The Totopoly Kid - Bets for Oct 02 2007

The Totopoly Kid

Recent
Links
Categories
Friends
The Totopoly Kid I have come to punting very late in life - in retirement, in fact. But I was not new to racing when I did, for as a boy my favourite board-game was Totopoly and, in Australia at the time, I was taken a few times to magical Randwick, the Sydney racetrack.

Bets for Oct 02 2007

OUTCOME:  BASIC PLAN: +23 [OVERALL: +34]
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night): Short-list of 1: TROPICAL STRAIT/WON (Row 2). Excellent in my stats, but it is All Weather and Newmarket Opposes as the Odd-one-outer, hence Row 2 not 1. Aside from this, plus on TOBAR SUIL LADY/WON (Place Only II) & one Aussie selection/2ND, my stakes have computed extra low. Tropical Strait must Place at least to prevent an excessive reverse.
Summary Day 183 (wef 01/04/07) C/f to Oct 03 (Month07Wk1.3Day184Phase07BDay94) - BASIC PLAN Phase 07B (begun 01/July/07) surplus = +245 (within BASIC PLAN deficit of -497 (wef 01/Jan/06), of which -259* is within just 2007's OVERALL deficit of -676 ... to which I've reinstated (added) -5554 Overall for all of 2005 (Jan-Dec), and -11022 likewise for all of 2006 = **Provisional pre-Write-Off global figure = OVERALL deficit of -17287 pts.
Ave. of -1/day* for Basic Plan over 273 days since 01/01/07
2 x Win days ('Even' counts as a win, here - "If I haven't lost, I must have won.") on Basic Plan so far in Oct, 22 in Sep, 17 in Aug, 16 in July, 17 in June, 15 in May;14 in April, often small - a disappointing 1st quarter this financial year, but the Overall deficit is currently being chipped away E&OE.

Combo I (Press Corps) bets: (W)/Base Stake=11 pts: (see "AMD" in my Glossary): Xtra Combo+Mop Up on Tropical Strait/Won, I/8 pts: 123 Combo(Sequential Double)/NET LOSS+MopUps, J/7 pts: No "Diminished" Total Combo+Mop Ups (typically EWDoubles/EWTreble from Rows 1-3 + Naps I&II but not Place Only III/n), G/8 pts: 1/3rd share of Basic Total Combo(EWDoubles/EWTreble/NET LOSS)+Xtra(Win Double/LOST)+MopUps          BASIC PLAN +5
See below for Combo II (Naps Table) & Combo III (Miscellaneous tips).
Row 1: (X)/11 pts: No qualifier - Bets typically: Basic &, usually, [(W)/31] Flat Basic Star     BASIC PLAN N/A
Row 2: (N)/13 pts: TROPICAL STRAIT/Won F/c 10/11 - Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.81 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.71, Old odds stat stakes enhancer x 2.26 - Bets: Flat Basic+ Mop Up + Capped Basic Place Only, (W)/11 pts: Flat Basic FS (Base rung, technically)+ Capped Mop Up+Capped FS Basic Place Only; (U)12: Top-up on Capped Place bet (to full computed stats adjusted level) on (Aust) PRINCE OF STEEL/2ND, & a Flat Basic Place, & Win, Supplements (i.e., 12 pts each) added on TROPICAL STRAIT/Won; (W)11 pts: No Ad hoc Win Supplementary+No Mop Up, No Ad Hoc Basic Place Supplementary, (T)/12 pts: No Flat Remedial Supplementary (Base rung, technically)+Mop Up+Flat RS Basic Place Only, (VA)/31 pts: Short-list Place 'Combo'/WON+ Short-list Place Mop Up - see also note at "Place Only I" below, J/7 pts (re: corrective action when taken calculatedly) Mistake/s: Missed an Aussie winning bet [Negligible impact], Fees [-1], Accounting discrepancy [-3]     BASIC PLAN +11 [plus OVERALL +12]
Row 3: (F)/15 pts: No qualifier
Infiltrated on Support: (Boxes: 3xNaps,2xNBs, Opposed by 1xNap): CNOC MOY/BOMBED F/c 5/2 Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.45 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.69, Old Odds stat stakes reducer x 1.72; On General Support (Naps Table): No qualifier [Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x N/A Old stat stakes reducer x N/A] - Bets: Basic Place     BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only I: (L)/33: Short-list/WON Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.20, New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x see above, Old odds stat stakes enhancer x see above - Bets: Capped Basic     BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.49]
Place Only I/RSA: (K)/24: No qualifier - Bets: Usually Basic 1/3rd Open Place & 2/3rds Bookie Place, Capped sometimes     BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only II: (A)/30 pts: LORD PETER FLINT/WON F/c 15/8, DESERT HAWK/LOST F/c 3/1, TOBAR SUIL LADY/Won F/c 11/10, CNOC MOY/Lost F/c 5/2 - Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN +1

