2007-Oct-6
Bets for Oct 06 2007
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night): No short-list. Major commitment to Place on AROMATHERAPY/LOST & AMARNA/2ND, otherwise stakes have computed modest-to-small in the UK. My commitment on the RSA races aggregated high-sh, however and Saturday is quite busy as regards the Australian cards. Actually, I was uneasy about today, starting with the Australian tips (big fields, long forecast odds in the main), and toyed with the idea of taking the day off - but, in the end, I carried on & hoped for the best.
Summary Day 187 (wef 01/04/07) C/f to Oct 07 (Month07Wk1.7Day188Phase07BDay98) - BASIC PLAN Phase 07B (begun 01/July/07) surplus = +161 (within BASIC PLAN deficit of -581 (wef 01/Jan/06), of which -343* is within just 2007's OVERALL deficit of -762 ... to which I've reinstated (added) -5554 Overall for all of 2005 (Jan-Dec), and -11022 likewise for all of 2006 = **Provisional pre-Write-Off global figure = OVERALL deficit of -17397 pts.
Ave. of -c1/day* for Basic Plan over 277 days since 01/01/07
4 x Win days ('Even' counts as a win, here - "If I haven't lost, I must have won.") on Basic Plan so far in Oct, 22 in Sep, 17 in Aug, 16 in July, 17 in June, 15 in May;14 in April, often small - a disappointing 1st quarter this financial year, but the Overall deficit is currently being chipped away E&OE.
Combo I (Press Corps) bets: (X)/Base Stake=11 pts: (see "AMD" in my Glossary): No Xtra Combo+Mop Up, J/7 pts: No 123 Combo+MopUps, K/7 pts: No "Diminished" Total Combo+Xtra/s if any+Mop Ups (typically EWDoubles/EWTreble from Rows 1-3 + Naps I&II but not Place Only III/n), F/9 pts: No Basic Total Combo (typically EWDoubles/EWTreble+Xtra+MopUps) BASIC PLAN N/A
See below for Combo II (Naps Table) & Combo III (Miscellaneous tips).
Row 1: (Y)/11 pts: No qualifier - Bets typically: Basic &, usually, [(X)/31] Flat Basic Star BASIC PLAN N/A
Row 2: (M)/13 pts: No qualifier - [Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A, New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x N/A, Old odds stat stakes enhancer x N/A] - Bets: No Flat Basic+ Mop Up + Capped Basic Place Only, (V)/11 pts: No Flat Basic FS (Base rung, technically)+ Capped Mop Up+Capped FS Basic Place Only; (S)12: No Top-up on Capped Place bet (to full computed stats adjusted level), & Flat Basic Place Supplements to Capped bets on WORTHILY/LOST (Aust), FLOWERING PEACH/2ND & SEVENTH ROCK/WON (RSA); (V)11 pts: Added: Ad Hoc Basic Place Supplementary on SIR GERRY/LOST, Ad hoc Straight Win Supplementary+No Mop Up in running on ARMANA/2ND in substitution for missed match on Place bet, (T)/12 pts: No Flat Remedial Supplementary (Base rung, technically)+Mop Up+Flat RS Basic Place Only, (TA)/32 pts: No Short-list Place 'Combo'+ Short-list Place Mop Up - see also note at "Place Only I" below; J/7 pts (re: corrective action when taken calculatedly) Mistake/s: Missed matching Place bet [Significant disadvantage as the Win bet replacement failed], Fees [Nil], Accounting discrepancy [Negligible] [OVERALL -22]
Row 3: (C)/15 pts: No qualifier
Infiltrated on Support: (Boxes): No qualifier [Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A, New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x N/A, Old Odds stat stakes enhancer x N/A]; On General Support (Naps Table): No qualifier [Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x N/A Old stat stakes reducer x N/A] - Bets typically: Basic Place BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only I: (I)/34: No short list [Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A, New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x N/A, Old odds stat stakes enhancer x N/A] - Bets typically: Basic BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only I/RSA: (L)/23: MAGIC TREASURE/WON, FLOWERING PEACH/2nd, SEVENTH ROCK/Won - Bets: Usually Basic 1/3rd Open Place & 2/3rds Bookie Place, Capped sometimes BASIC PLAN +3
