2006-Oct-22
Diary for Oct 22 2006
Day203Month7Week4.1S (Phase 06B Day83)
PROSPECTS
Two "consensus fav" in my main short-list, 'medium-strong:' FILL THE BUNKER/2ND & LITTLE VENICE/WON. My stats are 50/50ish and worse for the win. In short, a "Laura Luck" day.
OUTCOME: A 'no match' Place Only bet cost me a small profit on Basic Plan and over-betting under Tips reduced the overall gain OVERALL +8 points (including BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.02])
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Oct Week 4.2 Day 204 (Phase B: Day 84)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -67 points @ an average of -c1/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) surplus = +139 points @ an average of +c2/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug: overall 15 (14 Basic Plan) [-105]; Sep: 13 (15) [-201]; Oct: 12 (10) [+239]
PLUS B/F OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bets: Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Up on Little Venus (see below), Supplementary Short-List Combo (Sequential Double), Mistake: Backed the wrong horse in yesterday's late result (but the right selection lost, too), Mistakes: Arithmetic error in bet on Fill the Bunker (slight over-bet), Mistake: Refunded, Unexplained Discrepancy, if any, accounted within Overall [-0.04] OVERALL +14
Row 3
300 Towc. FILL THE BUNKER/2ND F/c 9/4 Included due to Support (2xNaps) (Min value odds according to my 'odds configuration' stat + 20% = 2.80 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.69 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.91 Halve stakes at the race is over obstacles)
330 Towc. LITTLE VENUS/WON F/c 7/4 Min val odds + 20% = 2.32 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.58 Old stat stakes adjuster x Zero Halve stakes as over obstacles
Bet: Place Only, Sequential 123 Combo, Total & - without Fill the Bunker - Xtra Combos, Xtras BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only I - on Row 3
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (including Fill the Bunker), LateXtras BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.40]
Place Only II
Winc: DE SOTO/LOST/PEPPERONI PETE/WON - no match
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -2
Naps I
LITTLE VENUS/Won - see above
Bets: Basic, 'Double' (no 2nd selection, therefore an enhancement of the Win single), '2-Row Double' (normally with Row 1 but today as per the Double), Total Combo, Xtras BASIC PLAN +1
Naps II
Added: Aint: KAUTO STAR F/c 10/11
Bets: Total Combo, Xtras BASIC PLAN +1
Fancies - No selection
My Lay bets - None
Tips
N0.8 CURSORA 845 Keen(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
ROCK GODDESS No price avail 1255 Scot(RSA/LOST
GARDEN ROUTE 1245 Long(FR/LOST
Bets: Tiny win (except Garden Route EW, taking chance @ 2 points (EW), & Rock Goddess @ 1 point) This experiment is proving disappointing [OVERALL -5]
No Major Lay tip to hand [OVERALL NA]
No Major Win tip [OVERALL N/A]
No good word(s) today so far, looking unlikely [OVERALL N/A]
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