Combo II (Naps Table) - J/7 pts: No Diminished Total Combo+Mop Ups, H/8 pts: 2/3rd share of Basic Total Combo(EWDouble/EWTreble/Net loss)+Xtra+Mop Ups     BASIC PLAN -4
Combo III (Miscellaneous): E/9 pts: No bet - Bets: Basic Place Multiple    BASIC PLAN N/A
Naps I: (Y)/11 pts: No selection - Bets: Basic Win + Mop Up/ Basic Place Only     BASIC PLAN N/A
Naps II/Aus: (U)/12 pts: R7 (Town) PRINCE OF STEEL/2ND, net loss F/c 11/8 - Bets: Basic Win+Capped MopUp/Basic Place Only using my UK racing stats only     BASIC PLAN -1
Naps II: (G)/14 pts: BASIC FACT/2ND F/c 2/1, CNOC MOY/Lost F/c 5/2, TROPICAL STRAIT/Won F/c 10/11 (All Double stakes) - Bets: Basic Win+Basic Mop Up/Basic Place Only (Capped on Tropical S)     BASIC PLAN +9
Place Only III/Naps (in mostly Naps Table order): (J)/24 pts: SASSO/LOST F/c 7/2, BASIC FACT/2nd (Double stakes) F/c 2/1, CNOC MOY/Lost (Double stakes) F/c 5/2, FABULEAU CHERIE/2ND F/c 11/4, TROPICAL STRAIT/Won (Double stakes) F/c 10/11, ATLANTIC COAST/3RD F/c 3/1 - Bets: Basic (Capped on Tropical S)     BASIC PLAN +3

A) Miscellaneous Tips
[(i) No Main tip from a paid subscription source OVERALL N/A] (ii) RP International Zone: N/6 pts: USA (Dela) Race 6 LIFE IS A CABERNET F/c 2/1/Yesterday/LOST, (Phil) R8 WHAT A WARRIOR/LOST F/c 7/2, (RSA - Durb) 1225 CHAT ROOM/WON F/c 5/1- Bets: Basic Place Only     [OVERALL EVEN (+0.20)] (iii) (a) Aust/Free tips ("Bet4Place" - overnight): (K)/14 pts: 6 tips 3xPL(incl.0xW)3xL,0xN/r] - Bets: Basic Place Only (occasionally Capped) Missed winning bet (a) [OVERALL -3]; (b) (X)/11 pts: Misc.free tips ("Betinfo24"): Man U to win league, Port Vale to get promoted, Stoke City to be relegated, No tips today - Bets (on races) typically: Basic Place Only if poss or else Tiny Win     [(b) OVERALL PENDING, but today N/A]; (iv) (M)/13 pts: Miscellaneous cards (i) (incl. Spotlight/Free Pricewise/on F/c Odds/or Fancies): No selection - Bets: Place Only     [OVERALL N/A] (v) C/10 pts: Anti-Post (Pricewise): SAGEBURG 14/1 Arc (Paddy Power), PIPEDREAMER 7/1 Cambridgeshire (Bet365) - Bets: Basic at present     [OVERALL PENDING]

B) Processed:
[(i) Endorsements over obstacles: Discontinued (until next Jumps season) OVERALL N/A]; (ii) Selection Boxes: (E)/15 pts: KINGS JESTER/3RD F/c 5/2, BALAKER/2ND F/c 7/2, NO GREATER LOVE/WON F/c 11/4 - Bets: Basic Place Only     [OVERALL +2]; (iii) NEW - B/10: "TABonline.com" (Australian organisation): No selection [0xPL (incl 0xW)1xL,0x N/R] applying my UK racing stats - Bets (when Bet4Place tips not available): Basic Place Only     [OVERALL N/A]

MY GLOSSARY ON THE PHILOSOPHY (update pending)
AMD: an "alphabetical monitoring device" for non-level stakes betting. ... [To illustrate: at a glance, the sequence on Supplementaries was at its worst on 26th April, 2006 @ "ZW."  I had brought it 'down' to "ZC" by 10th September, 2006. Today, for Supplementaries, it stands at "P." ...]

Previous 218 of 611 Next

Disclaimer: BfBlogs is not an official Betfair site and is no way affiliated to Betfair. BfBlogs is not responsible for any posts or comments published that reflect bloggers views on any topic posted on the BfBlogs.com website.

Betfair User Blogs | Free Betfair Ebook | Betfair Tutorials | Exchange Forums | Punters Realm | Sports Tips Forum