Place Only II: (YA)/31 pts: ECHELON/3RD, AROMATHERAPY/Lost, ARMANA/2nd, half bet not matched, hence + Win MopUp, BOZ/WON, CARADAR/3RD/ADVANCED/LOST, PRESBYTERIAN NUN/LOST - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -30
Combo II (Naps Table) - J/7 pts: No Diminished Total Combo+Mop Ups, F/9 pts: No Basic Total Combo(typically EWDoubles/EWTrebles+Xtra+Mop Ups) BASIC PLAN N/A
Combo III (Miscellaneous): F/9 pts: See POI/RSA (Place Treble/WON+No Xtra and No MopUps which I overlooked) - Bets: Basic Place Multiple BASIC PLAN +2
Naps I: (Y)/11 pts: No selection - Bets typically: Flat Basic Win + Mop Up/No Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN N/A
Naps II/Aus: (V)/11 pts: AMBIKA/LOST - Bets: Basic Win+MopUp/Basic Place Only using my UK racing stats only BASIC PLAN -2
Naps II: (G)/14 pts: No selection - Bets typically: Basic Win+Basic Mop Up/Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN N/A
(Newly promoted to Basic Plan) Place Only III/Aus: (I)/14: 10 tips: 2xPL(incl1xW)8xL,0xN/r One of the worst days on record for these tips - Bets: Basic Place Only (occasionally Capped) BASIC PLAN -38
Place Only III/Naps (in mostly Naps Table order): (F)/25 pts: TOBOSA/LOST, JUMBALUKIBA/LOST, TESLIN/3RD/ESCAPE ROUTE/LOST/VERY WISE/LOST, ROYAL CONFIDENCE/LOST, TRIVIA/WON, AROMATHERAPY/Lost, ARMANA/2nd - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -27
A) Miscellaneous Tips
[(i) No Main tip from a paid subscription source OVERALL N/A] (ii) RP International Zone: M/6 pts: USA (Keen) ART MASTER/LOST, (RSA - Durb) ROMANTIC BLISS/3RD - Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL EVEN] (iii) (a) Aust/Free tips ("Bet4Place" - overnight): Now moved to NapsIII/Aus (b) (X)/11 pts: Misc.free tips ("Betinfo24"): Man U to win league, Port Vale to get promoted, Stoke City to be relegated, No tip today - Bets (on races) typically: Basic Place Only if poss or else Tiny Win [(b) OVERALL PENDING, but today N/A]; (iv) (I)/14 pts: Miscellaneous cards (i) (incl. Spotlight/Free Pricewise/on F/c Odds/or Fancies): NO GREATER LOVE/4TH, COASTAL PATH/WON, ECHO OF LIGHT/LOST, STAGE GIFT/LOST, TESLIN/3rd, PIPEDREAMER/WON, LINNGARI/LOST - Bets: Place Only [OVERALL -2] (v) B/10 pts: Anti-Post (Pricewise): SAGEBURG 14/1 Arc (Paddy Power), PIPEDREAMER/Won 7/1 Cambridgeshire (Bet365) - Bets: Basic at present [OVERALL +3]
B) Processed:
[(i) Endorsements over obstacles: Discontinued (until next Jumps season) OVERALL N/A]; (ii) Selection Boxes: (C)/15 pts: IROQUOIS WARRIOR/WON, ARMENIAN BOY/2ND - Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL +8]; (iii) NEW - B/10: "TABonline.com" (Australian organisation): No selections [?xPL(incl ?xW)?xL,?xN/R] applying my UK racing stats - Bets (when Bet4Place tips not available): Basic Place Only [OVERALL N/A]
MY GLOSSARY ON THE PHILOSOPHY (update pending)
AMD: an "alphabetical monitoring device" for non-level stakes betting. ... [To illustrate: at a glance, the sequence on Supplementaries was at its worst on 26th April, 2006 @ "ZW." I had brought it 'down' to "ZC" by 10th September, 2006. Today, for Supplementaries, it stands at "P." ...]
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