2007-Oct-25
Bets for Oct 25 2007
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night): Short-list of 2: BALLAD MAKER/3RD & BOLD ADVENTURE/WON (Place Only I). My stats on the former are only 50/50 for the win - and the latter's are not terrific either. So I shall settle for small win bets on these via the Xtra Combo and rely more on them to Place. A few peripherals are found but they include worrying negatives in my stats. Looks another difficult day to me, one on which, very easily, I could totally blow out. Need not have worried.
Summary Day 206 (wef 01/04/07) C/f to Oct 26 (Month07Wk4.5Day207Phase07BDay117) - BASIC PLAN Phase 07B (begun 01/July/07) surplus = +502 (within BASIC PLAN deficit of -239 (since 01/Jan/06), of which -1* is within just 2007's OVERALL deficit of -388 pts ... to which I've reinstated (added) -5554 Overall for all of 2005 (Jan-Dec), and -11022 likewise for all of 2006 = **Provisional pre-Write-Off global figure = OVERALL deficit of -17024 pts. Ave. of -0/day* for Basic Plan over 296 days since 01/01/07; 17 x Win days ('Even' counts as a win, here - "If I haven't lost, I must have won.") on Basic Plan so far in Oct, 22 in Sep, 17 in Aug, 16 in July, 17 in June, 15 in May;14 in April E&OE.
Combo I (Press Corps) bets: (T)/Base Stake=12 pts: (see "AMD" in my Glossary): Xtra Combo(Sequential Double/NET GAIN)+No LateXtra+Mop Ups, I/8 pts: No 123 Combo+No Xtra+MopUps, J/7 pts: No share of "Diminished" Total Combo(Sequential Double/NET LOSS)+Xtra if any+Mop Ups (often Doubles from Rows 1-3 + Naps I&II but not Place Only III/n nor Place Only III/Aust), D/9 pts: No Flat Basic Total Combo+Xtra/s if any+MopUps) BASIC PLAN +10
See below for Combo II (Naps Table) & Combo III (Miscellaneous tips).
Row 1: (Y)/11 pts: No qualifier - Bets typically: Basic &, usually, [(X)/31] Flat Basic Star BASIC PLAN N/A
Row 2: (J)/14 pts: No qualifier [Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = ?, New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x ?, Old odds stat stakes enhancer x ?] - Bets: Basic+ Capped Mop Up + Capped Basic Place Only, (S)/12 pts: Basic FS (Base rung, technically)+ Capped Mop Up+Capped FS Basic Place Only, Recent addition: (Y)/11pts: Top-up on Capped Win (+MopUp) &/or Place bets (to full computed stats adjusted levels) on (Aus) TRIB/NO RUN F/c 4/6, (UK) (Win bet+MopUp) MAXWIL/WON F/c 4/5; (J)/14 pts: Flat Basic Place Supplement to Capped bets on (RSA) KISS FOR KATE/WON F/c c15/10 & (UK) BALLAD MAKER/3rd F/c 4/5; Recent addition: (A)/10 pts: No Straight Substitution Win Supplementary in running (to replace unmatched Place bet element); (T)12 pts: Ad hoc Place Combo+Xtra, Added: Ad Hoc Token Basic Win Supplementary on (Aus) KURRAJONG/LOST, (S)/12 pts: No Basic Remedial Supplementary (Base rung, technically)+Capped Mop Up+Capped RS Basic Place Only, (M)/33 pts: Short-list Place 'Combo'/WON+Win MopUps/Short-list Place MopUps; L/7 pts (re: corrective action when taken calculatedly) Mistake/s: I confused two runners and twice placed losing Win bets on the same wrong horse (GENERAL LEDGER)! [-11!], Fees [-1], Accounting discrepancy [-1] [OVERALL +4]
Row 3: (B)/15 pts: No qualifier - plus Infiltrated on Support: (Boxes): No qualifier [Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A, New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x N/A, Old Odds stat stakes enhancer x N/A]; On General Support (Naps Table): No qualifier [Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x N/A Old stat stakes reducer x N/A] - Bets: Basic Place BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only I: (E)/35: Short list - Bets: Basic (Capped on Ballad Maker) BASIC PLAN +4
