2007-Oct-20
Bets for Oct 20 2007
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night): Short-list of 1: FRANKIE FIGG/WON (Place Only I). My Odds stats are only 50/50 for the win & my Majority stat just good. For the win, I'll settle on my Xtra Combo bet. A fair few peripherals found, mostly small or tiny stakes. I shall be happy to break even at worst but, of course, am dependent on Frankie Figg to Place. However, I am also vulnerable because of quite a heavy, and somewhat chancy, RSA involvement that could very easily go wrong. The latter worked out well, after all!
Summary Day 201 (wef 01/04/07) C/f to Oct 21 (Month07Wk3.7Day202Phase07BDay112) - BASIC PLAN Phase 07B (begun 01/July/07) surplus = +366 (within BASIC PLAN deficit of -376 (wef 01/Jan/06), of which -138* is within just 2007's OVERALL deficit of -558 pts ... to which I've reinstated (added) -5554 Overall for all of 2005 (Jan-Dec), and -11022 likewise for all of 2006 = **Provisional pre-Write-Off global figure = OVERALL deficit of -17194 pts. Ave. of -c0/day* for Basic Plan over 291 days since 01/01/07; 13 x Win days ('Even' counts as a win, here - "If I haven't lost, I must have won.") on Basic Plan so far in Oct, 22 in Sep, 17 in Aug, 16 in July, 17 in June, 15 in May;14 in April E&OE.
Combo I (Press Corps) bets: (V)/Base Stake=11 pts: (see "AMD" in my Glossary): Xtra Combo(Win single/WON)+No LateXtra/s+Mop Ups, J/7 pts: 123 Combo+No Xtra+No MopUps, K/7 pts: No "Diminished" Total Combo+Xtra if any, Mop Ups (often Doubles from Rows 1-3 + Naps I&II but not Place Only III/n nor Place Only III/Aust), D/9 pts: No Flat Basic Total Combo+Xtra/s if any+MopUps) BASIC PLAN +6
See below for Combo II (Naps Table) & Combo III (Miscellaneous tips).
Row 1: (Y)/11 pts: No qualifier - Bets typically: Basic &, usually, [(X)/31] Flat Basic Star BASIC PLAN N/A
Row 2: (K)/14 pts: No qualifier [Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A, New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x N/A, Old odds stat stakes enhancer x N/A] - Bets: Basic+ Capped Mop Up + Capped Basic Place Only, (U)/12 pts: Basic FS (Base rung, technically)+ Capped Mop Up+Capped FS Basic Place Only; Recent addition: A/10pts: Top-up on Capped Place bet (to full computed stats adjusted level) on (Aust) YOUNG BEAU/LOST (RSA) TAKE WING/3RD F/c 3/1; (O)/13 pts: Flat Basic Place Supplements to Capped bets on (Aust) TWO QUID/3RD,KADENA LANE/WON,MALDIVIAN/NO RUN, (RSA) PILLOW TALK/WON F/c c15/8; Recent addition: (A)/10 pts: Straight Substitution Win Supplementary in running (to replace unmatched Place bet element); (T)12 pts: No Ad Hoc Basic Supplementary, (S)/12 pts: No Basic Remedial Supplementary (Base rung, technically)+Capped Mop Up+Capped RS Basic Place Only, (O)/33 pts: Short-list Place 'Combo'/WON+Win MopUp/Short-list Place MopUp; N/6 pts (re: corrective action when taken calculatedly) Mistake/s: Added a Place Supplementary to my Basic bet on (Aust) LE RHYTHM/WON & did a Win bet on TORRENS/LOST [+5], Fees [Nil], Accounting discrepancy [Negligible] [OVERALL +22]
