2007-Oct-29
Bets for Oct 29 2007
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night): Short-list of 2: WELSH EMPEROR/WON (Row 1) & FULL MARKS/LOST (Row 3). Quite a lot of peripherals found which makes it a heavy punting day, too much so perhaps. I may thin it down as I go along, depending on early results. I am delighted to have ended the day relatively unscathed after the early, and damaging, disappointment of Full Marks's 4th.
Summary Day 210 (wef 01/04/07) C/f to Oct 30 (Month07Wk4.7+2Day211Phase07BDay121) - BASIC PLAN Phase 07B (begun 01/July/07) updated surplus = +530 (within BASIC PLAN deficit of -211 (since 01/Jan/06), of which just +27* is implicit within 2007's OVERALL deficit of -371 pts ... to which I've reinstated (added back) -5554 Overall for all of 2005 (Jan-Dec), and -11022 likewise for all of 2006 = **Provisional pre-Write-Off global figure = OVERALL deficit of -17007 pts. Ave. surplus of +0/day* for Basic Plan over 300 days since 01/01/07; 19 x Win days ('Even' counts as a win, here - "If I haven't lost, I must have won.") on Basic Plan so far in Oct, 22 in Sep, 17 in Aug, 16 in July, 17 in June, 15 in May;14 in April E&OE.
**Note: I have decided to finalise the present Write Off process only after I have brought the current Phase (2007B) to an end. This is because I'm especially pleased with the way it is going and feel I should allow it enough time to reveal if another important corner has been turned.
Combo I (Press Corps) bets: (V)/Base Stake=11 pts: (see "AMD" in my Glossary): Xtra Combo+No LateXtra(Sequential Double/NET LOSS)+Mop Ups, K/7 pts: 123 Combo+No Xtra (Sequential Double/NET LOSS)+MopUps, E/9 pts (Capped @ 7 today): Half share of Total Combo(Doubles/EWTreble/4-Fold accum/NET LOSS)+Xtras+MopUps, K/7 pts: No Flat Basic "Diminished" Total Combo+Xtra/s+MopUps (often Doubles etc from Rows 1-3 + Naps I&II but not Place Only III/n nor Place Only III/Aus) BASIC PLAN -15
See below for Combo II (Naps Table) & Combo III (Miscellaneous tips).
Row 1: (W)/11 pts: WELSH EMPEROR/Won F/c 4/6 - Bets: Basic & [(W)/31] Flat Basic Star BASIC PLAN +37
Row 2: (J)/14 pts: No qualifier [Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = ?, New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x ?, Old odds stat stakes enhancer x ?] - Bets: Basic+ Capped Mop Up + Capped Basic Place Only, (S)/12 pts: Basic FS (Base rung, technically)+ Capped Mop Up+Capped FS Basic Place Only, Recent addition: (X)/11pts: Top-up on Capped [Win (+MopUp) &/or] Place bets (to full computed stats adjusted levels) on WELSH EMPEROR/Won ; (F)/15 pts: Flat Basic Place Supplement to Capped bets on (RSA) ANGEL IN DISGUISE/WON F/c c6/4, (UK) MAGIC GLADE/WON F/c 8/11,ALWAABEL/2ND F/c Evs/LORD SANDICLIFFE/WON F/c 6/4; B/10 pts: Sometimes added in running: No Straight Substitution Win Supplementary (to replace unmatched Place bet element); (T)12 pts: No Ad hoc Place Combo+Xtra, No Ad Hoc Token Basic Win Supplementary; (T)/12 pts: Basic Remedial Win Supplementary (1st rung, technically, now)+Mop Up+RS Basic Place Only on FULL MARKS/Lost F/c 4/7, (M)/33 pts: Short-list Place 'Combo'+MopUps/Short-list Place MopUps; L/7 pts (re: corrective action when taken calculatedly) Mistake/s [Insignificant], Fees [-1], Accounting discrepancy [+5, the day too complicated to bother searching for the reason] [OVERALL -15]
Row 3: (B)/15 pts: FULL MARKS/Lost - and Infiltrated on Support: (Boxes): No qualifier; & on General Support (Naps Table) No qualifier - Bets: Basic Place BASIC PLAN -4