Place Only I/RSA: (A)/30: Race 1 LAVENDER WATER/WON F/c c2/1, R4 KISS FOR KATE/Won F/c c15/10 - Bets: Usually Basic 1/3rd Open Place & 2/3rds Bookie Place, Capped sometimes BASIC PLAN +13
Place Only II: (S)/32 pts: GENERAL LEDGER/2ND F/c 11/10, GINGERBANK/NON RUN F/c 7/4 - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +1
Combo II (Naps Table): Diminished Total Combo(Sequential Double/Net loss)+ Xtra if any+MopUps, E/9 pts: No share of Basic Total Combo(typically Win Double+Xtra/s if any+MopUps) BASIC PLAN -2
Combo III (Miscellaneous): (W)/11 pts: See POI/RSA/WON - Bet: Basic Place Double+No Xtra BASIC PLAN +5
Naps I: (X)/11 pts: No selection - Bets (Triple stakes) typically: Basic Win + Mop Up/Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN N/A
Naps I/Aus ("bet4place.com"): (S)/12 pts: ROYAL TAGA/3RD - Bets: Basic Win+MopUp/Basic Place Only using my UK racing stats only BASIC PLAN +1
Naps II: (C)/15 pts: MAXWIL/Won F/c 4/5 & ALFIE TUPPER/2ND F/c 4/1 - Bets (Double stakes): Basic Win+Basic Mop Ups/Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN +11
Promoted to Basic Plan recently: Selection Boxes: (YA)/21 pts: YADDREE/WON F/c 2/1,WHAT KATIE DID/WON F/c 9/4 - Bets: Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only III/Aus ("bet4place.com"): (G)/14: 7 tips: 5xPL(incl 0xW)1xL,1xN/r - Bets: Basic Place Only (occasionally Capped) BASIC PLAN +4
Place Only III/Naps (in mostly Naps Table order): (ZA)/31 pts: CITY STABLE/DH3RD F/c 9/4,GLIMMER OF LIGHT/LOST F/c 7/2,TRANSCEND/WON F/c 6/1,ALFIE TUPPER/2nd (Double stakes) F/c 4/1, BOLD ADVENTURE/WON F/c 5/4,CONNOR'S CHOICE/2ND F/c 2/1/MAXWIL/Won (Double stakes) F/c 4/5 - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +7
A) Miscellaneous Tips
[(i) No Main tip from a paid subscription source OVERALL N/A] (ii) RP International Zone: I/8 pts: (RSA) No bet - there was a tip, but it lost - Bets typically: Basic Place Only [OVERALL N/A] (iii) (V)/11 pts: Misc.free tips ("Betinfo24/com"): Man U to win league, Port Vale to get promoted, Stoke City to be relegated, No tip today - Bets (on races) typically: Basic Place Only if poss or else Tiny Win [(b) OVERALL PENDING, but today N/A]; (iv) (K)/14 pts: Miscellaneous cards (i) (incl. Spotlight/Free Pricewise/on F/c Odds/or Fancies): (FR) CONCENTRIC/2ND, (IR) GOLDFINGER/LOST F/c 6/4,POWER STATION/2ND F/c 4/7 - Bets: Place Only [OVERALL +2] (v) C/10 pts: Anti-Post: No selection - Bets typically: Basic [OVERALL N/A]
B) Processed:
[(i) Endorsements over obstacles: Discontinued (until next Jumps season) OVERALL N/A]; (ii) Selection Boxes: Promoted to BASIC PLAN (now above); (iii) Recent addition - B/10: "TABonline.com" (Australian organisation): No selections [?xPL(incl ?xW)?xL,?xN/R] applying my UK racing stats - Bets (when Bet4Place tips not available): Basic Place Only [OVERALL N/A]
MY GLOSSARY ON THE PHILOSOPHY (recently semi-updated)
AMD: an "alphabetical monitoring device" for non-level stakes betting. ... [To illustrate: at a glance, the sequence on Supplementaries was at its worst on 26th April, 2006 @ "ZW." I had brought it 'down' to "ZC" by 10th September, 2006. Today, for Supplementaries, it stands at "J." ...]
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