The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Mon Oct 23 2006
Day204Month7Week4.2 (Phase 06B Day84)

PROSPECTS
Two "consensus fav" in my main short-list, both 'strong:' NON COMPLIANT/LOST (in Place Only I - Correct decision) & PRINCESS VALERINA/NON RUN (in Row 2, rather than 1, as it is in a 5 furlong sprint and, sometimes, what looks to be 'the best horse' does not win these - if, for instance, it is too slowly away). My stats are very encouraging as regards the latter, much less so on the former. Otherwise, another "Laura Luck" day.
OUTCOME:     OVERALL +3 points (including BASIC PLAN +18)

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Oct Week 4.3 Day 205 (Phase B: Day 85)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -64 points @ an average of  -c1/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) surplus = +157 points @ an average of +c2/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: overall 15 (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201];  Oct: 13 (12) [+242]
PLUS B/F OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]

Row 1 - No qualifier

Row 2
440 Leic. PRINCESS VALERINA/Non run F/c 8/13 Min value odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat + 20% = 1.37 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 7.00 (but based on only 9 results) Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.89 (on 55 results)
The stakes have computed too high for me at this time so I've capped 'em. I am left with a significant enough grand total committed
Bets: Capped Basic (down to 10% of computed adjusted stake), Capped FS + Capped Mop Up, Token Remedial Supplementary (6th rung) + Capped Mop Up, 2-Row 'Treble' (normally with Row 1 but today an enhancement of the Win single), Capped Place Only, Supplementary Short-List Combo (Win bet on Non Compliant), the 3 Combos + Xtras, Mistakes, Unexplained Discrepancy, if any, accounted within Overall [-0.01]     BASIC PLAN +7 plus OVERALL -7

Row 3
330 Kemp. ATWIRL/WON F/c 4/1 Included due to Support (1xNap, 3xNBs), taking a chance
Bet: 123, Total Combos (combined Win single after the non-runners), 123 Xtra/1 & Total Xtra/1 Combos (Win singles)     BASIC PLAN +9

Place Only I - on Row 2 and
LingAW: NON COMPLIANT/Lost
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo, LateXtra/1 Combo     BASIC PLAN -3

Place Only II
Kemp: KEON/LOST/ATWIRL/Won - JADEERON/LOST/SHARAAB/LOST
LingAW: GUISEPPE VERDI/WON/HURRICANE THOMAS/2ND
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN -1

Naps I
PRINCESS VALERINA/Non run- see above
Bets: Basic (uncapped), 'Double' (no 2nd selection, therefore an enhancement of the Win single), 2-Row 'Double' (normally with Row 1 but today as per the Double), Total Combo, Xtra Total/1 Combo     BASIC PLAN +2

Naps II
Leic: NADAWAT/NON RUN - STEPPING UP/NON RUN
Bets: Total Combo, Xtra Total/1 Combo     BASIC PLAN +6

Fancies - on Place Only II & Naps II qualifiers/selections, and
Ling: MITANNI/LOST/CONSERVATIVE/3RD
Bets: Fancy Multi (2x2EWDoubles & 3x3EWTrebles)     OVERALL -8

My Lay bets - None

Tips
N0.8 CURSORA 845 Keen(USA/LOST - late result from yesterday
No.3 ALL IN WITH ACES Fc 3/1 854 Dela(USA)Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.16)]
Major Lay tip to hand is NORTHERN SPLENDOUR/NO RUN F/c 11/4
Dettori's choice of ride which is a touch worrying, but otherwise it seems a fair enough selection. However, I have dropped the level of my stakes
Bet: Target liability a modest 8 points     [OVERALL N/A ]
No Major Win tip     [OVERALL N/A ]
No good word(s) to hand     [OVERALL N/A ]