2007-Oct-27
Bets for Oct 27 2007
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night): Short-list OF 2: NAKAI/WON & BREMEN/2ND (Place Only I). My stats encourging about Bremen, less so about Nakai. However, Bremen has attracted no Nap which makes me cautious. Once again I settle for the modest win bets via the Xtra Combo. I have found lots of peripherals to back, too many really, about which my stats are a mixed bag. I am taking a chance that I shall gain overall.
Summary Day 208 (wef 01/04/07) C/f to Oct 28 (Month07Wk4.7Day209Phase07BDay119) - BASIC PLAN Phase 07B (begun 01/July/07) updated surplus = +556 (within BASIC PLAN deficit of -185 (since 01/Jan/06), of which just +53* is within just 2007's OVERALL deficit of -317 pts ... to which I've reinstated (added back) -5554 Overall for all of 2005 (Jan-Dec), and -11022 likewise for all of 2006 = **Provisional pre-Write-Off global figure = OVERALL deficit of -16953 pts. I moved into profit yesterday, at last, on Basic Plan for the year since Jan 1st! - Ave. of +0/day* for Basic Plan over 298 days since 01/01/07; 19 x Win days ('Even' counts as a win, here - "If I haven't lost, I must have won.") on Basic Plan so far in Oct, 22 in Sep, 17 in Aug, 16 in July, 17 in June, 15 in May;14 in April E&OE.
Combo I (Press Corps) bets: (U)/Base Stake=12 pts: (see "AMD" in my Glossary): No Xtra Combo(Sequential Double/NET LOSS+No LateXtra+No Mop Ups, J/7 pts: 123 Combo+No Xtra+MopUps, J/7 pts: No share of "Diminished" Total Combo(Sequential Double/[Combo II's NET LOSS])+No Xtra+MopUps (often Doubles from Rows 1-3 + Naps I&II but not Place Only III/n nor Place Only III/Aus), D/9 pts: No Flat Basic Total Combo+Xtra/s if any+MopUps) BASIC PLAN -6
See below for Combo II (Naps Table) & Combo III (Miscellaneous tips).
Row 1: (Y)/11 pts: No qualifier - Bets typically: Basic &, usually, [(X)/31] Flat Basic Star BASIC PLAN N/A
Row 2: (J)/14 pts: No qualifier [Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = ?, New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x ?, Old odds stat stakes enhancer x ?] - Bets: Basic+ Capped Mop Up + Capped Basic Place Only, (S)/12 pts: Basic FS (Base rung, technically)+ Capped Mop Up+Capped FS Basic Place Only, Recent addition: (Y)/11pts: No Top-up on Capped Win (+MopUp) &/or Place bets (to full computed stats adjusted levels); (H)/14 pts: Flat Basic Place Supplement to Capped bets on (Aus) THE HAND/WON,YARTERBERY/LOST,MCFLY/WON,(UK) BREMEN/2ND; Recent addition: A/10 pts: Added: Straight Substitution Win Supplementary in running (to replace unmatched Place bet element) on (IR) GEMINI LUCY/LOST; (T)12 pts: No Ad hoc Place Combo+Xtra, Added: Ad Hoc Token Basic Win Supplementary; (S)/12 pts: No Basic Remedial Supplementary (Base rung, technically)+Capped Mop Up+Capped RS Basic Place Only, (L)/33 pts: Short-list Place 'Combo'/WON+MopUps/Short-list Place MopUps; L/7 pts (re: corrective action when taken calculatedly) Mistake/s: Bets missed [Some disadvantage], Fees [Nil], Accounting discrepancy [+3] [OVERALL +13]
Row 3: (A)/15 pts: No qualifier - but Infiltrated on Support: (Boxes): No qualifier; & on General Support (Naps Table: 3xNaps): KAL BARG/WON, (Naps Table: 2xNaps) MISSIT/2ND,overlooked - Bets: Basic Place BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only I: (D)/35: Short list/WON - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +2
