2007-Oct-2
Bets for Oct 02 2007
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night): Short-list of 1: TROPICAL STRAIT/WON (Row 2). Excellent in my stats, but it is All Weather and Newmarket Opposes as the Odd-one-outer, hence Row 2 not 1. Aside from this, plus on TOBAR SUIL LADY/WON (Place Only II) & one Aussie selection/2ND, my stakes have computed extra low. Tropical Strait must Place at least to prevent an excessive reverse.
Summary Day 183 (wef 01/04/07) C/f to Oct 03 (Month07Wk1.3Day184Phase07BDay94) - BASIC PLAN Phase 07B (begun 01/July/07) surplus = +245 (within BASIC PLAN deficit of -497 (wef 01/Jan/06), of which -259* is within just 2007's OVERALL deficit of -676 ... to which I've reinstated (added) -5554 Overall for all of 2005 (Jan-Dec), and -11022 likewise for all of 2006 = **Provisional pre-Write-Off global figure = OVERALL deficit of -17287 pts.
Ave. of -1/day* for Basic Plan over 273 days since 01/01/07
2 x Win days ('Even' counts as a win, here - "If I haven't lost, I must have won.") on Basic Plan so far in Oct, 22 in Sep, 17 in Aug, 16 in July, 17 in June, 15 in May;14 in April, often small - a disappointing 1st quarter this financial year, but the Overall deficit is currently being chipped away E&OE.
Combo I (Press Corps) bets: (W)/Base Stake=11 pts: (see "AMD" in my Glossary): Xtra Combo+Mop Up on Tropical Strait/Won, I/8 pts: 123 Combo(Sequential Double)/NET LOSS+MopUps, J/7 pts: No "Diminished" Total Combo+Mop Ups (typically EWDoubles/EWTreble from Rows 1-3 + Naps I&II but not Place Only III/n), G/8 pts: 1/3rd share of Basic Total Combo(EWDoubles/EWTreble/NET LOSS)+Xtra(Win Double/LOST)+MopUps BASIC PLAN +5
See below for Combo II (Naps Table) & Combo III (Miscellaneous tips).
Row 1: (X)/11 pts: No qualifier - Bets typically: Basic &, usually, [(W)/31] Flat Basic Star BASIC PLAN N/A
Row 2: (N)/13 pts: TROPICAL STRAIT/Won F/c 10/11 - Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.81 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.71, Old odds stat stakes enhancer x 2.26 - Bets: Flat Basic+ Mop Up + Capped Basic Place Only, (W)/11 pts: Flat Basic FS (Base rung, technically)+ Capped Mop Up+Capped FS Basic Place Only; (U)12: Top-up on Capped Place bet (to full computed stats adjusted level) on (Aust) PRINCE OF STEEL/2ND, & a Flat Basic Place, & Win, Supplements (i.e., 12 pts each) added on TROPICAL STRAIT/Won; (W)11 pts: No Ad hoc Win Supplementary+No Mop Up, No Ad Hoc Basic Place Supplementary, (T)/12 pts: No Flat Remedial Supplementary (Base rung, technically)+Mop Up+Flat RS Basic Place Only, (VA)/31 pts: Short-list Place 'Combo'/WON+ Short-list Place Mop Up - see also note at "Place Only I" below, J/7 pts (re: corrective action when taken calculatedly) Mistake/s: Missed an Aussie winning bet [Negligible impact], Fees [-1], Accounting discrepancy [-3] BASIC PLAN +11 [plus OVERALL +12]
Row 3: (F)/15 pts: No qualifier
Infiltrated on Support: (Boxes: 3xNaps,2xNBs, Opposed by 1xNap): CNOC MOY/BOMBED F/c 5/2 Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.45 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.69, Old Odds stat stakes reducer x 1.72; On General Support (Naps Table): No qualifier [Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x N/A Old stat stakes reducer x N/A] - Bets: Basic Place BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only I: (L)/33: Short-list/WON Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.20, New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x see above, Old odds stat stakes enhancer x see above - Bets: Capped Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.49]
