2007-Oct-13
Bets for Oct 13 2007
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night): No short-list. My stats are not that encouraging of the wins on a number of likely runners. Danger, for me, if these fail to Place.
Summary Day 194 (wef 01/04/07) C/f to Oct 14 (Month07Wk2.7Day195Phase07BDay105) - BASIC PLAN Phase 07B (begun 01/July/07) surplus = +328 (within BASIC PLAN deficit of -414 (wef 01/Jan/06), of which -176* is within just 2007's OVERALL deficit of -592 ... to which I've reinstated (added) -5554 Overall for all of 2005 (Jan-Dec), and -11022 likewise for all of 2006 = **Provisional pre-Write-Off global figure = OVERALL deficit of -17228 pts. Ave. of -c1/day* for Basic Plan over 284 days since 01/01/07 8 x Win days ('Even' counts as a win, here - "If I haven't lost, I must have won.") on Basic Plan so far in Oct, 22 in Sep, 17 in Aug, 16 in July, 17 in June, 15 in May;14 in April E&OE.]
Combo I (Press Corps) bets: (W)/Base Stake=11 pts: (see "AMD" in my Glossary): No Xtra Combo+No LateXtra/s+No Mop Ups, J/7 pts: 123 Combo+No Xtra+No MopUps, K/7 pts: No "Diminished" Total Combo+No Xtra+No Mop Ups (often Doubles from Rows 1-3 + Naps I&II but not Place Only III/n), D/9 pts: No Flat Basic Total Combo+Xtra/s if any+MopUps) BASIC PLAN N/A
See below for Combo II (Naps Table) & Combo III (Miscellaneous tips).
Row 1: (Y)/11 pts: No qualifier - Bets typically: Basic &, usually, [(X)/31] Flat Basic Star BASIC PLAN N/A
Row 2: (L)/13 pts: No qualifier - [Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A, New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x N/A, Old odds stat stakes enhancer x N/A] - Bets: Capped Basic+ Mop Up + Capped Basic Place Only, (U)/12 pts: Flat Basic FS (Base rung, technically)+ Capped Mop Up+Capped FS Basic Place Only; New: (Z)/11 pts: Top-up on Capped Place bet (to full computed stats adjusted level) on (Aust) MASTER O'REILLY/WON, ETHBAAL/3RD, GUNNER'S BARRACKS/LOST; (Q)/12 pts Flat Basic Place Supplements to Capped bets on (RSA) JOAN OF ARC/2ND, PERFUMED GARDEN/WON; New: (A)/10 pts: Straight Substitution Win Supplementary in running (to replace unmatched Place bet element); (U)12 pts: No Ad Hoc Basic Place Supplementary, No Ad hoc Straight Win Supplementary+Mop Up, (S)/12 pts: No Basic Remedial Supplementary (Base rung, technically)+Capped Mop Up+Capped RS Basic Place Only, (Q)/32 pts: Short-list Place 'Combo'+Win MopUp/Short-list Place Mop Up; K/7 pts (re: corrective action when taken calculatedly) Mistake/s [Nil], Fees [Nil], Accounting discrepancy [Nil] [OVERALL -3]
Row 3: (C)/15 pts: No qualifier - plus none Infiltrated on Support: (Boxes): [Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A, New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x N/A, Old Odds stat stakes enhancer x N/A]; On General Support (Naps Table): No qualifier [Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x N/A Old stat stakes reducer x N/A] - Bets: Basic Place BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only I: (H)/34: No short list [Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A, New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x N/A, Old odds stat stakes enhancer x N/A] - Bets: Capped Basic BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only I/RSA: (H)/24: 4xWinners + 1x2nd - Bets: Usually Basic 1/3rd Open Place & 2/3rds Bookie Place, Capped sometimes BASIC PLAN +16
Place Only II: (VA)/31 pts: IBN KHALDUN/WON, ACES OR BETTER/2ND, THEATRICAL MOMENT/2ND, SAFARI RUN/2ND, ABSTINENCE/LOST - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +21
Combo II (Naps Table) No Diminished Total Combo+No Xtra+No MopUps, E/9 pts: No share of Basic Total Combo(typically Win Double+Xtra/s if any+MopUps) BASIC PLAN N/A
Combo III (Miscellaneous): B/10 pts: 5Fold Place Accum. - Bets: Basic Place Multiple BASIC PLAN +15
Naps I: (X)/11 pts: No selection - Bets typically: Basic Win + Mop Up/Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN N/A
Naps II/Aus: (U)/12 pts: SONIC QUEST/2ND - Bets: Basic Win+MopUp/Basic Place Only using my UK racing stats only BASIC PLAN +1
Naps II: (E)/15 pts: No selection - Bets typically: Basic Win+Basic Mop Up/Basic Place Only+Win MopUp BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only III/Aus: (H)/14: 9 tips: 7xPL(incl 1xW)2xL,0xN/r - Bets: Basic Place Only (occasionally Capped) BASIC PLAN EVEN
Place Only III/Naps (in mostly Naps Table order): (C)/25 pts: MUTAJARRED/2ND, TREASON TRIAL/LOST, BRISK BREEZE/LOST,CAPTAIN GERRARD/WON,CASTLE HOWARD/LOST,BROOMIELAW/NO RUN,HERECOMESTHETRUTH/LOST,SAFARI RUN/2ND,DABBERS RIDGE/LOST - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +4
A) Miscellaneous Tips
[(i) No Main tip from a paid subscription source OVERALL N/A] (ii) RP International Zone: L/7 pts: Not acted on today - Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL N/A] (iii) (a) Aust/Free tips ("Bet4Place" - overnight): Now moved to Place Only III/Aus (b) (V)/11 pts: Misc.free tips ("Betinfo24"): Man U to win league, Port Vale to get promoted, Stoke City to be relegated, No tip today - Bets (on races) typically: Basic Place Only if poss or else Tiny Win [(b) OVERALL PENDING, but today N/A]; (iv) (M)/13 pts: Miscellaneous cards (i) (incl. Spotlight/Free Pricewise/on F/c Odds/or Fancies): PETROVICH/LOST,CENTENNIAL/2ND,CORK ALL STAR/WON,RED GALA/LOST,DABBER'S RIDGE/LOST,CONQUEST/LOST - Bets: Place Only [OVERALL -5] (v) B/10 pts: Anti-Post: Macorville (VCbet), Cesarowich - Bets: Basic at present [OVERALL PENDING]
B) Processed:
[(i) Endorsements over obstacles: Discontinued (until next Jumps season) OVERALL N/A]; (ii) Selection Boxes: (B)/15 pts: No selection - Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL N/A]; (iii) NEW - B/10: "TABonline.com" (Australian organisation): No selections [?xPL(incl ?xW)?xL,?xN/R] applying my UK racing stats - Bets (when Bet4Place tips not available): Basic Place Only [OVERALL N/A]
MY GLOSSARY ON THE PHILOSOPHY (update pending)
AMD: an "alphabetical monitoring device" for non-level stakes betting. ... [To illustrate: at a glance, the sequence on Supplementaries was at its worst on 26th April, 2006 @ "ZW." I had brought it 'down' to "ZC" by 10th September, 2006. Today, for Supplementaries, it stands at "O." ....]
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