Place Only I: (E)/35: Short list/NET LOSS - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -4
Place Only I/RSA: (ZA)/31: 5 qualifiers: 1W1PL3L - Bets: Usually Basic 1/3rd Open Place & 2/3rds Bookie Place, Capped sometimes BASIC PLAN -2
Place Only II: (P)/33 pts: ALWAABEL/2nd F/c Evs/LORD SANDICLIFFE/Won F/c 6/4, ADVERSITY/WON F/c 8/11 - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +10
Combo II (Naps Table): No Diminished Total Combo+Xtras+No MopUps, E/9 pts: Half share of Basic Total Combo(Win Doubles/EWTrebles,4-Fold Accum/Net loss)+Xtras+MopUps) BASIC PLAN -1
Combo III (Miscellaneous): (X)/11 pts: The POI qualifiers/LOST - Bet: Basic 5-Fold Place Accum+Xtras BASIC PLAN -17
Naps I: (W)/11 pts: MAGIC GLADE/Won F/c 8/11 - Bets (Triple stakes): Flat Basic Win + Capped Mop Up/Capped Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN +9
Naps II/Aus ("bet4place.com"): (P)/13 pts: No selection - Bets typically: Basic Win+MopUp/Basic Place Only using my UK racing stats only BASIC PLAN N/A
Naps II: (D)/15 pts: PROVENCE/2ND F/c 4/5 - Bets (Double stakes): Basic Win+Basic Mop Up/Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN -7
Selection Boxes: (VA)/21 pts: DART/3RD F/c 9/4,MAGIC GLADE/Won F/c 8/11,NEW GUINEA/WON F/c 4/5 - Bets: Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN +2
Place Only III/Aus ("bet4place.com"): (E)/15: No tips: [N/AxPL(incl 1xW)3xL,1xN/r] - Bets typcically: Basic Place Only (occasionally Capped) BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only III/Naps (in mostly Naps Table order): (YA)/31 pts: MAGIC GLADE/Won (Triple stakes) F/c 8/11,ENCORES/WON F/c 5/1,POLISH POWER/NO RUN F/c 5/2,PROVENCE/2nd (Double stakes) F/c 4/5,FULL MARKS/Lost F/c 4/7,ADVERSITY/Won F/c 8/11 - Bets: Basic, Capped on Magic G BASIC PLAN -19
A) Miscellaneous Tips
[(i) No Main tip from a paid subscription source OVERALL N/A] (ii) RP International Zone: L/7 pts: Overlooked (I have discontinued using the USA tips) - Bets typically: Basic Place Only [OVERALL N/A] (iii) (W)/11 pts: Misc. free tips ("Betinfo24/com"): Man U to win league, Port Vale to get promoted, Stoke City to be relegated, No tip today - Bets (on horse races): Basic Place Only [(b) OVERALL PENDING, but today, N/A]; (iv) (K)/14 pts: Miscellaneous cards (i) (incl. Spotlight/Free Pricewise/on F/c Odds/or Fancies): (IR) (Galw) MUSTANGSALLYRALLY/3RD F/c 9/2/I'LLRINGUBACK/4TH F/c 6/1,CLOPF/LOST F/c 2/1,KIMBERLITE KING/WON F/c 11/10, (Leop) QUEEN ALTHEA/2ND F/c 5/1, (UK) FARADAY/3RD F/c 7/4,LIPIZZA/LOST F/c 4/1,PROVENCE/2nd F/c 4/5,LITTLEDODAYNO/LOST,missed F/c 7/4 - Bets: Place Only [OVERALL +4] (v) C/10 pts: Anti-Post: No selection - Bets typically: Basic [OVERALL N/A]
B) Processed:
[(i) Endorsements over obstacles: Discontinued (until the Jumps season proper begins) OVERALL N/A]; (ii) Selection Boxes: Promoted to BASIC PLAN (now above); (iii) "TABonline.com"(Australian) - C/10: 7 selections [6xPL(incl 3xW)1xL,0xN/R] applying my UK racing stats - Bets (when Bet4Place tips not available): Basic Place Only [OVERALL +8]
MY GLOSSARY ON THE PHILOSOPHY (recently semi-updated)
AMD: an "alphabetical monitoring device" for non-level stakes betting. ... [To illustrate: at a glance, the sequence on Supplementaries was at its worst on 26th April, 2006 @ "ZW." I had brought it 'down' to "ZC" by 10th September, 2006. Today, for Supplementaries, it stands at "J." ...]
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