Place Only I/RSA: (K)/24: No qualifier - Bets: Usually Basic 1/3rd Open Place & 2/3rds Bookie Place, Capped sometimes BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only II: (A)/30 pts: LORD PETER FLINT/WON F/c 15/8, DESERT HAWK/LOST F/c 3/1, TOBAR SUIL LADY/Won F/c 11/10, CNOC MOY/Lost F/c 5/2 - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +1
Combo II (Naps Table) - J/7 pts: No Diminished Total Combo+Mop Ups, H/8 pts: 2/3rd share of Basic Total Combo(EWDouble/EWTreble/Net loss)+Xtra+Mop Ups BASIC PLAN -4
Combo III (Miscellaneous): E/9 pts: No bet - Bets: Basic Place Multiple BASIC PLAN N/A
Naps I: (Y)/11 pts: No selection - Bets: Basic Win + Mop Up/ Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN N/A
Naps II/Aus: (U)/12 pts: R7 (Town) PRINCE OF STEEL/2ND, net loss F/c 11/8 - Bets: Basic Win+Capped MopUp/Basic Place Only using my UK racing stats only BASIC PLAN -1
Naps II: (G)/14 pts: BASIC FACT/2ND F/c 2/1, CNOC MOY/Lost F/c 5/2, TROPICAL STRAIT/Won F/c 10/11 (All Double stakes) - Bets: Basic Win+Basic Mop Up/Basic Place Only (Capped on Tropical S) BASIC PLAN +9
Place Only III/Naps (in mostly Naps Table order): (J)/24 pts: SASSO/LOST F/c 7/2, BASIC FACT/2nd (Double stakes) F/c 2/1, CNOC MOY/Lost (Double stakes) F/c 5/2, FABULEAU CHERIE/2ND F/c 11/4, TROPICAL STRAIT/Won (Double stakes) F/c 10/11, ATLANTIC COAST/3RD F/c 3/1 - Bets: Basic (Capped on Tropical S) BASIC PLAN +3
A) Miscellaneous Tips
[(i) No Main tip from a paid subscription source OVERALL N/A] (ii) RP International Zone: N/6 pts: USA (Dela) Race 6 LIFE IS A CABERNET F/c 2/1/Yesterday/LOST, (Phil) R8 WHAT A WARRIOR/LOST F/c 7/2, (RSA - Durb) 1225 CHAT ROOM/WON F/c 5/1- Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL EVEN (+0.20)] (iii) (a) Aust/Free tips ("Bet4Place" - overnight): (K)/14 pts: 6 tips 3xPL(incl.0xW)3xL,0xN/r] - Bets: Basic Place Only (occasionally Capped) Missed winning bet (a) [OVERALL -3]; (b) (X)/11 pts: Misc.free tips ("Betinfo24"): Man U to win league, Port Vale to get promoted, Stoke City to be relegated, No tips today - Bets (on races) typically: Basic Place Only if poss or else Tiny Win [(b) OVERALL PENDING, but today N/A]; (iv) (M)/13 pts: Miscellaneous cards (i) (incl. Spotlight/Free Pricewise/on F/c Odds/or Fancies): No selection - Bets: Place Only [OVERALL N/A] (v) C/10 pts: Anti-Post (Pricewise): SAGEBURG 14/1 Arc (Paddy Power), PIPEDREAMER 7/1 Cambridgeshire (Bet365) - Bets: Basic at present [OVERALL PENDING]
B) Processed:
[(i) Endorsements over obstacles: Discontinued (until next Jumps season) OVERALL N/A]; (ii) Selection Boxes: (E)/15 pts: KINGS JESTER/3RD F/c 5/2, BALAKER/2ND F/c 7/2, NO GREATER LOVE/WON F/c 11/4 - Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL +2]; (iii) NEW - B/10: "TABonline.com" (Australian organisation): No selection [0xPL (incl 0xW)1xL,0x N/R] applying my UK racing stats - Bets (when Bet4Place tips not available): Basic Place Only [OVERALL N/A]
MY GLOSSARY ON THE PHILOSOPHY (update pending)
AMD: an "alphabetical monitoring device" for non-level stakes betting. ... [To illustrate: at a glance, the sequence on Supplementaries was at its worst on 26th April, 2006 @ "ZW." I had brought it 'down' to "ZC" by 10th September, 2006. Today, for Supplementaries, it stands at "P." ...]
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