated surplus = +411 (within BASIC PLAN deficit of -330 (since 01/Jan/06), of which just -92* is implicit within 2007's OVERALL deficit of -506 pts ... to which I've reinstated (added back) -5554 Overall for all of 2005 (Jan-Dec), and -11022 likewise for all of 2006 = **Provisional pre-Write-Off global figure = OVERALL deficit of -17007 pts. Ave. deficit of -0/day* for Basic Plan over 301 days since 01/01/07; 19 x Win days ('Even' counts as a win, here - "If I haven't lost, I must have won.") on Basic Plan so far in Oct, 22 in Sep, 17 in Aug, 16 in July, 17 in June, 15 in May;14 in April E&OE.
**Note: I have decided to finalise the present Write Off process only after I have brought the current Phase (2007B) to an end. This is because I'm especially pleased with the way it is going and feel I should allow it enough time to reveal if another important corner has been turned.
Combo I (Press Corps) bets: (V)/Base Stake=11 pts: (see "AMD" in my Glossary): No Xtra Combo+No LateXtra+Mop Ups, K/7 pts: No 123 Combo+No Xtra+MopUps, E/9 pts: No Total Combo(Doubles/EWTreble/4-Fold accum+Xtras+MopUps, K/7 pts: No Flat Basic "Diminished" Total Combo+Xtra/s+MopUps (often Doubles etc from Rows 1-3 + Naps I&II but not Place Only III/n nor Place Only III/Aus) BASIC PLAN N/A
See below for Combo II (Naps Table) & Combo III (Miscellaneous tips).
Row 1: (W)/11 pts: No qualifier - Bets typically: Basic & [(W)/31] Flat Basic Star BASIC PLAN N/A
Row 2: (J)/14 pts: No qualifier [Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = ?, New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x ?, Old odds stat stakes enhancer x ?] - Bets: Basic+ Capped Mop Up + Capped Basic Place Only, (S)/12 pts: Basic FS (Base rung, technically)+ Capped Mop Up+Capped FS Basic Place Only, Recent addition: (W)/11pts: Top-up on Capped [Win (+MopUp) &/or] Place bets (to full computed stats adjusted levels) on (IR) GEM DALY/WON F/c 11/10; (G)/14 pts: Flat Basic Place Supplement to Capped bets on (RSA) SPEED MASTER/LOST F/c Evs; C/10 pts: Sometimes added in running: Straight Substitution Win Supplementary (to replace unmatched Place bet element) on WHAT''S FOR TEA/Lost; (T)12 pts: No Ad hoc Place Combo+Xtra, No Ad Hoc Token Basic Win Supplementary; (T)/12 pts: No Basic Remedial Win Supplementary (1st rung, technically, now)+Mop Up+RS Basic Place Only; (M)/33 pts: No Short-list Place 'Combo'+MopUps/Short-list Place MopUps; L/7 pts (re: corrective action when taken calculatedly) Mistake/s Failed to get one bet matched [Insignificant (as unplaced)], Fees [Nil], Accounting discrepancy [Nil] [OVERALL -24]
Row 3: (B)/15 pts: No qualifier - and Infiltrated on Support: (Boxes): No qualifier; & on General Support (Naps Table) No qualifier - Bets: Basic Place BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only I: (E)/35: No Short list - Bets typically: Basic BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only I/RSA: (A)/30: 2 qualifiers: 0W1PL1L - Bets: Usually Basic 1/3rd Open Place & 2/3rds Bookie Place, Capped sometimes BASIC PLAN -31
Place Only II: (0)/33 pts: WHAT'S FOR TEA/Lost, half match,therefore+WinMopUp F/c 11/8,FIRST AVENUE/WON F/c 5/4/MAJEEN/2ND F/c 3/1 - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -21
Combo II (Naps Table): No Diminished Total Combo+Xtras+No MopUps, E/9 pts: No Total Combo+Xtras+MopUps) BASIC PLAN N/A
Combo III (Miscellaneous): (Z)/11 pts: The POI qualifiers - Bet: Basic Place Double+Xtra BASIC PLAN -23
Naps I: (W)/11 pts: No selection - Bets (Triple stakes typically): Flat Basic Win+Mop Up/Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN N/A
Naps II/Aus ("bet4place.com"): (P)/13 pts: No selection - Bets typically: Basic Win+MopUp/Basic Place Only using my UK racing stats only BASIC PLAN N/A
Naps II: (C)/15 pts: MAJEEN/2nd F/c 3/1 - Bets (Double stakes): Basic Win+Basic Mop Up/Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.35]
Selection Boxes: (VA)/21 pts: No qualifier - Bets typically: Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only III/Aus ("bet4place.com"): (F)/15: 3 tips: 0xPL(incl 0xW)2xL,1xN/r] - Bets: Basic Place Only (occasionally Capped) BASIC PLAN -17
Place Only III/Naps (in mostly Naps Table order): (ZA)/31 pts: NAPOLEAN DYNAMITE/LOST F/c 4/1,RAINBOW FOX/LOST F/c 7/2,GRAND CUVEE/2ND F/c 10/1,HEIGHTS OF GOLAN/LOST F/c 4/1,WHAT'S FOR TEA/Lost,half match+WinMopUp F/c 11/8,POLAR FORCE/LOST F/c 14/1,MAJEEN/2nd (Double stakes) F/c 3/1,SPIRIT OF CONISTAN/WON F/c 7/2 - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -27
A) Miscellaneous Tips
[(i) No Main tip from a paid subscription source OVERALL N/A] (ii) RP International Zone: L/7 pts: Awaited if any (I've discontinued using the disappointing USA tips) - Bets typically: Basic Place Only [OVERALL N/A] (iii) (W)/11 pts: Misc. free tips ("Betinfo24/com"): Man U to win league, Port Vale to get promoted, Stoke City to be relegated, No tip today - Bets (on horse races): Basic Place Only [(b) OVERALL PENDING, but today, N/A]; (iv) (J)/14 pts: Miscellaneous cards (i) (incl. Spotlight/Free Pricewise/on F/c Odds/or Fancies): (IR) NARQUOIS/WON 4/5,GEM DALY/WON F/c 11/10 - Bets: Place Only [OVERALL +7] (v) C/10 pts: Anti-Post: No selection - Bets typically: Basic [OVERALL N/A]
B) Processed:
[(i) Endorsements over obstacles: Discontinued (until the Jumps season proper begins) OVERALL N/A]; (ii) Selection Boxes: Promoted to BASIC PLAN (now above); (iii) "TABonline.com"(Australian) - B/10: 5 selections 5xPL(incl 2xW)0xL,0xN/R applying my UK racing stats - Bets (usually when bet4place.com tips are not available, but today both): Basic Place Only [OVERALL +2]
MY GLOSSARY ON THE PHILOSOPHY (recently semi-updated)
AMD: an "alphabetical monitoring device" for non-level stakes betting. ... [To illustrate: at a glance, the sequence on Supplementaries was at its worst on 26th April, 2006 @ "ZW." I had brought it 'down' to "ZC" by 10th September, 2006. Today, for Supplementaries, it stands at "K." ...]
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