2007-Oct-1
Bets for Oct 01 2007
PROSPECTS (as they seemed over-night): No short-list. Aside from on SILVER GUEST/NO RUN and - one of my odds stats is poor (11W23L), by the way - on INVENTOR/WON (plus one Aussie selection/3RD), my stakes again have computed low.
Summary Day 182 (wef 01/04/07) C/f to Oct 02 (Month07Wk1.2Day183Phase07BDay93) - BASIC PLAN Phase 07B (begun 01/July/07) surplus = +222 (within BASIC PLAN deficit of -520 (wef 01/Jan/06), of which -282* is within just 2007's OVERALL deficit of -710 ... to which I've reinstated (added) -5554 Overall for all of 2005 (Jan-Dec), and -11022 likewise for all of 2006 = **Provisional pre-Write-Off global figure = OVERALL deficit of -17287 pts.
Ave. of -1/day* for Basic Plan over 272 days since 01/01/07
1 x Win day ('Even' counts as a win, here - "If I haven't lost, I must have won.") on Basic Plan so far in Oct, 22 in Sep, 17 in Aug, 16 in July, 17 in June, 15 in May;14 in April, often small - a disappointing 1st quarter this financial year, but the Overall deficit is currently being chipped away E&OE.
Combo I (Press Corps) bets: (W)/Base Stake=11 pts: (see "AMD" in my Glossary): No Xtra Combo+Mop Up, I/8 pts: No 123 Combo, J/7 pts: No "Diminished" Total Combo+Mop Ups (typically EWDoubles/EWTreble from Rows 1-3 + Naps I&II but not Place Only III/n), H/8 pts: Half share of Basic Total Combo(EWDouble/NET WIN)+No Xtra+MopUps BASIC PLAN +0.50
See below for Combo II (Naps Table) & Combo III (Miscellaneous tips).
Row 1: (X)/11 pts: No qualifier - Bets typically: Basic &, usually, [(W)/31] Flat Basic Star BASIC PLAN N/A
Row 2: (N)/13 pts: No qualifier - [Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x N/A, Old odds stat stakes enhancer x N/A] -
Bets: No Flat Basic+ Mop Up + Capped Basic Place Only, (W)/11 pts: No Flat Basic FS (1st rung, technically)+ Capped Mop Up+Capped FS Basic Place Only; (U)12: Top-up on Capped Place bet (to computed stats adjusted level) on (Aust) REVY JAY/3RD, & a Flat Basic Place Supplement (i.e., 12 pts) added on (RSA) REKINDLE/WON; (W)11 pts: No Ad hoc Win Supplementary+No Mop Up, No Ad Hoc Basic Place Supplementary, (U)/12 pts: Added: Flat Remedial Supplementary (1st rung, technically)+ Mop Up + Flat RS Basic Place Only on INVENTOR/Won, (VA)/31 pts: No Short-list Place 'Combo'+ Short-list Place Mop Up - see also note at "Place Only I" below, K/7 pts: Mistake/s: Win bet on SAFARI SUNUP/WON, I thought a suspension was due to the race having started [+4], Fees [Nil], Accounting discrepancy [Negligible] [OVERALL +22]
Row 3: (F)/15 pts: No qualifier
Infiltrated on Support: (Boxes: 2xNaps,2xNBs): INVENTOR/Won F/c Evs Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.63 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.69, Old Odds stat stakes enhancer x 1.72; On General Support (Naps Table): No qualifier [Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x N/A Old stat stakes reducer x N/A] - Bets: Basic Place BASIC PLAN +2
Place Only I: (L)/33: No Short-list [Min value Place odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = N/A, New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x N/A, Old odds stat stakes enhancer x N/A] - Bets typically: Basic BASIC PLAN N/A