Place Only I/RSA: (ZA)/31: 6 qualifiers: 4W0PL2L - Bets: Usually Basic 1/3rd Open Place & 2/3rds Bookie Place, Capped sometimes BASIC PLAN -23
Place Only II: (Q)/32 pts: KAL BARG/Won,PETIT LORD/WON,MISSIT/2nd,overlooked - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +4
Combo II (Naps Table): Diminished Total Combo(Sequential Double/NET LOSS)+ Xtra if any+MopUps, E/9 pts: No share of Basic Total Combo(typically Win Double+Xtra/s if any+MopUps) BASIC PLAN -1
Combo III (Miscellaneous): (Y)/11 pts: The POI qualifiers/LOST - Bet: Basic 6-Fold Place Accum+Xtras BASIC PLAN -6
Naps I: (X)/11 pts: No selection - Bets (Triple stakes) typically: Basic Win + Mop Up/Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN N/A
Naps II/Aus ("bet4place.com"): (O)/13 pts: THE HAND/Won - Bets: Basic Win+MopUp/Basic Place Only using my UK racing stats only BASIC PLAN +10
Naps II: (D)/15 pts: No selection - Bets (usually Double stakes, but not today): Basic Win+Basic Mop Up/Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN N/A
Selection Boxes: (WA)/21 pts: NELSON'S SPICE/UNSEATED,TORRENS/2ND,FLORISTRY/WON,overlooked - Bets: Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN +3
Place Only III/Aus ("bet4place.com"): (D)/15: 11 tips: 9xPL(incl 6xW)2xL,0xN/r - Bets: Basic Place Only (occasionally Capped) BASIC PLAN +16
Place Only III/Naps (in mostly Naps Table order): (WA)/31 pts: ALMAJD/LOST,FOLLY LODGE/LOST,CANDIDATO ROY/NO RUN,URBANE/2ND,IBN KHALDUN/WON,NAKAI/Won,MISSIT/2nd,overlooked,ELUSIVE DREAM/WON,RAIDING PART/WON - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +7
A) Miscellaneous Tips
[(i) No Main tip from a paid subscription source OVERALL N/A] (ii) RP International Zone: L/7 pts: (RSA) RORKE'S DRIFT/LOST - Bets typically: Basic Place Only [OVERALL EVEN (-0.23)] (iii) (W)/11 pts: Misc. free tips ("Betinfo24/com"): Man U to win league, Port Vale to get promoted, Stoke City to be relegated, LAWYER DES ORMEAUX/LOST - Bets (on horse races): Basic Place Only [(b) OVERALL PENDING, but today, -5]; (iv) (J)/14 pts: Miscellaneous cards (i) (incl. Spotlight/Free Pricewise/on F/c Odds/or Fancies): (USA/BREEDERS CUP) 8 tips (2W2PL4L/NET LOSS), (UK) QACKERS/LOST,GUNGADU/3RD,RED GALA/LOST,CURTAIN CALL/LOST,(IR) GEMINI LUCY/Lost,no match,therefore WinMopUp,SIZING AFRICA/NO RUN,SALUTE HIM/LOST,(UK) SAVARAIN/LOST,RAIDING PARTY/Won - Bets: Place Only [OVERALL -6] (v) C/10 pts: Anti-Post: No selection - Bets typically: Basic [OVERALL N/A]
B) Processed:
[(i) Endorsements over obstacles: Discontinued (until the Jumps season proper begins) OVERALL N/A]; (ii) Selection Boxes: Promoted to BASIC PLAN (now above); (iii) Recent addition - B/10: "TABonline.com" (Australian organisation): No selections [?xPL(incl ?xW)?xL,?xN/R] applying my UK racing stats - Bets (when Bet4Place tips not available): Basic Place Only [OVERALL N/A]
MY GLOSSARY ON THE PHILOSOPHY (recently semi-updated)
AMD: an "alphabetical monitoring device" for non-level stakes betting. ... [To illustrate: at a glance, the sequence on Supplementaries was at its worst on 26th April, 2006 @ "ZW." I had brought it 'down' to "ZC" by 10th September, 2006. Today, for Supplementaries, it stands at "H." ...]
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