Row 3: (C)/15 pts: No qualifier - plus none Infiltrated on Support: (Boxes): [Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A, New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x N/A, Old Odds stat stakes enhancer x N/A]; On General Support (Naps Table): No qualifier [Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x N/A Old stat stakes reducer x N/A] - Bets: Basic Place BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only I: (G)/34: No short list [Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A, New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x N/A, Old odds stat stakes enhancer x N/A] - Bets: Capped Basic BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only I/RSA: (D)/25: (Durb) TAKE WING/3rd F/c 3/1, POPYVICH/WON F/c c17/10, VERMILION/WON F/c 5/2 (Turf) PILLOW TALK/Won F/c c15/8, ROMAN TREASURE/WON F/c c9/4, BISMARCK/NO RUN F/c c2/1 - Bets: Usually Basic 1/3rd Open Place & 2/3rds Bookie Place, Capped sometimes BASIC PLAN +19
Place Only II: (VA)/31 pts: TORRENS/Lost F/c Evs,JUST LIKE A WOMAN/WON F/c 9/4, PATMAN DU CHARMIL/3RD F/c 13/8,MAKAASEB/LOST F/c 2/1 - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -11
Combo II (Naps Table): No Diminished Total Combo+Xtra+MopUps, E/9 pts: No share of Basic Total Combo(typically Win Double+Xtra/s if any+MopUps) BASIC PLAN N/A
Combo III (Miscellaneous): A/10 pts: See POI/RSA - Bets: 6-Fold Basic Place Accum.+Xtra. BASIC PLAN +14
Naps I: (X)/11 pts: No selection - Bets (Triple stakes) typically: Basic Win + Mop Up/Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN N/A
Naps I/Aus ("bet4place.com"): (U)/12 pts: LE RHYTHM/Won - Bets: Basic Win+MopUp/Basic Place Only using my UK racing stats only BASIC PLAN +5
Naps II: (D)/15 pts: No selection - Bets (Double stakes): Basic Win+Basic Mop Up/Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only III/Aus ("bet4place.com"): (E)/15: 8 tips: 5xPL(incl 3xW)2xL,1xN/r - Bets: Basic Place Only (occasionally Capped) BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only III/Naps (in mostly Naps Table order): (B)/25 pts: MALJIMAR/2ND F/c 12/1,DR SHARP/LOST F/c 14/1/MACORVILLE/LOST F/c 15/2,MULTIDIMENSIONAL/LOST F/c 9/2/NOTNOWCATO/LOST F/c 3/1/LITERATO/WON F/c 9/2,ROYAL CONFIDENCE/3RD F/c 7/1,PRESIDENT ELECT/3RD F/c 3/1,NEW APPROACH/WON F/c 6/4 - Bets: Basic. BASIC PLAN +2
A) Miscellaneous Tips
[(i) No Main tip from a paid subscription source OVERALL N/A] (ii) RP International Zone: L/7 pts: (RSA) MADAM MILLY/LOST - Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL EVEN (-0.29)] (iii) (V)/11 pts: Misc.free tips ("Betinfo24/com"): Man U to win league, Port Vale to get promoted, Stoke City to be relegated, No tip today - Bets (on races) typically: Basic Place Only if poss or else Tiny Win [(b) OVERALL PENDING, but today N/A]; (iv) (M)/13 pts: Miscellaneous cards (i) (incl. Spotlight/Free Pricewise/on F/c Odds/or Fancies): TIGER KING/2ND F/c 10/3,CESARE/LOST 5/1,AUTUMN HARVEST/WON F/c 11/10,AL BADEYA/3RD F/c 7/4,EAGLE MOUNTAIN/2ND,FAIR ALONG/3RD - Bets: Place Only [OVERALL +3] (v) C/10 pts: Anti-Post: MACORVILLE/Lost (VCbet), Cesarowich - Bets: Basic at present [OVERALL -1]
B) Processed:
[(i) Endorsements over obstacles: Discontinued (until next Jumps season) OVERALL N/A]; (ii) Selection Boxes: (ZA)/20 pts: ROYAL AND REGAL/WON F/c 13/8 - Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL +2]; (iii) NEW - B/10: "TABonline.com" (Australian organisation): No selections [?xPL(incl ?xW)?xL,?xN/R] applying my UK racing stats - Bets (when Bet4Place tips not available): Basic Place Only [OVERALL N/A]
MY GLOSSARY ON THE PHILOSOPHY (partially updated)
AMD: an "alphabetical monitoring device" for non-level stakes betting. ... [To illustrate: at a glance, the sequence on Supplementaries was at its worst on 26th April, 2006 @ "ZW." I had brought it 'down' to "ZC" by 10th September, 2006. Today, for Supplementaries, it stands at "O." ...]
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