Place Only I/RSA: (L)/23: (Arli) Race 2 REKINDLE/Won F/c cEvs, R4 FOREST DUEL/2ND F/c c13/2 - Bets: Usually Basic 1/3rd Open Place & 2/3rds Bookie Place, Capped sometimes BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II: (ZA)/31 pts: SILVER GUEST/No run F/c 4/7, PROPAGANDA/UNSEATED F/c 11/8, YOUNG BERTIE/WON F/c 9/4, SUMMER RECLUSE/LOST F/c 9/2, SAFARI SUNUP/Won F/c 4/1/GOODWOOD STARLIGHT/NO RUN F/c 5/2 - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -2
Combo II (Naps Table) - J/7 pts: No Diminished Total Combo+Mop Ups, H/8 pts: Half share of Basic Total Combo(EWDouble/Net win)+No Xtra+Mop Ups BASIC PLAN +0.50
Combo III (Miscellaneous): F/9 pts: On POI/RSA qualifiers/WON (taking a chance) - Bets: Basic Place Multiple I have decided in future to do Combos on RSA races only if I can do Xtras/Mop Ups (The opening few races run too early for me, usually) An exception, today, fingers crossed BASIC PLAN +5
Naps I: (Y)/11 pts: No selection - Bets: Basic Win + Mop Up/ Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN N/A
Naps II/Aus: (U)/12 pts: R4 (Belm) REVY JAY/3rd F/c 6/4 - Bets: Basic Win+Capped MopUp/Basic Place Only using my UK racing stats only BASIC PLAN +3
Naps II: (H)/14 pts: RED CURRENT/3RD (Double stakes) F/c 11/4 - Bets: Basic Win+Basic Mop Up/Basic Place Only BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only III/Naps (in mostly Naps Table order): (I)/24 pts: RED OPERA/BOMBED F/c 11/4, RED CURRENT/3rd (Double stakes) F/c 11/4, SHELA HOUSE/WON F/c 4/1, SAFARI SUNUP/Won F/c 4/1/GOODWOOD STARLIGHT/No run F/c 5/2, NOUVEAU/WON F/c 7/1, PROPAGANDA/Unseated F/c 11/8, INVENTOR/Won F/c Evs - Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -1
A) Miscellaneous Tips
[(i) No Main tip from a paid subscription source OVERALL N/A] (ii) RP International Zone: N/6 pts: USA (Belm) VALID HUMOR F/c 8/1/yesterday/3RD, (Dela) Race 6 LIFE IS A CABERNET F/c 2/1/Late result, see tomorrow - Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL EVEN (+0.07)] (iii) (a) Aust/Free tips ("Bet4Place" - overnight): (K)/14 pts: 7 tips 5xPL(incl.1xW)1xL,1xN/r] - Bets: Basic Place Only (occasionally Capped) (a) [OVERALL +5]; (b) (X)/11 pts: Misc.free tips ("Betinfo24"): Man U to win league, Port Vale to get promoted, Stoke City to be relegated, No tips today - Bets (on races) typically: Basic Place Only if poss or else Tiny Win [(b) OVERALL PENDING, but today N/A]; (iv) (M)/13 pts: Miscellaneous cards (i) (incl. Spotlight/Free Pricewise/on F/c Odds/or Fancies): IR (Ross) MILLANYMARE/LOST F/c 5/2, (UK) INVENTOR/Won F/c Evs - Bets: Place Only [OVERALL EVEN (+0.44)] (v) C/10 pts: Anti-Post (Pricewise): SAGEBURG 14/1 Arc (Paddy Power), PIPEDREAMER 7/1 Cambridgeshire (Bet365) - Bets: Basic at present [OVERALL PENDING]
B) Processed:
[(i) Endorsements over obstacles: Discontinued (until next Jumps season) OVERALL N/A]; (ii) Selection Boxes: (D)/15 pts: FIRST TRIM/LOST F/c 9/4 - Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL -1]; (iii) NEW - B/10: "TABonline.com" (Australian organisation): No selection [0xPL (incl 0xW)1xL,0x N/R] applying my UK racing stats - Bets (when Bet4Place tips not available): Basic Place Only [OVERALL N/A]
MY GLOSSARY ON THE PHILOSOPHY (update pending)
AMD: an "alphabetical monitoring device" for non-level stakes betting. ... [To illustrate: at a glance, the sequence on Supplementaries was at its worst on 26th April, 2006 @ "ZW." I had brought it 'down' to "ZC" by 10th September, 2006. Today, for Supplementaries, it stands at "Q." ... ]
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